The stabilization of U.S. sovereign ratings after Moody’s May 2025 downgrade to Aa1—with S&P and Fitch already at AA+ and all three agencies now carrying stable outlooks—drives the 78% market-implied probability against another cut before 2027. Persistent fiscal deficits, including the Congressional Budget Office’s $1.9 trillion fiscal 2026 shortfall projection and debt-to-GDP approaching 120% by 2036, remain embedded in current ratings without triggering further action amid the lack of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025. Traders view these factors as already reflected in sub-AAA levels, with no immediate catalysts such as debt-ceiling standoffs or sharp inflation surprises expected to alter agency stances through the period.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiAnother US debt downgrade before 2027?
Another US debt downgrade before 2027?
$10,721 Vol.
$10,721 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$10,721 Vol.
$10,721 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The stabilization of U.S. sovereign ratings after Moody’s May 2025 downgrade to Aa1—with S&P and Fitch already at AA+ and all three agencies now carrying stable outlooks—drives the 78% market-implied probability against another cut before 2027. Persistent fiscal deficits, including the Congressional Budget Office’s $1.9 trillion fiscal 2026 shortfall projection and debt-to-GDP approaching 120% by 2036, remain embedded in current ratings without triggering further action amid the lack of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025. Traders view these factors as already reflected in sub-AAA levels, with no immediate catalysts such as debt-ceiling standoffs or sharp inflation surprises expected to alter agency stances through the period.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Pasar Dibuka: Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ET
Volume
$10,721Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.The stabilization of U.S. sovereign ratings after Moody’s May 2025 downgrade to Aa1—with S&P and Fitch already at AA+ and all three agencies now carrying stable outlooks—drives the 78% market-implied probability against another cut before 2027. Persistent fiscal deficits, including the Congressional Budget Office’s $1.9 trillion fiscal 2026 shortfall projection and debt-to-GDP approaching 120% by 2036, remain embedded in current ratings without triggering further action amid the lack of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025. Traders view these factors as already reflected in sub-AAA levels, with no immediate catalysts such as debt-ceiling standoffs or sharp inflation surprises expected to alter agency stances through the period.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States' long-term sovereign credit letter rating is downgraded by any of the three major credit rating agencies (S&P, Moody's, Fitch) at any point by December 31, 2026 11:59pm ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
The resolution source for this market will be official information from Standard & Poor's, Moody's, or Fitch, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$10,721Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Nov 5, 2025, 2:56 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The stabilization of U.S. sovereign ratings after Moody’s May 2025 downgrade to Aa1—with S&P and Fitch already at AA+ and all three agencies now carrying stable outlooks—drives the 78% market-implied probability against another cut before 2027. Persistent fiscal deficits, including the Congressional Budget Office’s $1.9 trillion fiscal 2026 shortfall projection and debt-to-GDP approaching 120% by 2036, remain embedded in current ratings without triggering further action amid the lack of acute political shocks or abrupt policy shifts since mid-2025. Traders view these factors as already reflected in sub-AAA levels, with no immediate catalysts such as debt-ceiling standoffs or sharp inflation surprises expected to alter agency stances through the period.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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