NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroids or comets on collision trajectories with Earth through 2026 or beyond, consistent with continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring that shows only safe flybys of small objects this year. Meteoroids energetic enough to produce a 5-kiloton airburst remain statistically rare, occurring roughly once per decade on average, with no confirmed detections or orbital updates elevating risk in the current observing season. Ongoing surveys by Pan-STARRS, Catalina, and radar assets continue to catalog new near-Earth objects, yet none meet the size or trajectory thresholds for atmospheric impact this year. Traders therefore price the “no” outcome heavily, reflecting both the absence of near-term threats and the limited remaining window before December 31.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui5kt meteor strike in 2026?
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
27% peluang
$311,640 Vol.
$311,640 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
27% peluang
$311,640 Vol.
$311,640 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroids or comets on collision trajectories with Earth through 2026 or beyond, consistent with continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring that shows only safe flybys of small objects this year. Meteoroids energetic enough to produce a 5-kiloton airburst remain statistically rare, occurring roughly once per decade on average, with no confirmed detections or orbital updates elevating risk in the current observing season. Ongoing surveys by Pan-STARRS, Catalina, and radar assets continue to catalog new near-Earth objects, yet none meet the size or trajectory thresholds for atmospheric impact this year. Traders therefore price the “no” outcome heavily, reflecting both the absence of near-term threats and the limited remaining window before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ET
Volume
$311,640Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroids or comets on collision trajectories with Earth through 2026 or beyond, consistent with continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring that shows only safe flybys of small objects this year. Meteoroids energetic enough to produce a 5-kiloton airburst remain statistically rare, occurring roughly once per decade on average, with no confirmed detections or orbital updates elevating risk in the current observing season. Ongoing surveys by Pan-STARRS, Catalina, and radar assets continue to catalog new near-Earth objects, yet none meet the size or trajectory thresholds for atmospheric impact this year. Traders therefore price the “no” outcome heavily, reflecting both the absence of near-term threats and the limited remaining window before December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a natural meteoroid (bolide) explodes in Earth's atmosphere with a total impact energy greater than or equal to 5 kilotons of TNT equivalent between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
The object must be classified as a natural meteoroid; events involving artificial objects or reentry vehicles do not qualify.
The primary resolution source will be the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository: https://cneos.jpl.nasa.gov/fireballs/. The relevant field for determining impact energy is the “Impact Energy (kt)” column. If this dataset has not been updated to include all relevant dates by February 28, 2027, or if the NASA JPL Fireball and Bolide Data repository becomes permanently unavailable, this market may resolve based on a consensus of credible sources including the European Space Agency (ESA), the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN), the U.S. Department of Defense, or credible reporting of a scientific consensus, such as a NASA press release.
Volume
$311,640Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 12:04 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...NASA’s Center for Near-Earth Object Studies reports no known asteroids or comets on collision trajectories with Earth through 2026 or beyond, consistent with continuous Sentry and Scout monitoring that shows only safe flybys of small objects this year. Meteoroids energetic enough to produce a 5-kiloton airburst remain statistically rare, occurring roughly once per decade on average, with no confirmed detections or orbital updates elevating risk in the current observing season. Ongoing surveys by Pan-STARRS, Catalina, and radar assets continue to catalog new near-Earth objects, yet none meet the size or trajectory thresholds for atmospheric impact this year. Traders therefore price the “no” outcome heavily, reflecting both the absence of near-term threats and the limited remaining window before December 31.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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