The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom that Congressional Budget Office projections indicate will cover borrowing needs well into 2027 absent major deficit accelerations. Congress has adjusted the ceiling more than 100 times since World War II, with both parties consistently acting to maintain the full faith and credit of U.S. obligations and avoid disruptions to Treasury markets or entitlement payments. This institutional pattern, combined with Treasury extraordinary measures as a backstop, underpins traders’ 95.3% implied probability that no default occurs by the end of 2027. Late-session negotiations or unexpected fiscal pressures could still compress timelines, though historical incentives strongly favor resolution before any payment failure.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiUS defaults on debt by 2027?
US defaults on debt by 2027?
$15,053 Vol.
$15,053 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$15,053 Vol.
$15,053 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom that Congressional Budget Office projections indicate will cover borrowing needs well into 2027 absent major deficit accelerations. Congress has adjusted the ceiling more than 100 times since World War II, with both parties consistently acting to maintain the full faith and credit of U.S. obligations and avoid disruptions to Treasury markets or entitlement payments. This institutional pattern, combined with Treasury extraordinary measures as a backstop, underpins traders’ 95.3% implied probability that no default occurs by the end of 2027. Late-session negotiations or unexpected fiscal pressures could still compress timelines, though historical incentives strongly favor resolution before any payment failure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ET
Volume
$15,053Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom that Congressional Budget Office projections indicate will cover borrowing needs well into 2027 absent major deficit accelerations. Congress has adjusted the ceiling more than 100 times since World War II, with both parties consistently acting to maintain the full faith and credit of U.S. obligations and avoid disruptions to Treasury markets or entitlement payments. This institutional pattern, combined with Treasury extraordinary measures as a backstop, underpins traders’ 95.3% implied probability that no default occurs by the end of 2027. Late-session negotiations or unexpected fiscal pressures could still compress timelines, though historical incentives strongly favor resolution before any payment failure.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government fails to make a scheduled payment on any Treasury note, bond, or bill at any point between November 5, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
If Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, or Fitch publicly classify any U.S. sovereign debt as being in default during the qualifying period this will qualify for a “Yes” resolution.
The resolution source will be official information from the U.S. Department of the Treasury, Standard & Poor’s, Moody’s, and Fitch.
Volume
$15,053Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:49 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The July 2025 One Big Beautiful Bill Act raised the statutory debt limit by $5 trillion to $41.1 trillion, creating substantial headroom that Congressional Budget Office projections indicate will cover borrowing needs well into 2027 absent major deficit accelerations. Congress has adjusted the ceiling more than 100 times since World War II, with both parties consistently acting to maintain the full faith and credit of U.S. obligations and avoid disruptions to Treasury markets or entitlement payments. This institutional pattern, combined with Treasury extraordinary measures as a backstop, underpins traders’ 95.3% implied probability that no default occurs by the end of 2027. Late-session negotiations or unexpected fiscal pressures could still compress timelines, though historical incentives strongly favor resolution before any payment failure.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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