Negotiations between the United States and Iran remain centered on converting the April 2026 ceasefire into a durable settlement after months of direct and mediated talks. Recent developments include a late-May tentative memorandum of understanding to extend the truce by 60 days, reopen the Strait of Hormuz, ease certain sanctions, and launch fresh nuclear discussions focused on enriched uranium disposal. Final approval from President Trump and Iranian leadership is still pending, with reported amendments requested on timelines, enforcement, and performance commitments. Structural barriers persist around Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missiles, sanctions relief, and navigation rights, though both sides have signaled continued engagement through Pakistani and Qatari channels. Any permanent peace agreement would require explicit language ending hostilities and addressing these core disputes within the market's resolution window.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. Β· DiperbaruiIRGC closes Strait of Hormuz, fires on ships amid U.S. blockade
June 15 drops to 7%13%
The IRGC closed the Strait of Hormuz and fired on passing ships, heightening the risk of renewed conflict. The incident knocked the Juneβ15 outcome down to 7β―% and pushed the Juneβ30 price lower after a brief rally.
Diplomats scramble to formalize framework to end hostilities in Iran Nuclear Talks
By early June 2026, diplomats intensified efforts to formalize a framework addressing uranium enrichment, sanctions, and regional security, maintaining some optimism for a permanent peace deal despite ongoing military tensions.
Iran Nuclear Talks reach critical junction amid ongoing hostilities
December 31 dips to 71%2%
By early June, Iran Nuclear Talks reached a critical point with diplomats trying to formalize a framework to end hostilities, but ongoing military incidents and disputes over uranium enrichment continued, maintaining market uncertainty about a permanent peace deal.
Iranian supreme leader warns US military bases are no longer safe
On June 2, 2026, Iranβs supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei declared that US military bases in the Middle East were no longer safe, signaling a hardening stance amid ongoing negotiations and military tensions, which dampened market confidence in a near-term peace deal.
Trump expresses frustration over stalled talks and shutdown of further negotiations by Iran
June 30 drops to 26%11%
On June 1, 2026, President Trump expressed frustration over the shutdown of further talks by Iran due to planned Israeli attacks on Beirut, calling the negotiation process boring, which dampened market optimism for a near-term peace deal.
Trump calls US-Iran negotiation process 'very boring' as talks stall
June 7 drops to 7%5%
President Trump expressed frustration over the shutdown of further talks by Iran due to planned Israeli attacks on Beirut, dampening near-term peace deal expectations.
US Vice President and Iranian officials hold peace talks in Islamabad without agreement
June 30 dips to 66%4%
US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials met in Islamabad for peace talks, signaling diplomatic efforts to end hostilities. The talks ended without agreement, causing market uncertainty and a drop in near-term peace deal probabilities.
Trump delays final decision on Iran peace deal amid unresolved issues
June 7 plunges to 4%17%
Despite progress, President Trump delayed final approval of the Iran peace deal in late May, citing unresolved points such as Iran's nuclear program and sanctions. This uncertainty caused market prices for near-term resolution dates to decline sharply.
Reports of US-Iran peace deal draft circulated among allies including Israel
December 31 rises to 82%1%
President Trump circulated a draft peace agreement with Iran among allies including Israel to prevent ceasefire breaches and support a potential deal, reinforcing market optimism for a permanent peace deal by year-end.
Trump signals imminent decision on Iran peace deal amid mixed messages
December 31 drops to 71%10%
On May 29, 2026, President Trump indicated he was close to approving a peace deal with major Iranian concessions but expressed caution, causing market fluctuations. Iranian officials denied some reported terms, reflecting ongoing uncertainty about final agreement details.
US and Iran reach tentative 60-day ceasefire extension deal pending Trump approval
December 31 jumps to 78%7%
On May 28, US and Iranian negotiators reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and begin negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, pending President Trump's final approval. This raised market optimism but uncertainty remained due to pending approvals.
Treasury chief warns Oman of sanctions if it imposes Hormuz tolls
August 31 jumps to 53%12%
Bessent warned Oman against levying tolls on Hormuz traffic, signalling that the U.S. was still pressing for a permanent settlement, which helped temporarily lift the βAugustβ―31β odds to 53β―%.
Trump shares draft Iran peace agreement with allies including Israel
On May 28, 2026, President Trump circulated a draft peace agreement with allies including Israel to prevent ceasefire breaches and support a potential deal, signaling progress in negotiations and boosting market confidence.
President Trump circulates draft Iran peace agreement among allies including Israel
December 31 rises to 82%2%
President Trump shared a draft peace agreement with allies including Israel to prevent ceasefire breaches and support a potential deal, signaling progress in negotiations and boosting market confidence.
US and Iran reach deal pending Trump's final approval
December 31 rises to 80%2%
Reports on May 28 indicated that the US and Iran had reached a peace deal subject to final approval by President Trump, reflecting significant diplomatic progress and impacting market prices positively for longer-term outcomes.
US and Iran reach preliminary 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire, pending Trump's approval
June 30 surges to 75%34%
US and Iranian negotiators reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and start negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, pending President Trump's final approval. This was the most significant diplomatic breakthrough since the conflict began, raising market optimism.
US and Iran reach tentative 60-day ceasefire extension deal
June 7 drops to 19%12%
Negotiators reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days, but the requirement for Trump's final approval introduced near-term uncertainty.
US and Iran reach preliminary 60-day ceasefire extension deal pending Trump's approval
On May 28, 2026, US and Iranian negotiators reached a preliminary memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and start nuclear negotiations, but the deal awaited President Trump's final approval, causing market fluctuations.
US and Iran reach tentative memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire and start nuclear talks
October 31 surges to 69%19%
On May 28, US and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire for 60 days and begin negotiations on Iran's nuclear program, but final approval from President Trump was pending, causing mixed market reactions.
U.S. conducts airstrikes on Iranian missile sites in Hormuz
June 30 plunges to 28%33%
U.S. forces carried out strikes on Iranian missile sites in the Strait of Hormuz, undermining confidence that the ceaseβfire would hold and pulling the βJuneβ―30β odds down to 28β―% by early June.
US suspends βProject Freedomβ to facilitate Israel-Iran peace talks
June 30 jumps to 56%12%
The US President announced the suspension of βProject Freedomβ, a military operation designed to escort commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, as part of efforts to negotiate an agreement with Iran. This move was seen as a gesture to facilitate diplomatic negotiations aimed at reaching a final agreement with Iran, moderately boosting market optimism for a peace deal by June 30.
Trump ties any Iran peace deal to Abraham Accords
June 15 plunges to 16%56%
Trump publicly linked any permanent peace deal to the Abraham Accords, adding new conditionality that reduced market optimism for the βJuneβ―15β outcome (price fell from 72β―% to 16β―%).
Oil prices fall on hopes for US-Iran peace deal amid ongoing disputes
On May 25, 2026, oil prices fell on optimism about a US-Iran peace deal, despite remaining disputes over key issues including the Strait of Hormuz blockade. This reflected market anticipation of a deal but also uncertainty about final terms.
US military strikes Iranian missile sites amid ongoing peace talks
On May 25, 2026, US forces conducted strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and boats, described as defensive, amid ongoing peace negotiations. This military action introduced uncertainty and tempered market optimism for a near-term peace deal.
US military strikes Iran amid ongoing peace deal negotiations
June 30 drops to 59%10%
On May 25, 2026, the US military announced strikes against Iranian missile launch sites and boats, tempering expectations of peace despite ongoing negotiations. This military action introduced uncertainty and volatility in the market for near-term peace deals.
US suspends 'Project Freedom' to facilitate Israel-Iran peace talks
June 30 rises to 12%4%
The US President announced the suspension of 'Project Freedom,' a military operation escorting commercial ships through the Strait of Hormuz, as a gesture to facilitate diplomatic negotiations aimed at reaching a final agreement with Iran, seen as a positive indicator for peace talks.
US and Iran reach deal in principle to reopen Strait of Hormuz
December 31 surges to 81%27%
On May 24, 2026, a US official stated that the US and Iran had reached a deal in principle to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a key strategic point. This development was seen as a significant step toward peace, boosting market confidence in a permanent deal possibility, especially for the December 31 outcome.
Secretary of State Rubio signals possible peace deal announcement soon
July 31 surges to 53%20%
On May 24, 2026, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated that an announcement about the peace talks with Iran could come soon, raising market expectations. However, he cautioned that the deal might be time-limited and not a permanent peace agreement yet.
