Trader consensus strongly favors Kevin Warsh as Jerome Powell's successor, with 80.5% implied probability across outcomes, driven by President Trump's January nomination and the Senate Banking Committee's April 21 confirmation hearing announcement last week, boosting GOP support amid prior delays from probes and Sen. Tillis opposition. Warsh's hawkish reputation—echoing his 2008 calls for hikes amid oil surges—aligns with recent sticky inflation from energy shocks tied to Iran tensions, resilient 4.3% unemployment, and the Fed's steady 3.5%-3.75% funds rate target after March's hold. Markets see low odds of deep cuts to ≤2.5% under Warsh, pricing sustained higher rates before April 28-29 FOMC, while faded contenders like Rick Rieder and Kevin Hassett trail far behind.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाप्रत्येक फेड चेयर के तहत अनुमानित फेड दर
प्रत्येक फेड चेयर के तहत अनुमानित फेड दर
केविन वार्श और दर > 2.5% 71%
केविन वॉर्श और दर ≤ 2.5% 10%
रिक रीएडर और दर > 2.5% 3.2%
अन्य 2.9%
$107,941 वॉल्यूम
$107,941 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
केविन वार्श और दर > 2.5%
71%
केविन वॉर्श और दर ≤ 2.5%
10%
रिक रीएडर और दर > 2.5%
7%
अन्य
3%
रिक रीदर और दर ≤ 2.5%
1%
केविन हैसेट और दर ≤ 2.5%
1%
क्रिस्टोफ़र वालर और दर ≤ 2.5%
1%
केविन हैसेट और दर > 2.5%
<1%
क्रिस्टोफ़र वालर और दर > 2.5%
<1%
केविन वार्श और दर > 2.5% 71%
केविन वॉर्श और दर ≤ 2.5% 10%
रिक रीएडर और दर > 2.5% 3.2%
अन्य 2.9%
$107,941 वॉल्यूम
$107,941 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
केविन वार्श और दर > 2.5%
$6,664 वॉल्यूम
71%
केविन वॉर्श और दर ≤ 2.5%
$5,517 वॉल्यूम
10%
रिक रीएडर और दर > 2.5%
$22,894 वॉल्यूम
7%
अन्य
$15,254 वॉल्यूम
3%
रिक रीदर और दर ≤ 2.5%
$24,771 वॉल्यूम
1%
केविन हैसेट और दर ≤ 2.5%
$11,767 वॉल्यूम
1%
क्रिस्टोफ़र वालर और दर ≤ 2.5%
$6,159 वॉल्यूम
1%
केविन हैसेट और दर > 2.5%
$7,261 वॉल्यूम
<1%
क्रिस्टोफ़र वालर और दर > 2.5%
$7,652 वॉल्यूम
<1%
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.Trader consensus strongly favors Kevin Warsh as Jerome Powell's successor, with 80.5% implied probability across outcomes, driven by President Trump's January nomination and the Senate Banking Committee's April 21 confirmation hearing announcement last week, boosting GOP support amid prior delays from probes and Sen. Tillis opposition. Warsh's hawkish reputation—echoing his 2008 calls for hikes amid oil surges—aligns with recent sticky inflation from energy shocks tied to Iran tensions, resilient 4.3% unemployment, and the Fed's steady 3.5%-3.75% funds rate target after March's hold. Markets see low odds of deep cuts to ≤2.5% under Warsh, pricing sustained higher rates before April 28-29 FOMC, while faded contenders like Rick Rieder and Kevin Hassett trail far behind.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ET
वॉल्यूम
$107,941समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.Trader consensus strongly favors Kevin Warsh as Jerome Powell's successor, with 80.5% implied probability across outcomes, driven by President Trump's January nomination and the Senate Banking Committee's April 21 confirmation hearing announcement last week, boosting GOP support amid prior delays from probes and Sen. Tillis opposition. Warsh's hawkish reputation—echoing his 2008 calls for hikes amid oil surges—aligns with recent sticky inflation from energy shocks tied to Iran tensions, resilient 4.3% unemployment, and the Fed's steady 3.5%-3.75% funds rate target after March's hold. Markets see low odds of deep cuts to ≤2.5% under Warsh, pricing sustained higher rates before April 28-29 FOMC, while faded contenders like Rick Rieder and Kevin Hassett trail far behind.
This market will resolve according to the combined outcome of who will be confirmed as the next Fed Chair and whether the Fed’s lower bound will reach 2.5% or lower (https://polymarket.com/event/what-will-fed-rate-hit-before-2027) at any point by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
This market will resolve to “Other” if an outcome not listed occurs within the specified timeframe.
This market may resolve as soon as the respective conditions are met.
The rules and resolution criteria are as follows:
1. Who be confirmed as the next Fed Chair?
This market will resolve according to the next individual confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Confirmation is defined as approval by the U.S. Senate, whether by a majority vote or by unanimous consent.
Recess appointments without Senate confirmation will not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is confirmed by the U.S. Senate to be Chair of the Federal Reserve.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
2. Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 2.5% or lower in 2026?
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve according to whether the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET.
Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.
The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Note: If the lower bound of the target federal funds rate reaches 2.5% before a new Fed Chair is nominated, it will qualify.
वॉल्यूम
$107,941समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 20, 2026, 8:27 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus strongly favors Kevin Warsh as Jerome Powell's successor, with 80.5% implied probability across outcomes, driven by President Trump's January nomination and the Senate Banking Committee's April 21 confirmation hearing announcement last week, boosting GOP support amid prior delays from probes and Sen. Tillis opposition. Warsh's hawkish reputation—echoing his 2008 calls for hikes amid oil surges—aligns with recent sticky inflation from energy shocks tied to Iran tensions, resilient 4.3% unemployment, and the Fed's steady 3.5%-3.75% funds rate target after March's hold. Markets see low odds of deep cuts to ≤2.5% under Warsh, pricing sustained higher rates before April 28-29 FOMC, while faded contenders like Rick Rieder and Kevin Hassett trail far behind.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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