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La Russie récupérera-t-elle le territoire à Vilne d'ici... ?

Market icon

La Russie récupérera-t-elle le territoire à Vilne d'ici... ?

$182,130 Vol.

Nov 30, 2025
Polymarket

$182,130 Vol.

Polymarket

30 novembre

$172,348 Vol.

Non

31 décembre

$9,783 Vol.

Non

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Vilne in Donetsk Oblast by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET.

Territory will be considered captured if any part of Vilne is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”.

Once Russia captures territory of Vilne, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market.

If Russia comes into control of the territory of Vilne as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used.

Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.
Volume
$182,130
Date de fin
Dec 31, 2025
Marché ouvert
Oct 29, 2025, 2:48 PM ET
This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures any territory of Vilne in Donetsk Oblast by November 30, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Territory will be considered captured if any part of Vilne is shaded red on the ISW map (https://storymaps.arcgis.com/stories/36a7f6a6f5a9448496de641cf64bd375) by the resolution date. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No”. Once Russia captures territory of Vilne, any subsequent loss of control will not be considered towards the resolution of this market. If Russia comes into control of the territory of Vilne as a result of a negotiated settlement, this will qualify for a 'Yes' resolution, regardless of whether it is shaded red in the ISW map. However, an announcement of a negotiated settlement that gives Russia de jure control will not qualify. Actual control must be established. The primary resolution source for this market will be the ISW Ukraine map. If the ISW map is rendered unavailable, information from DeepStateMap (https://deepstatemap.live/) may be used. If information from both the ISW and DeepStateMap is rendered permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: Any temporary glitches or errors in the map will not be considered.

Résultat proposé: Non

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: Non

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Frequently Asked Questions

"La Russie récupérera-t-elle le territoire à Vilne d'ici... ?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30 novembre" at 0%, followed by "31 décembre" at 0%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 0¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 0% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "La Russie récupérera-t-elle le territoire à Vilne d'ici... ?" has generated $182.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 29, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "La Russie récupérera-t-elle le territoire à Vilne d'ici... ?," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

This is a wide-open market. The current leader for "La Russie récupérera-t-elle le territoire à Vilne d'ici... ?" is "30 novembre" at just 0%, with "31 décembre" close behind at 0%. With no outcome commanding a strong majority, traders see this as highly uncertain, which can present unique trading opportunities. These odds update in real-time, so bookmark this page to watch how the probabilities evolve.

The resolution rules for "La Russie récupérera-t-elle le territoire à Vilne d'ici... ?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.