US and Iran near broader peace agreement; memorandum of understanding close to finalization
December 31 jumps to 73%10%
On May 24, 2026, reports indicated that the US and Iran were nearing a broader peace agreement following months of conflict and stalled negotiations. President Trump stated that a memorandum of understanding was close to finalization, raising market optimism for a permanent peace deal.
Trump announces US-Iran peace deal memorandum largely negotiated
December 31 surges to 72%18%
On May 24, 2026, President Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding pertaining to peace with Iran had been largely negotiated, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, raising market optimism for a permanent peace deal by the end of 2026.
Reports indicate US and Iran nearing broader peace agreement after months of stalled negotiations
December 31 drops to 75%6%
Reports on May 24 suggested that the US and Iran were close to a broader peace agreement, raising market optimism for a permanent deal by later dates.
US and Iran nearing broader peace agreement, memorandum of understanding close to finalization
December 31 jumps to 82%12%
On May 24, 2026, reports indicated that the US and Iran were close to finalizing a memorandum of understanding for a broader peace agreement, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, which raised market optimism for a permanent peace deal by the end of 2026.
Reports indicate US and Iran are close to finalizing peace framework
June 15 surges to 50%23%
Reports emerged that the US and Iran were nearing a broader peace agreement, though Secretary of State Marco Rubio cautioned that the deal might be time-limited.
US and Iran agree in principle to a deal to wind down the war, final approval pending
December 31 jumps to 81%6%
On May 24, 2026, a senior US official stated that the US and Iran had agreed in principle to a deal that could end the war, but final approval by leaders could take days. This news caused further price increases for longer-dated outcomes as the market anticipated a permanent peace deal.
Trump says peace deal still pending presidential signβoff
June 7 plunges to 6%66%
Trump announced that the deal still needed his signature, creating uncertainty and causing the market to tumble across all outcomes (e.g., βJuneβ―7β fell from 72β―% to 6β―%).
Iran accuses US of violating ceasefire amid ongoing negotiations
June 30 drops to 59%14%
On May 24, 2026, Iran's foreign ministry accused the US of violating the ceasefire with military strikes, casting doubt on the peace process and causing some market volatility.
USβIran unveil 60βday ceaseβfire extension framework
June 30 surges to 61%27%
U.S. and Iran released a joint framework that would extend the ceaseβfire 60β―days, deβmine the Strait of Hormuz and start nuclear negotiations. The concrete step boosted confidence for later dates, pushing the βJuneβ―30β price to 61β―% before it fell sharply.
Secretary of State Rubio signals imminent peaceβtalks announcement
December 31 jumps to 82%9%
Rubio indicated that an announcement on the peace talks could come soon, though he warned the deal might be timeβlimited. The comment lifted the βDecemberβ―31β odds to a peak of 82β―% and also raised the βJulyβ―31β price to 53β―% after a period of stagnation.
Trump states memorandum of understanding close to finalization
July 31 surges to 71%18%
US President Trump announced that a memorandum of understanding with Iran was close to being finalized, suggesting progress toward reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a ceasefire framework, which increased market optimism.
Trump announces near-finalized peace deal including Strait of Hormuz reopening
December 31 surges to 71%17%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump announced a near-finalized peace deal with Iran, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz and a 60-day ceasefire extension. This announcement significantly boosted market confidence for longer-term peace outcomes.
US and Iran to announce draft of peace deal within 24 hours
December 31 jumps to 75%10%
On May 23, 2026, top negotiators from the US and Iran approved a draft peace deal, which was sent to leaders of both nations for final approval. This development heightened market optimism for a permanent peace deal by the end of the year and mid-year dates.
Pakistan delegation visits Tehran to facilitate US-Iran talks amid tensions
June 30 surges to 75%34%
A Pakistani delegation met Iranian officials to arrange further US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expiration, raising hopes for diplomatic progress and boosting market optimism for a peace deal by June 30.
President Trump claims peace deal with Iran largely negotiated
December 31 surges to 81%18%
On May 23, President Trump claimed that a peace deal with Iran had been largely negotiated after calls with a Pakistani mediator and regional leaders, raising market optimism significantly for longer-dated outcomes.
President Trump announces Iran peace deal 'largely negotiated' after regional talks
December 31 jumps to 65%11%
President Trump announced on social media that a peace deal with Iran was 'largely negotiated' following calls with Gulf allies, Pakistan, and Israel. This announcement significantly boosted market optimism for a permanent peace deal, though Iran had not officially confirmed the deal, causing some uncertainty.
Reports of near-finalized US-Iran memorandum of understanding to extend ceasefire
December 31 surges to 71%17%
On May 23, reports emerged that the US and Iran were close to finalizing a memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire and start nuclear negotiations, boosting market optimism significantly for longer-term peace deal outcomes.
US and Iran expected to announce draft peace deal within 24 hours
June 15 surges to 50%30%
A source close to negotiations reported on May 23, 2026, that the US and Iran were expected to announce a finalized draft proposal of a peace deal by the next day. This raised market expectations for a near-term agreement, impacting prices positively.
Reports indicate US and Iran nearing broader peace agreement
December 31 jumps to 88%14%
On May 23, 2026, reports emerged that the US and Iran were close to finalizing a memorandum of understanding for peace, boosting market prices significantly for longer-term outcomes.
Trump says a USβIran peace deal is βlargely negotiatedβ and Hormuz will reopen
December 31 surges to 88%17%
Trump proclaimed on social media that a peace deal had been βlargely negotiatedβ and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened. The claim sparked a brief rally in the Decemberβ31 outcome, which rose to a high of 88β―% on Mayβ―24 before retreating.
Trump says peace deal with Iran βlargely negotiatedβ
December 31 surges to 88%23%
Trump posted on social media that a memorandum of understanding on a peace deal with Iran was βlargely negotiatedβ. The optimism drove the market to its highest point (88β―% on 24β―May) for the βDecemberβ―31β outcome.
President Trump announces near-finalized peace agreement draft with Iran
December 31 surges to 76%22%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump announced a near-finalized peace agreement draft with Iran, including reopening the Strait of Hormuz, boosting market confidence significantly for longer-term peace deal outcomes.
President Trump states Iran deal largely negotiated and Strait of Hormuz to reopen
December 31 surges to 70%16%
On May 23, 2026, President Trump announced that an agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, signaling significant progress in talks and boosting market confidence for diplomatic meetings by later dates.
Trump announces peace deal with Iran is 'largely negotiated'
December 31 surges to 88%26%
President Trump announced that a broader agreement with Iran had been largely negotiated, including the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, causing a massive surge in market optimism.
President Trump announces peace deal largely negotiated and Strait of Hormuz to reopen
December 31 surges to 88%17%
On May 23, President Trump announced that a peace deal with Iran had been largely negotiated and that the Strait of Hormuz would be reopened, significantly boosting market confidence for later resolution dates.
Market optimism rises on reports of improved US-Iran diplomatic talks
December 31 rises to 71%4%
Reports indicated ongoing indirect talks between the US and Iran were progressing despite setbacks, with some optimism expressed by analysts and officials. This led to a modest increase in market prices for longer-dated peace deal outcomes.
US-Iran talks planned in Pakistan amid ongoing ceasefire efforts
December 31 jumps to 72%5%
US President Trump announced plans for US negotiators to head to Pakistan for further talks with Iran, maintaining diplomatic momentum despite military tensions, which supported market gains for longer-term peace outcomes.
Vice President Vance leads new U.S. delegation to Pakistan for Iran talks
July 31 surges to 55%15%
Vance announced a new U.S. diplomatic push in Pakistan, signalling a possible fresh round of talks. The optimism lifted the βJulyβ―31β price from 40β―% to 55β―% by Mayβ―21.
New Iran peace proposal triggers tense Trump-Netanyahu call
June 30 jumps to 54%14%
A new peace effort aimed at securing tangible commitments from Iran on its nuclear program led to a tense call between Trump and Netanyahu, reflecting regional skepticism and complicating peace prospects.
U.S. forces disable two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
December 31 rises to 71%3%
U.S. forces disabled two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, reaffirming the blockadeβs forceful enforcement. This renewed military pressure nudged the βDecemberβ―31β price upward from 68β―% to 71β―% on Mayβ―21.
