The fragile US-Iran ceasefire, in place since April 8, 2026, following Pakistan-mediated talks amid the broader conflict over Iran's nuclear and missile programs, remains the central factor shaping trader views. Intermittent violations, including clashes near the Strait of Hormuz, have kept tensions elevated, with President Trump describing the truce as on "life support" in May after rejecting an Iranian counterproposal. Recent negotiator-level progress toward a 60-day extension, reopening of the Strait, and renewed nuclear discussions has emerged in late May, though Iranian officials state a final agreement is not imminent and US approval is pending. Both sides continue military posturing and diplomatic exchanges, with no firm timeline for comprehensive resolution and risks of escalation tied to Hormuz access or proxy activities.