Recent large-scale Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv on April 16 amid interceptor shortages, highlight persistent escalation following mutual accusations of violating the Orthodox Easter truce earlier this month. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated on April 19 that Moscow sees no urgency to resume peace talks, viewing them as secondary to battlefield gains, while Ukraine proposes freezing front lines in Donbas for a ceasefire—terms Russia rejects, demanding territorial withdrawals. Divergent negotiating positions, stalled since 2025 Istanbul rounds that yielded only prisoner swaps, combined with slow Russian advances and Ukrainian resistance, drive trader consensus to a 70.5% implied probability of no ceasefire by December 31, 2026, amid entrenched attrition and absent diplomatic breakthroughs.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाहाँ
$14,068,338 वॉल्यूम
$14,068,338 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
4% कमाएँ
हाँ
$14,068,338 वॉल्यूम
$14,068,338 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
4% कमाएँ
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Recent large-scale Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv on April 16 amid interceptor shortages, highlight persistent escalation following mutual accusations of violating the Orthodox Easter truce earlier this month. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated on April 19 that Moscow sees no urgency to resume peace talks, viewing them as secondary to battlefield gains, while Ukraine proposes freezing front lines in Donbas for a ceasefire—terms Russia rejects, demanding territorial withdrawals. Divergent negotiating positions, stalled since 2025 Istanbul rounds that yielded only prisoner swaps, combined with slow Russian advances and Ukrainian resistance, drive trader consensus to a 70.5% implied probability of no ceasefire by December 31, 2026, amid entrenched attrition and absent diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$14,068,338समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.Recent large-scale Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv on April 16 amid interceptor shortages, highlight persistent escalation following mutual accusations of violating the Orthodox Easter truce earlier this month. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated on April 19 that Moscow sees no urgency to resume peace talks, viewing them as secondary to battlefield gains, while Ukraine proposes freezing front lines in Donbas for a ceasefire—terms Russia rejects, demanding territorial withdrawals. Divergent negotiating positions, stalled since 2025 Istanbul rounds that yielded only prisoner swaps, combined with slow Russian advances and Ukrainian resistance, drive trader consensus to a 70.5% implied probability of no ceasefire by December 31, 2026, amid entrenched attrition and absent diplomatic breakthroughs.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is an official ceasefire agreement, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed halt in military engagement, between Russia and Ukraine by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
If the agreement is officially reached before the resolution date, this market will resolve to "Yes," regardless of whether the ceasefire officially starts afterward.
Only ceasefires that constitute a general pause in the conflict will qualify. Ceasefires that only apply to energy infrastructure, the Black Sea, or other similar agreements will not qualify.
Any form of informal agreement will not be considered an official ceasefire. Humanitarian pauses will not count toward the resolution of this market.
This market's resolution will be based on official announcements from both Russia and Ukraine; however, a wide consensus of credible media reporting stating an official ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine has been reached will suffice.
वॉल्यूम
$14,068,338समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 24, 2025, 7:37 PM ETरिज़ॉल्वर
0x157Ce2d67...We anticipate rolling out a new rewards and oracle-resolution system later this year that will generate returns on your positions, at which point there will be a simple 1-click migration.
Recent large-scale Russian missile and drone strikes on Ukrainian cities, including Kyiv on April 16 amid interceptor shortages, highlight persistent escalation following mutual accusations of violating the Orthodox Easter truce earlier this month. Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov stated on April 19 that Moscow sees no urgency to resume peace talks, viewing them as secondary to battlefield gains, while Ukraine proposes freezing front lines in Donbas for a ceasefire—terms Russia rejects, demanding territorial withdrawals. Divergent negotiating positions, stalled since 2025 Istanbul rounds that yielded only prisoner swaps, combined with slow Russian advances and Ukrainian resistance, drive trader consensus to a 70.5% implied probability of no ceasefire by December 31, 2026, amid entrenched attrition and absent diplomatic breakthroughs.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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