Trump pauses planned military attack after Iran sends peace proposal
December 31 jumps to 71%6%
President Trump announced he had paused a planned attack on Iran following receipt of a peace proposal from Tehran, indicating a 'very good chance' of reaching a deal. This caused a significant price increase in the market for a permanent peace deal.
Trump claims planned attack on Iran postponed after Tehran makes new proposal to end war
May 31 surges to 30%16%
President Trump postponed a planned attack on Iran following a new peace proposal from Tehran, which temporarily raised hopes for a peace deal and influenced market optimism.
Regional leaders urge US to hold off military attack as serious negotiations take place
December 31 surges to 79%16%
On May 18, regional leaders including Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and UAE asked the US to delay planned military attacks on Iran due to ongoing serious negotiations, briefly boosting market optimism for a peace deal.
Trump and Netanyahu discuss Iran talks and regional security
December 31 rises to 69%1%
President Trump and Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu met to discuss ongoing negotiations with Iran and regional security issues, emphasizing continued US pressure on Iran. This meeting underscored the complexity of the peace process and contributed to mixed market reactions.
Trump pauses planned attack after Iran sends peace proposal, signals deal possible
December 31 jumps to 71%9%
On May 18, President Trump announced a pause in planned military action against Iran following receipt of a peace proposal from Tehran, indicating a 'very good chance' of reaching a deal. This caused a significant price increase in the market for a permanent peace deal.
U.S. maintains naval blockade despite ceaseβfire expiration
The United States announced the blockade would remain in force after the ceaseβfire expired, confirming no imminent permanent settlement and pushing the market to its lowest point.
Iranβs foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid stalled talks; Trump cancels envoy trip
May 22 dips to 6%1%
Iranβs foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Pakistan to continue indirect talks, but President Trump canceled sending envoys due to lack of progress, suggesting phone talks instead. This uncertainty contributed to low market confidence in a peace deal by May 22.
President Trump sends nuclear proposal to Iran urging swift progress
June 15 dips to 18%2%
On May 16, 2026, President Trump sent a nuclear proposal to Iran, warning that swift progress was necessary to avoid serious consequences, signaling a critical moment in negotiations and impacting market prices for mid-June outcomes.
Oil prices dip as markets anticipate possible USβIran agreement
December 31 jumps to 69%6%
Falling oil prices reflected optimism that a deal might be near, briefly lifting the price for the Decemberβ31 outcome.
US extends ceaseβfire at Pakistanβs request while awaiting unified Iranian proposal
December 31 rises to 77%3%
The extension temporarily lifted odds for the Decemberβ31 outcome, reflected in a price rise that day.
Iranβs economy suffers from soaring inflation amid blockade
Reports of hyperβinflation and economic strain in Iran reduced optimism that Tehran would compromise, further lowering the marketβs peace odds.
Trump says he is reviewing new Iranian proposal but skeptical of deal
May 15 dips to 0%1%
President Trump announced he was reviewing a new Iranian peace proposal but expressed skepticism about its acceptability, indicating ongoing negotiation challenges. This contributed to a further decline in market optimism for a peace deal by May 15.
Trump meets Netanyahu, insists US talks with Iran continue
December 31 rises to 67%4%
President Trump met with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu and emphasized that US negotiations with Iran would continue despite challenges. This meeting underscored ongoing diplomatic efforts, supporting market optimism for a longer-term peace deal by year-end.
Iran detains leading humanβrights lawyer Nasrin Sotoudeh
May 15 drops to 0%7%
The crackdown on dissent signaled internal instability in Iran, further weakening expectations of a durable peace and pushing the May 15 price to zero.
Trump rejects Iranβs latest peace proposal, citing fractured leadership
May 31 dips to 10%4%
President Trump publicly rejected Iranβs latest peace proposal, expressing dissatisfaction and blaming Iranβs fractured leadership, which dampened market optimism for a near-term permanent peace deal.
Iranβs president calls for βfair and equitableβ negotiations amid US drone shootdown
December 31 rises to 67%4%
Iranβs president instructed the foreign minister to pursue fair negotiations with the US, signaling Tehranβs interest in diplomacy despite military tensions including a US shootdown of an Iranian drone. This nuanced stance maintained some market optimism for a peace deal by year-end.
Iranian reformists detained amid crackdown during nuclear talks with US
June 30 dips to 34%4%
Iran's security forces arrested reformist figures amid nationwide protests and ongoing nuclear negotiations with the US, signaling internal political instability. This crackdown likely dampened market confidence in a near-term peace deal due to increased domestic tensions in Iran.
Iran's chief negotiator issues ultimatum to US to accept peace proposal or face failure
June 30 drops to 25%9%
Iran's chief negotiator warned the US to accept Tehran's 14-point peace proposal or face failure, highlighting stalled negotiations and reducing market confidence in near-term peace agreements.
Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi says Tehran will not compromise on nuclear issue
June 30 plunges to 38%17%
Araghchiβs hardβline statement reduced optimism for any nearβterm agreement, further depressing the Juneβ30 odds.
Iranian foreign minister returns to Pakistan for renewed negotiations
May 31 drops to 24%7%
The foreign ministerβs visit was seen as a concrete step toward a diplomatic resolution, briefly stabilizing market sentiment for the Mayβ―31 outcome before subsequent setbacks.
US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials hold peace talks in Islamabad
May 31 dips to 28%3%
On April 11-12, 2026, US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials met in Islamabad for peace talks, but no agreement was reached, leading to some market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
Trump says he will not send envoys to Pakistan for talks
Trump cancelled the planned envoy trip, signaling a retreat from diplomatic engagement and further depressing market expectations of a permanent deal.
Trump cancels US envoysβ trip to Pakistan for Iran talks, suggests phone call instead
June 30 drops to 41%13%
US President Trump called off the planned envoy mission to Pakistan for follow-up talks with Iran, citing lack of progress, and proposed phone negotiations, signaling stalled diplomacy and reducing market optimism for a near-term deal.
USβIran ceasefire set to expire, no new deal announced
May 31 plunges to 8%28%
The imminent expiry of the ceasefire without a fresh agreement reinforced market pessimism, pushing prices down to their lowest levels for the Mayβ31 deadline.
Iran detains reformist leaders amid postβprotest crackdown
May 22 dips to 4%3%
A crackdown on reformist figures after nationwide protests signaled internal instability in Tehran, reducing confidence that Iran could negotiate a durable peace. The βMayβ―22β price fell from 7β―% to 4β―% on Mayβ―11β12.
US Navy disables two more Iranian tankers, raising ceaseβfire doubts
June 15 dips to 16%1%
Continued US interdictions further eroded confidence in a swift settlement, pulling down the Juneβ15 odds to their lowest level.
Trump calls Iranβs response to peace plan βtotally unacceptableβ as ceasefire frays
May 31 rises to 12%1%
President Trump rejected Iranβs counterproposal to end the war, calling it totally unacceptable and highlighting ongoing divisions. This rejection caused market confidence to decline for near-term peace deal dates.
Trump announces βProject Freedomβ to guide ships out of Hormuz, then pauses it
December 31 drops to 70%8%
The brief opening of the strait raised optimism, but the sudden pause signaled uncertainty, causing a modest dip in Yes prices across all dates.
Trump extends ceasefire but maintains naval blockade on Iran
December 31 drops to 71%7%
President Trump extended the ceasefire between the US and Iran but insisted on maintaining the naval blockade, signaling ongoing conflict risks. This mixed message caused market fluctuations and uncertainty about a permanent peace deal by mid-2026.
U.S. blockade leads to seizure of additional Iranian tankers
May 13 drops to 0%14%
Further interdictions reinforced the perception that the conflict was far from resolution, pushing the market for the May 13 outcome toward zero.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 31 dips to 10%2%
US forces engaged Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating military tensions and casting doubt on the ceasefire's stability, negatively impacting market confidence in near-term peace deals.
Iranβs Revolutionary Guard fires on additional vessels
Further attacks on commercial shipping reinforced the perception that Iran would not relent without a definitive agreement, pushing odds lower.
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
May 15 drops to 5%10%
A direct military engagement by U.S. forces heightened tensions and signaled a possible escalation, causing the market to sharply downgrade the chances of any peace deal before Mayβ―15.
