Trader consensus favors "No" at 58.5% implied probability for a bolide airburst exceeding 5 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA CNEOS fireball data showing no qualifying events through mid-April despite a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs—the largest at 0.37 kt on March 17 over the northeast U.S. This absence over one-third of the year aligns with historical frequencies from infrasound analyses (Peter Brown et al.), estimating ~5-10 kt events globally every 1-2 years from undetected meter-class near-Earth objects. No cataloged NEOs pose impact risks for the remainder of 2026 per JPL's close approaches list, tempering odds amid inherent detection gaps; continued CNEOS and USGS monitoring could detect late-year developments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · AggiornatoSciopero di meteore da 5kt nel 2026?
Sciopero di meteore da 5kt nel 2026?
Sì
$292,037 Vol.
$292,037 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sì
$292,037 Vol.
$292,037 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus favors "No" at 58.5% implied probability for a bolide airburst exceeding 5 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA CNEOS fireball data showing no qualifying events through mid-April despite a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs—the largest at 0.37 kt on March 17 over the northeast U.S. This absence over one-third of the year aligns with historical frequencies from infrasound analyses (Peter Brown et al.), estimating ~5-10 kt events globally every 1-2 years from undetected meter-class near-Earth objects. No cataloged NEOs pose impact risks for the remainder of 2026 per JPL's close approaches list, tempering odds amid inherent detection gaps; continued CNEOS and USGS monitoring could detect late-year developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Mercato aperto: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$292,037Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.Trader consensus favors "No" at 58.5% implied probability for a bolide airburst exceeding 5 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA CNEOS fireball data showing no qualifying events through mid-April despite a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs—the largest at 0.37 kt on March 17 over the northeast U.S. This absence over one-third of the year aligns with historical frequencies from infrasound analyses (Peter Brown et al.), estimating ~5-10 kt events globally every 1-2 years from undetected meter-class near-Earth objects. No cataloged NEOs pose impact risks for the remainder of 2026 per JPL's close approaches list, tempering odds amid inherent detection gaps; continued CNEOS and USGS monitoring could detect late-year developments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$292,037Data di fine
31 dic 2026Mercato aperto
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 58.5% implied probability for a bolide airburst exceeding 5 kilotons TNT equivalent in 2026, driven by NASA CNEOS fireball data showing no qualifying events through mid-April despite a Q1 surge in smaller fireballs—the largest at 0.37 kt on March 17 over the northeast U.S. This absence over one-third of the year aligns with historical frequencies from infrasound analyses (Peter Brown et al.), estimating ~5-10 kt events globally every 1-2 years from undetected meter-class near-Earth objects. No cataloged NEOs pose impact risks for the remainder of 2026 per JPL's close approaches list, tempering odds amid inherent detection gaps; continued CNEOS and USGS monitoring could detect late-year developments.
Riepilogo sperimentale generato dall'AI con riferimento ai dati di Polymarket. Questo non è un consiglio di trading e non ha alcun ruolo nella risoluzione di questo mercato. · Aggiornato
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