Charlie Hatcher secured the Republican nomination by defeating incumbent Andy Ogles in the August 2026 primary for Tennessee's 5th Congressional District, which was redrawn to include more rural counties and reduce Democratic-leaning areas around Nashville. The new map produced a district where Donald Trump won by more than 20 points in 2024, and Hatcher has since received Trump's general election endorsement. Recent internal polling from the Molder campaign shows Hatcher ahead 46% to 41% with 11% undecided, consistent with nonpartisan forecasts rating the seat Solid Republican. Chaz Molder, the Democratic nominee and Columbia mayor, has narrowed the gap through advertising and crossover appeals but faces structural headwinds. Late developments such as shifts in turnout among motivated voters or unforeseen events could still influence the November 3 outcome, though the district's partisan composition limits their likely impact.