Rubio says Iranβs new Strait authority is βunacceptableβ
June 30 jumps to 43%10%
Rubio publicly demanded that Iran cease operating a newly created βPersian Gulf Strait Authority,β heightening diplomatic pressure. The announcement coincided with a brief rally in the βJuneβ―30β market, lifting it from 33β―% to 43β―% on Mayβ―9β10.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions
May 31 drops to 13%6%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanges of fire, undermining the fragile ceasefire and raising doubts about the prospects for a permanent peace deal. The incident contributed to market declines for near-term resolution dates.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid rising Strait of Hormuz tensions
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanges of fire in the Strait of Hormuz, challenging the fragile ceasefire and raising doubts about the prospects for a permanent peace deal. The US awaited a serious offer from Iran to end the war.
Trump warns Iran against rebuilding nuclear program, urges deal
December 31 rises to 67%4%
President Trump publicly warned Iran not to rebuild its nuclear program and expressed belief that Iran wants a deal, reflecting ongoing US pressure and signaling potential for future agreement.
Iran announces a new 14βpoint proposal via Pakistan
May 31 plunges to 12%19%
The proposal raised hopes for a deal but the lack of immediate acceptance kept the market bearish for the earliest deadline.
U.S. fires on and disables 2 Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 11%8%
U.S. forces fired on and disabled two Iranian oil tankers after exchanging fire with Iranian forces, casting more doubt on the ceasefire and raising market volatility.
Trump hosts Congo and Rwanda leaders for US-mediated peace deal
December 31 rises to 67%4%
President Trump celebrated a US-mediated peace deal between Congo and Rwanda, showcasing his peacemaking efforts globally. While unrelated directly to US-Iran relations, this event briefly boosted Trump's image as a dealmaker, slightly supporting optimism for a US-Iran peace deal by December 31.
Pakistan mediators report progress toward a new U.S.βIran agreement
June 30 surges to 54%20%
Positive statements from Pakistani officials lifted market sentiment, temporarily raising Yes prices for the later June 30 and December 31 horizons.
Trump says Iran has offered a βmuch betterβ proposal
May 15 dips to 5%4%
Trumpβs comment that Iranβs latest offer was substantially improved revived optimism for a quick deal, causing a shortβterm price uptick for the May 15 outcome.
US and Iran close to one-page memorandum to end war, peace proposal under review
December 31 jumps to 65%11%
Reports indicated that the US and Iran were close to agreeing on a one-page memorandum to end the war, with Iran reviewing the US peace proposal. This raised market optimism, reflected in price increases for longer-dated outcomes.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranianβflagged cargo ship near Hormuz
The seizure heightened tensions and suggested the ceaseβfire was fragile, prompting a sharp drop in market confidence for a permanent peace.
U.S. Navy shoots down Iranian fast boats near the Strait
May 31 plunges to 19%25%
A direct military engagement further diminished hopes for a quick settlement, sharply reducing the May 31 and June 30 probabilities.
President Trump pauses 'Project Freedom' amid progress toward US-Iran agreement
December 31 rises to 66%4%
Trump announced a pause in military operations called 'Project Freedom' due to requests from Pakistan and other countries and progress toward a US-Iran agreement, briefly boosting market optimism.
Trump says Iran has sent a βmuch betterβ proposal via Pakistan
July 31 dips to 46%1%
Trumpβs comment that Iranβs new proposal was βmuch betterβ revived optimism for a permanent deal, pushing the Julyβ31 odds higher.
Trump hints at βshoot and killβ policy against small boats in Hormuz
May 15 drops to 7%8%
Escalatory rhetoric raised the prospect of renewed combat, pushing Yes prices lower for the nearβterm May 15 deadline.
Trump rejects Iranβs latest peace proposal
President Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iranβs new proposal, reinforcing the perception that a permanent deal was unlikely and driving prices down.
Trump reviews new Iranian proposal to end war but remains skeptical
May 15 plunges to 0%15%
President Trump announced he was reviewing a new 14-point Iranian proposal to end the war but expressed doubt it would be acceptable, reflecting ongoing negotiation challenges. This tempered market optimism for a permanent peace deal by mid-May and end of May.
Asian markets rally on hopes of renewed USβIran talks
A brief rally in Asian equities on reports that diplomats were working on a new round of talks gave a modest lift to market optimism, temporarily halting the price decline.
Asian markets rally on hopes of renewed USβIran talks
May 31 dips to 12%2%
Stocks rose in Asia after reports that backβchannel diplomacy was progressing, briefly boosting confidence in a May 31 settlement.
Trump rejects Iranβs latest peace proposal, citing fractured leadership
May 31 drops to 11%6%
President Trump rejected Iranβs latest proposal to end the war, expressing dissatisfaction and blaming Iranβs fractured leadership. This rejection dampened hopes for a near-term permanent peace deal, causing market prices for earlier resolution dates to fall.
Asian markets rally on hopes of renewed USβIran negotiations
December 31 rises to 74%4%
Positive market sentiment from Asian equities reflected optimism about diplomatic talks, nudging the Decemberβ31 odds upward.
President Trump rejects Iranβs latest peace proposal citing fractured leadership
May 31 plunges to 11%19%
President Trump publicly rejected Iranβs latest peace proposal, expressing dissatisfaction and blaming Iranβs fractured leadership. This rejection dampened hopes for a near-term permanent peace deal, causing market prices for earlier resolution dates to fall sharply.
U.S. extends the naval blockade of Iranian ports for another week
May 22 dips to 4%3%
The extension signaled continued pressure on Tehran, reducing confidence that a deal would be signed before the May 22 deadline.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers amid Strait of Hormuz tensions
June 30 drops to 34%10%
US forces engaged Iranian oil tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating military tensions and casting doubt on the ceasefire's stability, which negatively impacted market confidence in a near-term peace deal.
Trump rejects Iranβs latest peace proposal, citing fractured leadership
May 31 drops to 12%5%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran's latest proposal to end the war, expressing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran's fractured leadership. This rejection dampened market hopes for a near-term permanent peace deal.
Iranβs foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid stalled talks; Trump calls off envoy trip
June 30 drops to 35%5%
Iranβs foreign minister briefly returned to Pakistan to pursue ceasefire talks, but President Trump canceled the US envoy mission citing lack of progress, opting for phone negotiations instead. This uncertainty contributed to declining market confidence for a peace deal by June 30 and July 31.
Iran announces reopening of the Strait of Hormuz
After a brief reopening, Iran closed the strait again, creating volatility that pushed market odds down further.
U.S. warns shipping firms of sanctions for paying Iran to transit Hormuz
May 31 dips to 14%4%
The sanctions warning added economic pressure on Iran and signaled a tougher U.S. stance, pushing market prices for later deadlines lower.
Iran and US agree to hold nuclear talks in Oman
December 31 jumps to 69%7%
Iranian Foreign Minister announced nuclear talks with the US to be held in Oman, signaling a willingness to negotiate despite ongoing tensions. This development increased market confidence in a potential peace deal by the end of the year.
Iran submits new proposal to reopen Strait of Hormuz in exchange for lifting blockade
Iran offered to reopen the Strait of Hormuz if the US lifts its naval blockade and agrees to a long-term truce, deferring nuclear talks. The US found the offer better but unlikely to accept it without addressing nuclear issues, causing market uncertainty.
Trump says Iran has sent a βmuch betterβ proposal but he remains unsatisfied
June 15 dips to 14%4%
The mixed signal kept the market uncertain, leading to a modest decline for the midβterm outcomes.
Iranβs foreign minister returns to Pakistan but US cancels envoy trip
June 15 dips to 18%2%
Iranβs foreign minister briefly returned to Pakistan amid efforts to reignite talks, but President Trump canceled the US envoy mission due to lack of progress, suggesting phone talks instead. This development lowered market confidence in a near-term peace deal, reflected in price drops for May 31 and June 15 outcomes.
Iranβs foreign minister briefly returns to Pakistan before heading to Moscow
June 15 dips to 14%3%
The brief return created confusion about the status of negotiations, further dampening market optimism for a quick deal.
Iranβs foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid stalled envoy mission
December 31 dips to 63%1%
Iranβs foreign minister briefly returned to Pakistan as US envoy mission was canceled by Trump due to lack of progress, signaling stalled direct talks and increasing uncertainty about a near-term permanent peace deal.
Trump cancels US envoysβ trip to Pakistan, suggests phone talks with Iran
December 31 jumps to 74%11%
President Trump called off the planned US envoy mission to Pakistan for follow-up talks with Iran, citing lack of progress, but indicated willingness to talk by phone, reflecting stalled direct negotiations and causing mixed market reactions.
