Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin advanced comfortably from California's June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Charles Hoelter in the November 3 general election for the state's 15th congressional district. The district's strong Democratic registration advantage and consistent performance in recent cycles underpin trader consensus favoring Mullin at over 95 percent implied probability. Mullin secured roughly 65 percent in the primary, while Hoelter received about 18 percent, reflecting limited Republican support and negligible reported fundraising by the challenger. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic based on historical voting patterns and the incumbent's prior 73 percent general election margin in 2024. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-campaign developments such as scandals or significant shifts in voter turnout, though structural factors make substantial movement unlikely before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoVincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-15
Vincitore delle elezioni della Camera CA-15
$122,454 Vol.
$122,454 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Kevin Mullin (D)
96%
Charles Hoelter (R)
<1%
$122,454 Vol.
$122,454 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Kevin Mullin (D)
$94,144 Vol.
96%
Charles Hoelter (R)
$28,310 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin advanced comfortably from California's June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Charles Hoelter in the November 3 general election for the state's 15th congressional district. The district's strong Democratic registration advantage and consistent performance in recent cycles underpin trader consensus favoring Mullin at over 95 percent implied probability. Mullin secured roughly 65 percent in the primary, while Hoelter received about 18 percent, reflecting limited Republican support and negligible reported fundraising by the challenger. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic based on historical voting patterns and the incumbent's prior 73 percent general election margin in 2024. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-campaign developments such as scandals or significant shifts in voter turnout, though structural factors make substantial movement unlikely before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercato aperto: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Volume
$122,454Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin advanced comfortably from California's June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Charles Hoelter in the November 3 general election for the state's 15th congressional district. The district's strong Democratic registration advantage and consistent performance in recent cycles underpin trader consensus favoring Mullin at over 95 percent implied probability. Mullin secured roughly 65 percent in the primary, while Hoelter received about 18 percent, reflecting limited Republican support and negligible reported fundraising by the challenger. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic based on historical voting patterns and the incumbent's prior 73 percent general election margin in 2024. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-campaign developments such as scandals or significant shifts in voter turnout, though structural factors make substantial movement unlikely before election day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-15 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$122,454Data di fine
4 nov 2026Mercato aperto
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETRisolutore
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Kevin Mullin advanced comfortably from California's June 2026 top-two primary to face Republican Charles Hoelter in the November 3 general election for the state's 15th congressional district. The district's strong Democratic registration advantage and consistent performance in recent cycles underpin trader consensus favoring Mullin at over 95 percent implied probability. Mullin secured roughly 65 percent in the primary, while Hoelter received about 18 percent, reflecting limited Republican support and negligible reported fundraising by the challenger. Forecasters rate the seat as safe or solid Democratic based on historical voting patterns and the incumbent's prior 73 percent general election margin in 2024. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include major late-campaign developments such as scandals or significant shifts in voter turnout, though structural factors make substantial movement unlikely before election day.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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