Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, defined by National Hurricane Center data as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US, USGS-recorded M8.5+ earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption per global volcanology reports, or NASA-confirmed 10kt+ meteor strike. Through mid-April, no qualifying events have occurred despite recent Midwest tornado outbreaks and spring flooding, which fell below these extreme thresholds. Colorado State University and other models forecast a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season under transitioning weak La Niña to neutral ENSO conditions, reducing major hurricane risk. USGS seismic monitoring shows no precursors for megaquakes, while no volcanoes approach VEI6 alert levels. Upcoming National Hurricane Center seasonal updates in May could shift odds amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
$207,043 Vol.
$207,043 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
$207,043 Vol.
$207,043 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, defined by National Hurricane Center data as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US, USGS-recorded M8.5+ earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption per global volcanology reports, or NASA-confirmed 10kt+ meteor strike. Through mid-April, no qualifying events have occurred despite recent Midwest tornado outbreaks and spring flooding, which fell below these extreme thresholds. Colorado State University and other models forecast a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season under transitioning weak La Niña to neutral ENSO conditions, reducing major hurricane risk. USGS seismic monitoring shows no precursors for megaquakes, while no volcanoes approach VEI6 alert levels. Upcoming National Hurricane Center seasonal updates in May could shift odds amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$207,043Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, defined by National Hurricane Center data as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US, USGS-recorded M8.5+ earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption per global volcanology reports, or NASA-confirmed 10kt+ meteor strike. Through mid-April, no qualifying events have occurred despite recent Midwest tornado outbreaks and spring flooding, which fell below these extreme thresholds. Colorado State University and other models forecast a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season under transitioning weak La Niña to neutral ENSO conditions, reducing major hurricane risk. USGS seismic monitoring shows no precursors for megaquakes, while no volcanoes approach VEI6 alert levels. Upcoming National Hurricane Center seasonal updates in May could shift odds amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$207,043Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus favors "No" at 72.5% implied probability for a natural disaster in 2026, defined by National Hurricane Center data as a Category 5 hurricane landfall in the US, USGS-recorded M8.5+ earthquake, VEI ≥6 volcanic eruption per global volcanology reports, or NASA-confirmed 10kt+ meteor strike. Through mid-April, no qualifying events have occurred despite recent Midwest tornado outbreaks and spring flooding, which fell below these extreme thresholds. Colorado State University and other models forecast a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season under transitioning weak La Niña to neutral ENSO conditions, reducing major hurricane risk. USGS seismic monitoring shows no precursors for megaquakes, while no volcanoes approach VEI6 alert levels. Upcoming National Hurricane Center seasonal updates in May could shift odds amid inherent forecast uncertainty.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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