Diplomats work through backβchannels to arrange a new USβIran round of talks
June 30 plunges to 55%15%
Backβchannel efforts signaled possible progress, modestly improving odds for the Juneβ30 and Julyβ31 outcomes after a period of decline.
Trump rejects Iranβs latest peace proposal as unsatisfactory
The presidentβs dismissal of a new Iranian proposal reduced expectations of a deal, causing another price decline.
Iranβs foreign minister returns to Pakistan amid stalled talks; Trump calls off envoy trip
June 30 dips to 31%4%
Iranβs foreign minister briefly returned to Pakistan to pursue negotiations, but President Trump canceled the planned envoy visit due to lack of progress, signaling stalled diplomacy and reducing market confidence in a near-term peace deal.
Trump says Iran has offered a βmuch betterβ peace proposal
December 31 jumps to 78%8%
President Trump publicly noted that Iran had submitted a more favorable proposal, raising hopes for a settlement and pushing the marketβs probability for a Decemberβ31 deal higher.
Iranβs foreign minister says Iran sent a βmuch betterβ proposal
Iranian officials reported sending a revised 14βpoint proposal to the United States, raising hopes for a deal but ultimately failing to move the market upward.
Trump says US envoys will not travel to Islamabad for Iran talks
Trumpβs decision to cancel the planned envoy trip signaled a further stall in negotiations, prompting another price decline.
Iran sends 'much better' proposal to U.S. after Trump cancels talks
Iran sent a 'much better' proposal to the U.S. shortly after Trump canceled the talks mission, providing a brief positive market signal.
Iranβs foreign minister returns briefly to Pakistan; Trump suggests phone talks
May 31 dips to 11%1%
Iranβs foreign minister made a brief return to Pakistan amid ongoing mediation efforts, but President Trump indicated that future talks could occur by phone rather than in-person, reflecting stalled diplomacy and uncertainty about a permanent peace deal soon.
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks, suggests phone calls instead
December 31 drops to 70%8%
President Trump called off the planned trip of US envoys to Pakistan for follow-up talks with Iran, citing lack of progress, and proposed phone negotiations. This move dampened market optimism for a near-term peace deal.
Trump cancels Iran talks delegation to Pakistan
June 15 surges to 35%15%
Trump canceled the mission to send envoys to Pakistan after a lack of progress with Iran, suggesting the sides could talk by phone instead, which caused market uncertainty.
Iranβs foreign minister leaves Pakistan amid stalled US-Iran talks
June 30 plunges to 46%20%
Iranβs Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi departed Islamabad after talks failed to produce a permanent peace deal, with Iran expressing skepticism about US seriousness, leading to market declines in near-term deal probabilities.
Iranβs top diplomat leaves Pakistan; Trump cancels envoy trip
May 31 drops to 12%7%
Iranβs foreign minister left Pakistan abruptly, and President Trump announced he had told US envoys not to travel to Islamabad for further talks, signaling a breakdown in scheduled negotiations and reducing near-term optimism for a permanent peace deal.
Iranian foreign minister returns to Pakistan, Trump says talks can be by phone
Araghchiβs brief return and Trumpβs refusal to send envoys signaled stalled diplomacy, pulling Yes prices down.
Iranβs foreign minister shares Iranβs position on permanent peace framework in Pakistan
December 31 jumps to 63%9%
Iranβs Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi met Pakistani officials to discuss Iranβs red lines for negotiations and shared Iranβs position on a workable framework to permanently end the war, signaling ongoing but cautious diplomacy that maintained market uncertainty.
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 15 drops to 0%10%
President Trump called off the planned US delegation trip to Pakistan for follow-up talks with Iran, citing lack of progress. This move dampened market optimism for a near-term peace deal and contributed to price declines for earlier resolution dates.
Trump cancels US envoysβ trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
June 15 dips to 17%3%
President Trump called off the planned US delegation trip to Pakistan due to lack of progress, suggesting talks could continue by phone, which dampened near-term market confidence in a peace deal but left longer-term hopes intact.
Trump cancels planned US delegation to Pakistan for Iran talks
June 30 plunges to 33%36%
The cancellation removed a key diplomatic channel, causing the market to price in a longer timeline for any agreement.
Trump rejects Iranβs latest proposal to end the war
May 31 drops to 12%6%
President Trump rejected Iran's latest peace proposal delivered via Pakistani mediators, citing dissatisfaction and blaming Iran's fractured leadership. This rejection dampened market optimism, causing a decline in prices for near-term peace deal outcomes like May 31 and June 15.
Diplomats work to arrange new US-Iran talks amid ongoing blockade and threats
December 31 jumps to 71%7%
Following the US blockade and Iran's threats, diplomats sought to organize another round of talks, with Pakistan playing a key role. Despite the fragile ceasefire, the market showed cautious optimism for a longer-term peace deal but remained skeptical about near-term resolution.
Trump cancels US envoys' trip to Pakistan for Iran talks
May 31 drops to 12%7%
President Trump called off the planned US delegation trip to Pakistan for further talks with Iran, signaling a setback in negotiations and increasing uncertainty about reaching a permanent peace deal soon.
Trump cancels envoy trip to Pakistan for Iran talks, suggests phone negotiations
June 30 dips to 50%3%
President Trump called off the planned envoy trip to Pakistan for direct talks with Iran, citing lack of progress, and proposed phone discussions instead. This indicated stalled negotiations and increased uncertainty about a peace deal, impacting market confidence negatively for near-term outcomes.
Trump rejects Iranβs latest peace proposal, citing dissatisfaction
US President Trump publicly rejected Iranβs latest peace proposal, citing dissatisfaction and blaming Iranβs fractured leadership. This rejection dampened market confidence in a near-term peace deal and contributed to price declines for earlier resolution dates.
Iranian threats and US blockade strain ceasefire in Strait of Hormuz
May 31 dips to 28%2%
US forces disabled two Iranian tankers amid rising tensions in the Strait of Hormuz, with Iran formalizing control over the waterway, increasing doubts about the ceasefire's durability and peace prospects.
Trump rejects Iranβs latest peace proposal, citing fractured leadership
May 31 plunges to 38%23%
President Trump publicly rejected Iran's latest proposal to end the war, expressing dissatisfaction and highlighting Iran's fractured leadership. This rejection dampened near-term optimism for a peace deal, reflected in falling market prices for May 31 and May 15 outcomes.
Trump rejects Iranβs latest peace proposal, citing fractured leadership
June 15 dips to 17%3%
President Trump rejected Iranβs latest proposal to end the war, expressing dissatisfaction and blaming Iranβs fractured leadership, which dampened hopes for a near-term peace deal and led to a decline in market prices for earlier resolution dates.
Trump extends ceasefire with Iran indefinitely amid ongoing talks
December 31 jumps to 66%12%
President Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire with Iran, signaling a temporary halt in fighting but no permanent peace deal. This maintained some market optimism but underscored unresolved major issues.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in Strait of Hormuz
July 31 drops to 38%12%
US forces disabled two Iranian oil tankers attempting to breach the blockade, escalating military tensions in the Strait of Hormuz. This action cast doubt on the ceasefire's durability and reduced market optimism for a peace deal by June 30 and July 31.
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to ease tensions and arrange talks
December 31 rises to 67%4%
Pakistan, acting as a mediator, engaged with Iranian officials to facilitate further US-Iran talks and extend the ceasefire. Reports of an 'in principle agreement' to extend the ceasefire raised hopes for diplomacy, temporarily boosting market optimism for a peace deal.
Trump orders U.S. forces to βshoot and killβ small boats in Hormuz
May 15 drops to 9%6%
Trumpβs aggressive directive signaled a willingness to use force, further eroding market expectations of a diplomatic resolution before the May 15 deadline.
Iran fires on ships in Strait of Hormuz amid US blockade
May 31 drops to 32%6%
Iranian forces fired on ships attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz, escalating military tensions and undermining ceasefire stability. This increased doubts about a permanent peace deal by May 31 and June 30.
US fires on and disables two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 13%9%
The US naval action further escalated the standoff, pushing market sentiment toward a βNoβ outcome for all dates, especially the nearβterm Mayβ31 option.
U.S. forces fire on and disable two Iranian tankers in the Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 34%22%
The direct engagement signaled a possible escalation, sharply reducing the probability of a nearβterm peace deal.
