Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed in March 2026 following his father's assassination amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, has issued only written statements and avoided all public appearances due to reported injuries and security risks during the ongoing conflict. His complete absence from late July funeral ceremonies for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei intensified speculation about his physical condition and location, with Israeli sources cited in Saudi media claiming he is no longer in Iran and possible relocation to Russia. Iranian state media countered with a recent undated video depicting him in apparent good health. Trader focus centers on whether wartime pressures, internal power dynamics within the Assembly of Experts and Revolutionary Guard, or diplomatic maneuvering will prompt an exit before any resolution deadline, against a backdrop of factional disputes and stalled negotiations.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया$102,209 वॉल्यूम
31 अग, 2026
31 अगस्त
1%
$102,209 वॉल्यूम
31 अगस्त
$60,307 वॉल्यूम
1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed in March 2026 following his father's assassination amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, has issued only written statements and avoided all public appearances due to reported injuries and security risks during the ongoing conflict. His complete absence from late July funeral ceremonies for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei intensified speculation about his physical condition and location, with Israeli sources cited in Saudi media claiming he is no longer in Iran and possible relocation to Russia. Iranian state media countered with a recent undated video depicting him in apparent good health. Trader focus centers on whether wartime pressures, internal power dynamics within the Assembly of Experts and Revolutionary Guard, or diplomatic maneuvering will prompt an exit before any resolution deadline, against a backdrop of factional disputes and stalled negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
बाज़ार खुला: Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ET
वॉल्यूम
$102,209समाप्ति तिथि
31 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed in March 2026 following his father's assassination amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, has issued only written statements and avoided all public appearances due to reported injuries and security risks during the ongoing conflict. His complete absence from late July funeral ceremonies for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei intensified speculation about his physical condition and location, with Israeli sources cited in Saudi media claiming he is no longer in Iran and possible relocation to Russia. Iranian state media countered with a recent undated video depicting him in apparent good health. Trader focus centers on whether wartime pressures, internal power dynamics within the Assembly of Experts and Revolutionary Guard, or diplomatic maneuvering will prompt an exit before any resolution deadline, against a backdrop of factional disputes and stalled negotiations.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is confirmed that Mojtaba Khamenei was outside Iran at any point between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Both the presence outside Iran and its confirmation must occur between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. A presence outside Iran occurring prior to market creation will not qualify, regardless of when it is confirmed.
Mojtaba Khamenei need not depart Iran during the market window, nor remain outside Iran at the time of confirmation. If he was already outside Iran at market creation, his confirmed presence outside Iran during the window will qualify; likewise, a confirmed presence during the window will qualify even if he has since returned to Iran.
In cases where Mojtaba Khamenei may have exited Iranian airspace on a plane, he must be confirmed to have exited the plane in a country other than Iran for this market to resolve to "Yes". If Mojtaba Khamenei exits Iranian maritime territory on a boat to international waters, this market may resolve to "Yes".
If no qualifying confirmation occurs by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
वॉल्यूम
$102,209समाप्ति तिथि
31 जुल, 2026बाज़ार खुला
Jul 19, 2026, 10:24 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran's Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, appointed in March 2026 following his father's assassination amid U.S.-Israeli strikes, has issued only written statements and avoided all public appearances due to reported injuries and security risks during the ongoing conflict. His complete absence from late July funeral ceremonies for Ayatollah Ali Khamenei intensified speculation about his physical condition and location, with Israeli sources cited in Saudi media claiming he is no longer in Iran and possible relocation to Russia. Iranian state media countered with a recent undated video depicting him in apparent good health. Trader focus centers on whether wartime pressures, internal power dynamics within the Assembly of Experts and Revolutionary Guard, or diplomatic maneuvering will prompt an exit before any resolution deadline, against a backdrop of factional disputes and stalled negotiations.
Polymarket डेटा का संदर्भ देने वाला प्रयोगात्मक AI-जनरेटेड सारांश। यह ट्रेडिंग सलाह नहीं है और इस बाज़ार के समाधान में कोई भूमिका नहीं निभाता। · अपडेट किया गया
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