Trader consensus on the "Yes" outcome for no major black-swan events through December 31, 2026 currently sits near 62 percent, reflecting sustained diplomatic and institutional continuity since the market opened. Limited U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets following Hormuz disruptions have remained below thresholds for broader conflict or regime change, while stalled Gaza negotiations and a temporary Ukraine Victory Day truce have preserved the existing balance. President Trump has pursued routine executive actions without invoking emergency powers or altering Senate dynamics ahead of November midterms. Steady leadership in Beijing and the absence of monetary or geological shocks have further supported this assessment, though any escalation in congressional contests or unforeseen diplomatic breakdowns could still shift probabilities before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयाकभी कुछ नहीं होता: 2026
कभी कुछ नहीं होता: 2026
हाँ
$567,896 वॉल्यूम
$567,896 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
हाँ
$567,896 वॉल्यूम
$567,896 वॉल्यूम
31 दिस, 2026
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on the "Yes" outcome for no major black-swan events through December 31, 2026 currently sits near 62 percent, reflecting sustained diplomatic and institutional continuity since the market opened. Limited U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets following Hormuz disruptions have remained below thresholds for broader conflict or regime change, while stalled Gaza negotiations and a temporary Ukraine Victory Day truce have preserved the existing balance. President Trump has pursued routine executive actions without invoking emergency powers or altering Senate dynamics ahead of November midterms. Steady leadership in Beijing and the absence of monetary or geological shocks have further supported this assessment, though any escalation in congressional contests or unforeseen diplomatic breakdowns could still shift probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
बाज़ार खुला: Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$567,896समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on the "Yes" outcome for no major black-swan events through December 31, 2026 currently sits near 62 percent, reflecting sustained diplomatic and institutional continuity since the market opened. Limited U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets following Hormuz disruptions have remained below thresholds for broader conflict or regime change, while stalled Gaza negotiations and a temporary Ukraine Victory Day truce have preserved the existing balance. President Trump has pursued routine executive actions without invoking emergency powers or altering Senate dynamics ahead of November midterms. Steady leadership in Beijing and the absence of monetary or geological shocks have further supported this assessment, though any escalation in congressional contests or unforeseen diplomatic breakdowns could still shift probabilities before year-end.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
वॉल्यूम
$567,896समाप्ति तिथि
31 दिस, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on the "Yes" outcome for no major black-swan events through December 31, 2026 currently sits near 62 percent, reflecting sustained diplomatic and institutional continuity since the market opened. Limited U.S. airstrikes on Iranian targets following Hormuz disruptions have remained below thresholds for broader conflict or regime change, while stalled Gaza negotiations and a temporary Ukraine Victory Day truce have preserved the existing balance. President Trump has pursued routine executive actions without invoking emergency powers or altering Senate dynamics ahead of November midterms. Steady leadership in Beijing and the absence of monetary or geological shocks have further supported this assessment, though any escalation in congressional contests or unforeseen diplomatic breakdowns could still shift probabilities before year-end.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
अक्सर पूछे जाने वाले प्रश्न