Trump orders U.S. Navy to βshoot and killβ small boats in Hormuz
President Trump announced a hardβline military directive to target Iranian vessels, signaling escalation and driving the market sharply lower.
Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire but maintains naval blockade
June 15 dips to 18%2%
President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran but insisted on maintaining the US naval blockade of Iranian ports, signaling continued economic pressure and unresolved conflict. This mixed message kept market confidence low for a permanent peace deal by June 15 and June 30.
Ceasefire between US and Iran expires amid stalled talks
May 15 plunges to 0%15%
The expiration of the ceasefire without a new agreement heightened tensions and uncertainty. Both sides remained divided on key issues such as Iran's nuclear program and control of the Strait of Hormuz, leading to market declines for near-term peace deal probabilities.
Diplomats attempt backβchannel talks amid US blockade
Backβchannel efforts were reported but no concrete progress was announced, keeping market expectations low for any nearβterm permanent agreement.
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to push for more US-Iran talks
December 31 rises to 67%4%
Pakistan's army chief met with Iran's foreign minister to ease tensions and arrange a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expires. This diplomatic effort briefly raised hopes for a deal, reflected in a temporary price increase for the December 31 outcome.
Pakistani mediators work to arrange new US-Iran ceasefire talks as tensions rise
Pakistan continued efforts to mediate between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire and reach a peace deal amid ongoing military tensions and economic sanctions. This sustained diplomatic engagement supported market optimism for a longer-term peace agreement.
Iran seizes ships in Strait of Hormuz despite US ceasefire extension
June 30 drops to 34%12%
Despite the ceasefire extension, Iranian forces fired on and seized multiple vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions and disrupting a critical global trade route. This action challenged the fragile truce and raised doubts about the prospects for a permanent peace deal, negatively impacting market confidence.
US extends ceasefire with Iran amid ongoing negotiations
December 31 rises to 78%4%
President Trump indefinitely extended the ceasefire agreed with Iran, signaling willingness to continue diplomacy despite ongoing military and economic tensions. This extension provided some market support for a potential peace deal.
Pakistan mediates progress toward extending US-Iran ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 64%10%
Pakistani officials reported an 'in principle agreement' between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire, with ongoing talks involving Iran's foreign minister and Pakistan's army chief. This diplomatic progress briefly raised market optimism for a peace deal extension.
President Trump extends ceasefire indefinitely pending Iran proposal
December 31 jumps to 74%6%
President Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely on April 21, 2026, until Iran submitted a proposal to end the conflict. This extension maintained market optimism but also introduced uncertainty about the timeline for a permanent deal.
Trump announces indefinite extension of IranβU.S. ceaseβfire
June 30 plunges to 41%32%
Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceaseβfire while maintaining the blockade, signaling no imminent settlement. The mixed message caused the βJuneβ―30β price to wobble around the lowβ40β―% range, down from the highβ70β―% peak a week earlier.
Lebanon and Israel hold first direct talks in decades brokered by US
December 31 jumps to 64%10%
Lebanon and Israel conducted historic direct diplomatic talks in Washington, facilitated by the US, signaling regional diplomatic progress. However, Hezbollah opposed the talks, and the conflict with Iran-backed groups continued, limiting immediate impact on US-Iran peace prospects.
President Trump extends US ceasefire with Iran indefinitely pending proposal submission
President Trump extended the two-week ceasefire indefinitely, citing a fractured Iranian government and awaiting a unified Iranian proposal to end the war, which maintained market cautiousness.
US Navy seizes Iranianβflagged cargo ship near Hormuz
May 13 drops to 14%8%
The seizure heightened tensions and suggested the ceasefire could collapse, prompting traders to sharply reduce the probability of a permanent agreement before the May 13 deadline.
U.S. and Iran resume indirect talks in Pakistan after blockade
December 31 jumps to 70%7%
Backβchannel negotiations were reported to be underway, offering a glimmer of diplomatic progress that temporarily boosted the marketβs outlook for a deal by the end of the year.
Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire but maintains naval blockade
June 30 drops to 57%9%
President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran indefinitely while keeping the naval blockade, signaling ongoing conflict risk and unresolved issues. This mixed message affected market confidence, especially for near-term peace deal dates.
Trump extends ceaseβfire but maintains blockade
Trumpβs announcement of an indefinite ceaseβfire extension offered a brief optimism boost, nudging Yes prices upward.
US President Trump rejects Iranβs latest peace proposal
June 15 dips to 17%3%
Trumpβs public dismissal of Iranβs proposal lowered expectations for any imminent agreement, causing a sharp drop in the Juneβ15 and Juneβ30 odds.
U.S. extends the ceaseβfire for another week
The White House announced an extension of the fragile ceaseβfire, temporarily easing market concerns and causing a modest rebound in prices.
Pakistan mediates US-Iran talks aiming to extend ceasefire and negotiate peace
December 31 jumps to 64%10%
Pakistan hosted direct talks between the US and Iran, with officials reporting an 'in principle agreement' to extend the ceasefire and continue diplomacy. This development raised hopes for a peace deal, reflected in modest market optimism for longer-term resolution dates.
President Trump extends the USβIran ceasefire indefinitely
June 15 rises to 21%1%
The extension offered a brief reprieve but did not resolve core issues, causing only a modest rebound in market confidence for later deadlines.
Pakistan mediates between US and Iran amid talks to extend ceasefire
June 30 surges to 66%25%
Pakistani officials engaged with Iranian and US representatives to bridge differences and extend the ceasefire, signaling some diplomatic progress and temporarily boosting market optimism for a peace deal.
Trump extends USβIran ceaseβfire indefinitely, maintains blockade
December 31 surges to 71%17%
President Trump announced an indefinite extension of the Aprilβ―7 twoβweek ceaseβfire while keeping the U.S. naval blockade in place. The announcement was interpreted as a willingness to keep diplomatic channels open, pushing the marketβs βDecemberβ―31β odds up from the lowβ50s to the midβ70s percent range.
President Trump extends ceasefire indefinitely until Iran submits peace proposal
June 30 surges to 70%20%
On April 21, 2026, President Trump unilaterally extended the ceasefire indefinitely until Iran submits a proposal to end the conflict, signaling continued diplomatic efforts and temporarily boosting market confidence for a peace deal by later dates.
Sen. Graham backs naval blockade as pressure on Iran
July 31 plunges to 39%16%
Grahamβs public support for maintaining the naval blockade signaled a tougher U.S. stance, which corresponded with a modest decline in the βJulyβ―31β odds (from ~55β―% to 39β―% by early June).
President Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely amid ongoing talks
July 31 drops to 39%11%
President Trump extended the two-week ceasefire indefinitely on April 21, citing a fractured Iranian government and the need for Iran to submit a unified peace proposal. This extension maintained diplomatic momentum but underscored the fragility of the ceasefire, influencing market prices downward for nearer-term deals.
President Trump unilaterally extends US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely
December 31 surges to 71%17%
President Trump announced an indefinite extension of the two-week ceasefire to allow both sides to continue peace talks, which significantly boosted long-term peace expectations.
President Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely but maintains naval blockade
December 31 jumps to 68%14%
President Trump announced an indefinite extension of the ceasefire to allow Tehran more time to submit a peace proposal, while maintaining a naval blockade on Iranian ports. This cautious extension kept diplomatic hopes alive but underscored unresolved tensions, causing mixed market reactions.
President Trump extends Iran ceasefire indefinitely until Iran submits peace proposal
President Trump unilaterally extended the two-week ceasefire indefinitely on April 21, 2026, until Iran submits a proposal to end the conflict, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts and temporarily boosting market confidence for later peace deal dates.
President Trump extends US ceasefire with Iran indefinitely
President Trump extended the two-week ceasefire indefinitely until Iran submits a proposal to end the conflict, signaling ongoing diplomatic efforts but also uncertainty. This extension temporarily boosted market confidence for peace deals by later dates.
President Trump extends US-Iran ceasefire indefinitely citing fractured Iranian government
June 30 surges to 67%26%
President Trump extended the ceasefire indefinitely, citing Iran's fractured leadership, which maintained some market optimism but underscored unresolved issues and uncertainty about a permanent peace deal.
US seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz, Iran vows swift response
May 13 plunges to 0%22%
The US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to evade the blockade, marking a ceasefire violation and escalating tensions. President Trump announced US negotiators would attend talks in Pakistan, but Iran had not confirmed participation, maintaining uncertainty about peace progress.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
June 30 dips to 53%1%
The US Navy intercepted and seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the naval blockade near the Strait of Hormuz, provoking Iran's vow of swift response. This incident increased hostilities and uncertainty about peace negotiations.
