With over 1,120 confirmed U.S. tornadoes through mid-August 2026 per NOAA and NCEI data—already exceeding typical year-to-date benchmarks—traders heavily favor the 1250+ outcome at 85.5% implied probability. Record activity in Illinois, Indiana, and other Midwest states, driven by repeated severe weather outbreaks with strong low-level moisture, high convective available potential energy, and favorable wind shear, has accelerated the count. A strengthening El Niño may temper Southeast activity relative to La Niña patterns, yet overall environmental conditions have sustained elevated totals compared to the long-term average of roughly 1,000–1,200 annually. Remaining months offer limited upside potential but little downside risk given current momentum.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiHow many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in 2026?
1250+ 86%
1200–1249 8.4%
1150–1199 7.5%
1100–1149 3.8%
$81,752 Vol.
$81,752 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
3%
950–999
<1%
1000–1049
<1%
1050–1099
<1%
1100–1149
4%
1150–1199
7%
1200–1249
8%
1250+
86%
1250+ 86%
1200–1249 8.4%
1150–1199 7.5%
1100–1149 3.8%
$81,752 Vol.
$81,752 Vol.
Jan 10, 2027
<950
$23,720 Vol.
3%
950–999
$3,618 Vol.
<1%
1000–1049
$3,451 Vol.
<1%
1050–1099
$9,172 Vol.
<1%
1100–1149
$3,248 Vol.
4%
1150–1199
$4,082 Vol.
7%
1200–1249
$15,917 Vol.
8%
1250+
$18,543 Vol.
86%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.With over 1,120 confirmed U.S. tornadoes through mid-August 2026 per NOAA and NCEI data—already exceeding typical year-to-date benchmarks—traders heavily favor the 1250+ outcome at 85.5% implied probability. Record activity in Illinois, Indiana, and other Midwest states, driven by repeated severe weather outbreaks with strong low-level moisture, high convective available potential energy, and favorable wind shear, has accelerated the count. A strengthening El Niño may temper Southeast activity relative to La Niña patterns, yet overall environmental conditions have sustained elevated totals compared to the long-term average of roughly 1,000–1,200 annually. Remaining months offer limited upside potential but little downside risk given current momentum.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Pasar Dibuka: Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ET
Volume
$81,752Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 10, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.With over 1,120 confirmed U.S. tornadoes through mid-August 2026 per NOAA and NCEI data—already exceeding typical year-to-date benchmarks—traders heavily favor the 1250+ outcome at 85.5% implied probability. Record activity in Illinois, Indiana, and other Midwest states, driven by repeated severe weather outbreaks with strong low-level moisture, high convective available potential energy, and favorable wind shear, has accelerated the count. A strengthening El Niño may temper Southeast activity relative to La Niña patterns, yet overall environmental conditions have sustained elevated totals compared to the long-term average of roughly 1,000–1,200 annually. Remaining months offer limited upside potential but little downside risk given current momentum.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States in 2026, based on the monthly counts published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for all months of 2026 will count.
As of market creation, the December report is not yet scheduled, however the release schedule can be found here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases. The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Volume
$81,752Tanggal Berakhir
Jan 10, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Feb 24, 2026, 6:45 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...With over 1,120 confirmed U.S. tornadoes through mid-August 2026 per NOAA and NCEI data—already exceeding typical year-to-date benchmarks—traders heavily favor the 1250+ outcome at 85.5% implied probability. Record activity in Illinois, Indiana, and other Midwest states, driven by repeated severe weather outbreaks with strong low-level moisture, high convective available potential energy, and favorable wind shear, has accelerated the count. A strengthening El Niño may temper Southeast activity relative to La Niña patterns, yet overall environmental conditions have sustained elevated totals compared to the long-term average of roughly 1,000–1,200 annually. Remaining months offer limited upside potential but little downside risk given current momentum.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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