The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since April 8, 2026 and extended by President Trump to allow further proposals, faces ongoing strain from unresolved disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and continued Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran has used the pause to reconstitute missile and drone forces, regaining access to many underground facilities and retaining most of its prewar stockpiles, while both sides have reported violations including naval actions and limited strikes. Pakistan-mediated talks in Islamabad have produced no final agreement, with Iranian conditions for a lasting deal remaining unmet amid US naval pressure and Lebanese ceasefire extensions. Traders are tracking whether diplomatic momentum or new military incidents will determine if the truce holds through key upcoming deadlines.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गयानया
May 20
97%
May 21
88%
May 22
81%
May 24
56%
May 27
64%
May 31
52%
June 7
50%
June 15
50%
June 30
50%
July 31
50%
December 31
27%
$1,084 वॉल्यूम
May 20
$218 वॉल्यूम
97%
May 21
$250 वॉल्यूम
88%
May 22
$0 वॉल्यूम
81%
May 24
$223 वॉल्यूम
56%
May 27
$510 वॉल्यूम
64%
May 31
$100 वॉल्यूम
52%
June 7
$100 वॉल्यूम
50%
June 15
$0 वॉल्यूम
50%
June 30
$194 वॉल्यूम
50%
July 31
$0 वॉल्यूम
50%
December 31
$0 वॉल्यूम
27%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since April 8, 2026 and extended by President Trump to allow further proposals, faces ongoing strain from unresolved disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and continued Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran has used the pause to reconstitute missile and drone forces, regaining access to many underground facilities and retaining most of its prewar stockpiles, while both sides have reported violations including naval actions and limited strikes. Pakistan-mediated talks in Islamabad have produced no final agreement, with Iranian conditions for a lasting deal remaining unmet amid US naval pressure and Lebanese ceasefire extensions. Traders are tracking whether diplomatic momentum or new military incidents will determine if the truce holds through key upcoming deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$1,084बाज़ार खुला
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since April 8, 2026 and extended by President Trump to allow further proposals, faces ongoing strain from unresolved disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and continued Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran has used the pause to reconstitute missile and drone forces, regaining access to many underground facilities and retaining most of its prewar stockpiles, while both sides have reported violations including naval actions and limited strikes. Pakistan-mediated talks in Islamabad have produced no final agreement, with Iranian conditions for a lasting deal remaining unmet amid US naval pressure and Lebanese ceasefire extensions. Traders are tracking whether diplomatic momentum or new military incidents will determine if the truce holds through key upcoming deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US-Iranian ceasefire remains in effect through the listed date (ET). Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The US-Iranian ceasefire will be considered to no longer be in effect if the US government officially publicly confirms or if an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting confirms that the U.S. conducted a kinetic military action on Iranian soil before the resolution date.
Confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action must occur within one calendar day following the underlying action (i.e., by 11:59 PM ET on the following calendar day) in order to qualify. Accordingly, this market will remain open for one calendar day following the listed end date to allow for confirmation of a qualifying kinetic military action occurring near the deadline.
A qualifying "kinetic military action" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by US military forces that impact Iranian ground territory.
Kinetic action against Iranian forces which do not occur within Iranian terrestrial territory will not qualify.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by US ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$1,084बाज़ार खुला
May 19, 2026, 11:20 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since April 8, 2026 and extended by President Trump to allow further proposals, faces ongoing strain from unresolved disputes over the Strait of Hormuz and continued Israeli operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran has used the pause to reconstitute missile and drone forces, regaining access to many underground facilities and retaining most of its prewar stockpiles, while both sides have reported violations including naval actions and limited strikes. Pakistan-mediated talks in Islamabad have produced no final agreement, with Iranian conditions for a lasting deal remaining unmet amid US naval pressure and Lebanese ceasefire extensions. Traders are tracking whether diplomatic momentum or new military incidents will determine if the truce holds through key upcoming deadlines.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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बाहरी लिंक से सावधान रहें।
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