U.S. Navy seizes an Iranianβflagged cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz
July 31 dips to 47%3%
The seizure underscored the risk of direct conflict, further eroding confidence in a swift diplomatic resolution.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
The US Navy seized an Iranian cargo ship attempting to evade the blockade, prompting Iran to vow a swift response and casting doubt on the ceasefire's durability. This heightened tensions and lowered short-term peace deal probabilities.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 26 drops to 10%9%
The US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the naval blockade, prompting Iran to vow a swift response and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This incident increased market uncertainty and lowered confidence in a peace deal by May 31 and May 26.
US Navy seizes Iranian-flagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 19%11%
The US Navy seized an Iranian-flagged cargo ship attempting to evade the naval blockade, prompting Iran to vow swift retaliation. This military escalation cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire and the prospects for imminent peace talks, negatively impacting market confidence for near-term deals.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranianβflagged cargo ship near the Strait
The first seizure since the blockade signaled a direct confrontation, further eroding market confidence in a swift peace settlement.
U.S. Navy seizes Iranianβflagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 30%14%
U.S. forces seized an Iranianβflagged cargo ship near the Strait of Hormuz, the first interception since the blockade began. The aggressive action deepened doubts about the ceaseβfireβs durability, causing a sharp drop in the βMayβ―31β price from 44β―% to 30β―% on Aprilβ―20.
Trump rejects Iranβs latest peace proposal
May 31 drops to 23%8%
President Trump publicly said he was not satisfied with Iranβs newest offer, removing any immediate optimism for a deal and causing a further drop in market confidence for all outcomes.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
June 15 drops to 12%6%
Iranβs Revolutionary Guard announced a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz and began firing on vessels, reversing a brief reopening. This escalation pushed the βJuneβ―15β market down to singleβdigit levels as traders saw the warβending outlook receding.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
June 30 drops to 54%11%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard closed the Strait of Hormuz again and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions with the US naval blockade. This heightened conflict risk and economic disruption, reducing market optimism for a quick permanent peace deal.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships amid US blockade
Iran's Revolutionary Guard closed the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions and threatening global energy supplies. This action challenged the fragile ceasefire and reduced market confidence in a near-term peace deal.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on passing ships
December 31 jumps to 63%9%
The IRGC announced a full closure of the strategic waterway and engaged vessels, dramatically raising the risk of continued conflict and lowering market confidence in a permanent peace deal.
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz again, fires on ships amid US blockade
June 30 drops to 57%9%
Iran's Revolutionary Guard fully closed the strategic Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting passage, escalating military tensions and threatening the fragile ceasefire, reducing confidence in a near-term permanent peace deal.
Iran closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships after US blockade
May 31 plunges to 28%16%
Iran fully closed the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass in retaliation to the US naval blockade, escalating tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire, negatively impacting near-term peace deal probabilities.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
Iranβs Revolutionary Guard announced a full closure of the Strait of Hormuz and opened fire on vessels, intensifying the strategic standoff and pushing market odds down sharply.
Iran fully closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships in response to US blockade
May 31 drops to 20%10%
Iran reversed its reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and fired on ships attempting to pass, escalating tensions after the US blockade of Iranian ports. This action threatened to deepen the conflict and caused a drop in market confidence for a near-term peace deal, with prices falling notably for the June 30 and May 31 outcomes.
Iranian Revolutionary Guard closes Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
May 31 drops to 31%9%
Iranβs IRGC announced the complete closure of the strategic waterway and engaged vessels, signaling a hardening stance that pushed market prices for a peace deal sharply lower.
Iranβs Revolutionary Guard closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on passing ships
June 30 drops to 34%7%
The closure heightened the strategic stakes and suggested Iran would not concede without significant pressure, pushing down prices for all outcomes.
Iranβs Revolutionary Guard closes the Strait of Hormuz and fires on ships
Iranβs closure of the strategic waterway heightened the risk of renewed hostilities, causing a sharp decline in Yes probabilities for all dates.
Historic face-to-face US-Iran talks in Pakistan end without agreement
June 30 dips to 66%4%
A 21-hour direct negotiation between US and Iranian delegations in Pakistan failed to produce a permanent peace deal, with nuclear program disputes cited as a key sticking point. This maintained uncertainty and limited near-term deal prospects.
Iranβs foreign minister returns to Pakistan for renewed talks
June 30 surges to 70%29%
Abbas Araghchiβs brief visit raised hopes of a diplomatic breakthrough, temporarily lifting odds for the Juneβ30 and Julyβ31 outcomes.
Iranβs foreign minister returns to Pakistan for renewed talks
Iranβs foreign minister Abbas Araghchi briefly returned to Islamabad, suggesting a possible restart of negotiations, which lifted the market slightly before the ceaseβfire deadline.
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to arrange US-Iran talks before ceasefire ends
June 30 dips to 54%3%
Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister in Tehran to ease tensions and arrange a second round of US-Iran negotiations before the ceasefire expiration. This diplomatic move raised hopes for progress, temporarily supporting market optimism for a peace deal by June 30.
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to set up new U.S.βIran talks
July 31 jumps to 45%7%
A Pakistani delegation met Iranian officials in Islamabad to arrange a second round of U.S.βIran talks before the ceaseβfire expired. The news lifted hopes for a quick settlement, pushing the βJulyβ―31β price up from the lowβ40s to the midβ50s.
Pakistani delegation meets Iranian officials to ease tensions
December 31 jumps to 74%11%
Pakistan, acting as a mediator, engaged with Iranian officials to facilitate further US-Iran talks and reported an 'in principle agreement' to extend the ceasefire, boosting hopes for diplomacy.
Pakistan mediates US-Iran talks showing progress toward ceasefire extension
June 30 surges to 70%29%
Pakistani officials reported an 'in principle agreement' between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire, with ongoing talks involving Iran's foreign minister and Pakistan's army chief. This diplomatic progress raised market optimism for a peace deal by June 30.
Pakistan emerges as key mediator in US-Iran talks to extend ceasefire
May 31 surges to 55%25%
Pakistan hosted direct talks between the US and Iran, with officials reporting an 'in principle agreement' to extend the ceasefire and continue diplomacy, briefly boosting market confidence in a peace deal by May 31.
Diplomats work through back channels to arrange a new USβIran round of talks
May 31 drops to 31%13%
Backβchannel efforts raised hopes for renewed negotiations, temporarily boosting the marketβs optimism for a nearβterm deal.
Pakistan mediates progress toward extending US-Iran ceasefire
December 31 jumps to 54%13%
Pakistani officials reported an 'in principle agreement' between the US and Iran to extend the ceasefire, raising hopes for further diplomacy despite ongoing tensions and the US blockade. This improved market sentiment for longer-term peace outcomes.
Iranβs Revolutionary Guard fires on ships attempting to pass the Strait of Hormuz
May 31 drops to 22%6%
Iranβs aggressive action heightened tensions and reduced market confidence that a permanent peace could be achieved before the ceaseβfire expires, further depressing the Mayβ31 and Juneβ15 odds.
Diplomats work to arrange new US-Iran talks amid US blockade
December 31 jumps to 64%10%
Diplomats engaged in back-channel efforts to schedule a new round of talks between the US and Iran following the US blockade of Iranian ports. President Trump indicated talks could occur within two days in Islamabad, signaling potential progress and raising market optimism for a peace deal.
US announces naval blockade of Iranian ports after failed Pakistan talks
May 31 drops to 30%14%
Following unsuccessful ceasefire talks in Pakistan, US President Donald Trump declared a military blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into accepting a deal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. This escalation increased tensions and reduced near-term peace deal probabilities.
Pakistan pushes for new US-Iran talks amid fragile ceasefire
December 31 surges to 71%30%
Pakistan's diplomatic efforts to arrange a second round of US-Iran negotiations raised hopes for a peace deal, temporarily boosting market confidence for later resolution dates. The talks aimed to bridge differences after the initial round failed to end the conflict.
Historic face-to-face talks between US and Iran in Pakistan end without agreement
June 30 surges to 70%29%
The first round of direct talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan lasted 21 hours but ended without an agreement, highlighting the difficulty of reaching a permanent peace deal. This event initially raised hopes but ultimately led to market uncertainty.
