**Only 12 billion-dollar disasters occurred through June 2026, well below the pace required to challenge the 28-event record set in 2023.** Severe storms drove eight of those events, consistent with the elevated frequency seen in recent years but not accelerating toward record totals. NOAA and Climate Central data show 2025 ended with 23 events and 2024 with 27, while 2026’s first-half count ranks only fifth-highest for January–June. Tropical cyclone activity, which peaks in September–October, remains the main variable, yet current steering patterns, sea-surface temperatures, and model consensus do not indicate an unusually active remainder of the season capable of adding the 17+ additional events needed. Trader consensus at 80% for “No” reflects these measured counts, historical climatology, and the low probability of surpassing prior peaks before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · DiperbaruiWill the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
Will the US break its record for billion-dollar weather and climate disasters in 2026?
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Jun 30, 2027
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Jun 30, 2027
This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events. The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023. A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No".
The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.
Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release.
If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".**Only 12 billion-dollar disasters occurred through June 2026, well below the pace required to challenge the 28-event record set in 2023.** Severe storms drove eight of those events, consistent with the elevated frequency seen in recent years but not accelerating toward record totals. NOAA and Climate Central data show 2025 ended with 23 events and 2024 with 27, while 2026’s first-half count ranks only fifth-highest for January–June. Tropical cyclone activity, which peaks in September–October, remains the main variable, yet current steering patterns, sea-surface temperatures, and model consensus do not indicate an unusually active remainder of the season capable of adding the 17+ additional events needed. Trader consensus at 80% for “No” reflects these measured counts, historical climatology, and the low probability of surpassing prior peaks before year-end.
This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events. The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023. A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No".
The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.
Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release.
If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".
The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.
Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release.
If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".
Pasar Dibuka: Aug 19, 2026, 12:44 PM ET
Volume
$43Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Aug 19, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events. The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023. A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No".
The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.
Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release.
If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".**Only 12 billion-dollar disasters occurred through June 2026, well below the pace required to challenge the 28-event record set in 2023.** Severe storms drove eight of those events, consistent with the elevated frequency seen in recent years but not accelerating toward record totals. NOAA and Climate Central data show 2025 ended with 23 events and 2024 with 27, while 2026’s first-half count ranks only fifth-highest for January–June. Tropical cyclone activity, which peaks in September–October, remains the main variable, yet current steering patterns, sea-surface temperatures, and model consensus do not indicate an unusually active remainder of the season capable of adding the 17+ additional events needed. Trader consensus at 80% for “No” reflects these measured counts, historical climatology, and the low probability of surpassing prior peaks before year-end.
This market resolves to "Yes" if Climate Central's U.S. Billion-Dollar Weather and Climate Disasters report for calendar year 2026 counts more than 28 separate billion-dollar weather and climate disaster events. The standing record is 28 events, set in 2023. A count of 28 or fewer resolves this market to "No".
The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.
Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release.
If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".
The controlling figure is the number of billion-dollar events attributed to calendar year 2026 in Climate Central's report (https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-services/billion-dollar-disasters), using Climate Central's standard cost-estimation and inflation-adjustment methodology; Climate Central now stewards this NOAA/NCEI dataset under the same methodology and original lead scientist. Whether an event qualifies, and how events are delineated and counted, follow Climate Central's published enumeration. Preliminary or year-to-date counts released during 2026 do not determine resolution; only the count attributed to the full 2026 calendar year controls.
Climate Central typically publishes its annual tally in January of the following year. The controlling count is the figure Climate Central attributes to calendar year 2026 as reflected in its most recent publication as of June 30, 2027, accounting for any revisions Climate Central makes after its initial release.
If Climate Central has not published any count covering the full 2026 calendar year by June 30, 2027, resolution will be based on the most recent publicly available full-year 2026 count produced under the same NOAA/NCEI methodology by a credible successor steward. If no such count exists, this market resolves to "No".
Volume
$43Tanggal Berakhir
Jul 1, 2027Pasar Dibuka
Aug 19, 2026, 12:44 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Only 12 billion-dollar disasters occurred through June 2026, well below the pace required to challenge the 28-event record set in 2023.** Severe storms drove eight of those events, consistent with the elevated frequency seen in recent years but not accelerating toward record totals. NOAA and Climate Central data show 2025 ended with 23 events and 2024 with 27, while 2026’s first-half count ranks only fifth-highest for January–June. Tropical cyclone activity, which peaks in September–October, remains the main variable, yet current steering patterns, sea-surface temperatures, and model consensus do not indicate an unusually active remainder of the season capable of adding the 17+ additional events needed. Trader consensus at 80% for “No” reflects these measured counts, historical climatology, and the low probability of surpassing prior peaks before year-end.
Ringkasan eksperimental yang dihasilkan AI dengan referensi data Polymarket. Ini bukan saran trading dan tidak berperan dalam bagaimana pasar ini diselesaikan. · Diperbarui
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