Recent activity through mid-August 2026, including a 7.4-magnitude quake in Colombia, widespread wildfires in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, and multiple floods and tornadoes, remains well below the market's extreme thresholds such as an 8.5+ earthquake, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, or major meteor strike. USGS and NOAA monitoring shows no seismic or atmospheric signals favoring such outliers in the remaining months, consistent with historical patterns for these rare events. Strengthening El Niño conditions may elevate late-year tropical cyclone or heat risks, yet current model consensus and the absence of qualifying developments so far underpin the 77.5% market-implied probability for No.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiNatural Disaster in 2026?
Natural Disaster in 2026?
23% peluang
$240,989 Vol.
$240,989 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
23% peluang
$240,989 Vol.
$240,989 Vol.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Recent activity through mid-August 2026, including a 7.4-magnitude quake in Colombia, widespread wildfires in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, and multiple floods and tornadoes, remains well below the market's extreme thresholds such as an 8.5+ earthquake, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, or major meteor strike. USGS and NOAA monitoring shows no seismic or atmospheric signals favoring such outliers in the remaining months, consistent with historical patterns for these rare events. Strengthening El Niño conditions may elevate late-year tropical cyclone or heat risks, yet current model consensus and the absence of qualifying developments so far underpin the 77.5% market-implied probability for No.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Pasar Dibuka: Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ET
Volume
$240,989Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Recent activity through mid-August 2026, including a 7.4-magnitude quake in Colombia, widespread wildfires in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, and multiple floods and tornadoes, remains well below the market's extreme thresholds such as an 8.5+ earthquake, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, or major meteor strike. USGS and NOAA monitoring shows no seismic or atmospheric signals favoring such outliers in the remaining months, consistent with historical patterns for these rare events. Strengthening El Niño conditions may elevate late-year tropical cyclone or heat risks, yet current model consensus and the absence of qualifying developments so far underpin the 77.5% market-implied probability for No.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met during 2026 ET:
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
- A Category 5 hurricane makes landfall in the US
- A major meteor strikes (10kt+)
- A major volcano erupts (VEI ≥6)
- An 8.5+ earthquake occurs
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If required information from the specified sources remains outstanding, the market may stay open until February 28, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Natural+Disaster+in+2026.pdf
Volume
$240,989Tanggal Berakhir
Dec 31, 2026Pasar Dibuka
Dec 31, 2025, 2:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent activity through mid-August 2026, including a 7.4-magnitude quake in Colombia, widespread wildfires in the U.S. Pacific Northwest, and multiple floods and tornadoes, remains well below the market's extreme thresholds such as an 8.5+ earthquake, VEI 6+ volcanic eruption, Category 5 U.S. hurricane landfall, or major meteor strike. USGS and NOAA monitoring shows no seismic or atmospheric signals favoring such outliers in the remaining months, consistent with historical patterns for these rare events. Strengthening El Niño conditions may elevate late-year tropical cyclone or heat risks, yet current model consensus and the absence of qualifying developments so far underpin the 77.5% market-implied probability for No.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Hati-hati dengan link eksternal.
Pertanyaan yang Sering Diajukan