Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and consistent results exceeding 70 percent for the incumbent in recent cycles. Long-serving Democratic Representative Gwen Moore faces only limited primary opposition ahead of the August 11 primary, while the Republican primary features a single candidate and minimal fundraising. These structural factors, combined with the absence of competitive general-election polling or major shifts in voter registration, underpin trader consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 3 general election. Potential disruptions remain limited to an unexpected primary upset or late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawal or significant scandal, though historical patterns in similarly rated districts suggest such events rarely alter outcomes in this environment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera WI-04
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera WI-04
$19,598 Vol.
$19,598 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
94%
Partito Repubblicano
4%
$19,598 Vol.
$19,598 Vol.
3 nov 2026
Partito Democratico
$6,339 Vol.
94%
Partito Repubblicano
$13,259 Vol.
4%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and consistent results exceeding 70 percent for the incumbent in recent cycles. Long-serving Democratic Representative Gwen Moore faces only limited primary opposition ahead of the August 11 primary, while the Republican primary features a single candidate and minimal fundraising. These structural factors, combined with the absence of competitive general-election polling or major shifts in voter registration, underpin trader consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 3 general election. Potential disruptions remain limited to an unexpected primary upset or late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawal or significant scandal, though historical patterns in similarly rated districts suggest such events rarely alter outcomes in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ET
Volume
$19,598Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and consistent results exceeding 70 percent for the incumbent in recent cycles. Long-serving Democratic Representative Gwen Moore faces only limited primary opposition ahead of the August 11 primary, while the Republican primary features a single candidate and minimal fundraising. These structural factors, combined with the absence of competitive general-election polling or major shifts in voter registration, underpin trader consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 3 general election. Potential disruptions remain limited to an unexpected primary upset or late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawal or significant scandal, though historical patterns in similarly rated districts suggest such events rarely alter outcomes in this environment.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WI-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$19,598Data di fine
3 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 28, 2026, 11:24 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Wisconsin’s 4th congressional district remains a strongly Democratic seat, with a Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+26 and consistent results exceeding 70 percent for the incumbent in recent cycles. Long-serving Democratic Representative Gwen Moore faces only limited primary opposition ahead of the August 11 primary, while the Republican primary features a single candidate and minimal fundraising. These structural factors, combined with the absence of competitive general-election polling or major shifts in voter registration, underpin trader consensus on a Democratic victory in the November 3 general election. Potential disruptions remain limited to an unexpected primary upset or late-cycle developments such as candidate withdrawal or significant scandal, though historical patterns in similarly rated districts suggest such events rarely alter outcomes in this environment.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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