NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball database records no bolides with total impact energy of 5 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater through mid-April 2026, despite a record surge in smaller fireballs during Q1—including a 0.25 kt event over Ohio and sonic booms from a 0.026 kt airburst near Houston—driving trader caution and positioning "No" as the market-implied consensus at 58.5%. The Sentry impact monitoring system lists no potential colliders for 2026, with recent close approaches like house-sized 2026 GD (April) and bus-sized 2026 EG1 (March) safely passing by. Historical CNEOS trends suggest such events occur roughly 0.5–1 times annually for ~0.5-meter meteoroids, yielding inherent uncertainty as detection favors landmasses over oceans; traders' skin-in-the-game assessment reflects this probabilistic flux, with continuous sensor updates likely to influence odds further.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSciopero di meteore da 5kt nel 2026?
Sciopero di meteore da 5kt nel 2026?
Sì
$292,037 Vol.
$292,037 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$292,037 Vol.
$292,037 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball database records no bolides with total impact energy of 5 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater through mid-April 2026, despite a record surge in smaller fireballs during Q1—including a 0.25 kt event over Ohio and sonic booms from a 0.026 kt airburst near Houston—driving trader caution and positioning "No" as the market-implied consensus at 58.5%. The Sentry impact monitoring system lists no potential colliders for 2026, with recent close approaches like house-sized 2026 GD (April) and bus-sized 2026 EG1 (March) safely passing by. Historical CNEOS trends suggest such events occur roughly 0.5–1 times annually for ~0.5-meter meteoroids, yielding inherent uncertainty as detection favors landmasses over oceans; traders' skin-in-the-game assessment reflects this probabilistic flux, with continuous sensor updates likely to influence odds further.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$292,037Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball database records no bolides with total impact energy of 5 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater through mid-April 2026, despite a record surge in smaller fireballs during Q1—including a 0.25 kt event over Ohio and sonic booms from a 0.026 kt airburst near Houston—driving trader caution and positioning "No" as the market-implied consensus at 58.5%. The Sentry impact monitoring system lists no potential colliders for 2026, with recent close approaches like house-sized 2026 GD (April) and bus-sized 2026 EG1 (March) safely passing by. Historical CNEOS trends suggest such events occur roughly 0.5–1 times annually for ~0.5-meter meteoroids, yielding inherent uncertainty as detection favors landmasses over oceans; traders' skin-in-the-game assessment reflects this probabilistic flux, with continuous sensor updates likely to influence odds further.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$292,037Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA's Center for Near-Earth Object Studies (CNEOS) fireball database records no bolides with total impact energy of 5 kilotons TNT equivalent or greater through mid-April 2026, despite a record surge in smaller fireballs during Q1—including a 0.25 kt event over Ohio and sonic booms from a 0.026 kt airburst near Houston—driving trader caution and positioning "No" as the market-implied consensus at 58.5%. The Sentry impact monitoring system lists no potential colliders for 2026, with recent close approaches like house-sized 2026 GD (April) and bus-sized 2026 EG1 (March) safely passing by. Historical CNEOS trends suggest such events occur roughly 0.5–1 times annually for ~0.5-meter meteoroids, yielding inherent uncertainty as detection favors landmasses over oceans; traders' skin-in-the-game assessment reflects this probabilistic flux, with continuous sensor updates likely to influence odds further.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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