Incumbent Rep. Salud Carbajal's dominant fundraising—$3.3 million cash on hand as of late March—and consistent 60%+ general election margins in this D+13 district underpin trader consensus implying 93% odds for a Democratic Party hold in CA-24. Recent mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 has maintained the seat's Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, with 2024 presidential results showing Kamala Harris at 60.9%. The June 2 top-two primary, with ballots mailing May 4, likely advances Carbajal alongside Republican Bob Smith, given challengers' minimal resources. A Republican upset would require a national midterm wave, scandal hitting Carbajal, or unusually low Democratic turnout in the Central Coast battleground.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiCA-24 House Election Winner
CA-24 House Election Winner
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
7%
BARU
BARU
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$3,462 Vol.
93%
Republican Party
$4,135 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Salud Carbajal's dominant fundraising—$3.3 million cash on hand as of late March—and consistent 60%+ general election margins in this D+13 district underpin trader consensus implying 93% odds for a Democratic Party hold in CA-24. Recent mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 has maintained the seat's Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, with 2024 presidential results showing Kamala Harris at 60.9%. The June 2 top-two primary, with ballots mailing May 4, likely advances Carbajal alongside Republican Bob Smith, given challengers' minimal resources. A Republican upset would require a national midterm wave, scandal hitting Carbajal, or unusually low Democratic turnout in the Central Coast battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Pasar Dibuka: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Volume
$7,597Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Rep. Salud Carbajal's dominant fundraising—$3.3 million cash on hand as of late March—and consistent 60%+ general election margins in this D+13 district underpin trader consensus implying 93% odds for a Democratic Party hold in CA-24. Recent mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 has maintained the seat's Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, with 2024 presidential results showing Kamala Harris at 60.9%. The June 2 top-two primary, with ballots mailing May 4, likely advances Carbajal alongside Republican Bob Smith, given challengers' minimal resources. A Republican upset would require a national midterm wave, scandal hitting Carbajal, or unusually low Democratic turnout in the Central Coast battleground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-24 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volume
$7,597Tanggal Berakhir
Nov 3, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Rep. Salud Carbajal's dominant fundraising—$3.3 million cash on hand as of late March—and consistent 60%+ general election margins in this D+13 district underpin trader consensus implying 93% odds for a Democratic Party hold in CA-24. Recent mid-decade redistricting via Proposition 50 has maintained the seat's Solid Democratic rating from Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, and Inside Elections, with 2024 presidential results showing Kamala Harris at 60.9%. The June 2 top-two primary, with ballots mailing May 4, likely advances Carbajal alongside Republican Bob Smith, given challengers' minimal resources. A Republican upset would require a national midterm wave, scandal hitting Carbajal, or unusually low Democratic turnout in the Central Coast battleground.
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