Strengthened post-COVID surveillance networks, rapid response protocols, and the 2025 WHO Pandemic Agreement have improved detection and containment of emerging threats, supporting the 78.5% market-implied odds against a new pandemic before 2028. As of October 2026, the expanding Bundibugyo Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo—now exceeding 8,000 confirmed cases—remains regionally focused with no sustained international transmission, while seasonal arboviruses like West Nile and chikungunya, plus measles resurgences tied to vaccination gaps, have not met pandemic criteria under WHO assessments. COVID-19 itself carries only moderate ongoing risk. Trader sentiment reflects confidence that known pathogens and enhanced monitoring will prevent novel high-transmissibility events from escalating globally in the near term, though model uncertainties around zoonotic spillover persist.