US imposes military blockade on Iranian ports amid stalled talks
June 30 drops to 59%7%
Following failed ceasefire talks in Pakistan, President Trump announced a US naval blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a peace deal, escalating tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This move caused market confidence in near-term peace deals to drop.
Diplomats work to arrange a new round of U.S.βIran talks
Backβchannel efforts by Pakistani officials and the UN to restart negotiations signaled possible progress, temporarily boosting confidence in a peace outcome.
US Navy seizes Iranianβflagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
The seizure heightened tensions and suggested the US would maintain pressure on Iran, reducing optimism for a swift permanent settlement.
US announces naval blockade of Iranian ports amid stalled talks
June 30 surges to 70%29%
President Trump declared a military blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a deal, following failed ceasefire talks in Pakistan. This escalated tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, negatively impacting near-term peace deal probabilities.
US enacts naval blockade of Iranian ports amid stalled talks
May 31 plunges to 27%17%
The US announced a military blockade of all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a peace deal, raising tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This blockade was part of an effort to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and accept a deal, but Iran threatened retaliation, increasing market uncertainty.
President Trump announces a full naval blockade of all Iranian ports
May 22 dips to 4%3%
Trump declared the U.S. would maintain a blockade until Tehran agrees to a deal, signaling a hardβline stance and lowering expectations for a quick peace agreement.
Diplomats work to arrange new US-Iran talks amid US blockade
June 30 surges to 71%30%
On April 14, diplomats engaged in back-channel efforts to schedule new talks between the US and Iran following the US blockade of Iranian ports. President Trump indicated talks could occur in Islamabad soon, raising hopes and causing a rally in related markets.
US announces military blockade of all Iranian ports amid stalled talks
June 30 surges to 70%29%
President Trump declared a US military blockade on all Iranian ports following failed ceasefire talks in Pakistan, escalating tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This move aimed to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz and accepting a peace deal, causing market uncertainty about a permanent agreement by June 30.
US imposes naval blockade on Iranian ports amid stalled talks
May 31 plunges to 27%17%
Following failed ceasefire talks in Pakistan, President Trump announced a US naval blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a peace deal. This escalated tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, impacting market confidence in a near-term permanent peace agreement.
Pakistan mediates US-Iran talks aiming to extend ceasefire
June 30 surges to 82%41%
Pakistan's army chief met Iran's foreign minister to ease tensions and arrange further US-Iran talks before the ceasefire expiration. Reports indicated an 'in principle agreement' to extend the ceasefire, raising hopes for diplomacy but without a permanent deal yet.
U.S. announces full naval blockade of Iranian ports
June 30 surges to 70%29%
President Trump declared a comprehensive blockade of Iranβs ports, signaling a hardening U.S. stance and prompting traders to downgrade the likelihood of any nearβterm peace agreement.
US imposes naval blockade on Iran after failed Islamabad talks
June 30 drops to 34%7%
Following the failure of Islamabad talks, the US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, escalating tensions and reducing market confidence in a near-term peace deal, reflected in declining prices for earlier resolution dates.
US President Trump announces military blockade of all Iranian ports
May 31 plunges to 28%16%
Trump declared a US naval blockade on all Iranian ports to pressure Iran into reopening the Strait of Hormuz and accepting a deal to end the war. This escalated tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, negatively impacting market optimism for near-term peace.
U.S. announces naval blockade of Iranian ports
May 31 dips to 40%4%
President Trump declared a fullβscale naval blockade of all Iranian ports, intensifying pressure on Tehran and prompting traders to downgrade the odds of a permanent peace deal before any deadline.
President Trump announces full naval blockade of Iranian ports
Trump declared a comprehensive blockade aimed at pressuring Iran to negotiate a permanent peace, raising market optimism that a deal might be forced and pushing Yes prices higher across all horizons.
US imposes naval blockade on Iranian ports following failed Islamabad talks
May 31 plunges to 27%17%
Following failed ceasefire talks in Pakistan, President Trump announced a US naval blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a peace deal. This escalated tensions and cast doubt on the fragile ceasefire, impacting market confidence in a near-term permanent peace agreement.
Trump imposes U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports
May 31 surges to 76%32%
President Trump announced a blockade of Iranian ports as part of efforts to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and accept a deal to end the war, raising tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire.
US announces naval blockade of Iranian ports starting April 13
June 30 dips to 51%4%
Following failed talks, the US imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports, escalating tensions and reducing market confidence in a permanent peace deal by June 30.
US Navy seizes Iranianβflagged cargo ship near Strait of Hormuz
May 31 plunges to 28%16%
The seizure signaled a hardening US stance, undermining confidence that a permanent deal could be reached soon and pushing down odds for all outcomes, especially the nearβterm Mayβ31 date.
US Navy begins naval blockade of Iranian ports
May 31 plunges to 30%25%
The US military initiated a naval blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a peace deal, escalating tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This caused market confidence in near-term peace deals to drop.
Trump declares full U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports
December 31 jumps to 54%8%
President Trump announced a full naval blockade of all Iranian ports, prompting the Iranian Revolutionary Guard to threaten retaliation and close the Strait of Hormuz. The heightened military stance drove the marketβs early upward swing for the βDecemberβ―31β and βJulyβ―31β outcomes as traders priced in increased pressure for a peace deal before the ceaseβfire deadline.
Iranβs foreign minister returns to Pakistan for talks, Trump opts for phone call
Iranβs top diplomat briefly visited Islamabad while Trump said the sides could discuss the deal by phone, underscoring stalled faceβtoβface negotiations and further depressing market sentiment.
US imposes naval blockade on Iranian ports amid stalled talks
May 31 drops to 30%14%
The US announced a naval blockade of Iranian ports to pressure Iran into a peace deal, escalating tensions and casting doubt on the fragile ceasefire. This move followed failed initial talks in Pakistan and was intended to force Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz and accept a deal.
First direct diplomatic talks between Lebanon and Israel in Washington
The first direct talks between Lebanon and Israel, mediated by the United States, signaled a possible regional deβescalation, briefly lifting market pessimism and nudging prices up.
US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials meet in Islamabad for peace talks
December 31 drops to 63%6%
Diplomatic talks between US and Iranian officials in Islamabad signaled efforts to negotiate a peace deal, but no agreement was reached, causing some market uncertainty and price fluctuations.
U.S. Vice President Vance holds talks with Iranian officials in Islamabad
July 31 surges to 50%17%
U.S. Vice President Vance met Iranian officials in Islamabad. The talks ended without a deal, but the very fact of highβlevel contact caused a modest rise in the βJulyβ―31β odds from 33β―% to 50β―% over the next two weeks.
US Vice President and Iranian officials hold peace talks in Islamabad
May 31 plunges to 27%17%
On April 11, US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials met in Islamabad for peace talks, signaling diplomatic efforts to end hostilities. The talks ended without agreement, causing market uncertainty and limited price movement.
US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials hold peace talks in Islamabad
On April 11-12, 2026, US Vice President JD Vance and Iranian officials met in Islamabad for peace talks, signaling diplomatic efforts to end hostilities. The talks ended without agreement, causing market uncertainty and limited price movement.
US and Iran announce ceasefire amid ongoing conflict
On April 8, 2026, a ceasefire was announced between the US and Iran, marking a pause in hostilities and raising market optimism for a permanent peace deal. However, the ceasefire was temporary and did not constitute a permanent agreement, limiting price increases.
US and Iran agree to two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan
December 31 surges to 69%15%
On April 8, 2026, the US and Iran announced a two-week ceasefire, marking a pause in hostilities and raising market optimism for a permanent peace deal. This ceasefire was a critical step in halting immediate conflict and initiating diplomatic talks.
Pakistan brokers twoβweek USβIran ceaseβfire
December 31 surges to 70%15%
A Pakistaniβmediated twoβweek ceaseβfire was announced, temporarily halting hostilities. Although a shortβterm pause, the news lifted market sentiment and the βDecemberβ―31β price rose sharply from around 55β―% to the lowβ70β―% range within a few days.
US and Iran agree to two-week ceasefire mediated by Pakistan
May 31 plunges to 26%18%
On April 8, 2026, the US and Iran agreed to a conditional two-week ceasefire brokered by Pakistan, temporarily halting hostilities and raising market optimism for a permanent peace deal. However, the ceasefire was explicitly temporary and did not qualify as a permanent peace agreement, limiting price increases.
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