Trader consensus prices an 80.5% implied probability on Max Verstappen not retiring from F1 at the end of 2026, despite his post-Japanese Grand Prix comments expressing frustration with the new regulations' "anti-driving" active aero and power unit changes that have left Red Bull's RB22 uncompetitive—ninth in driver standings after three races with Mercedes dominating via Antonelli and Russell wins. Red Bull's dismal start, scoring just 16 constructor points and trailing even Alpine, fuels speculation, but his contract runs through 2028 with an exit clause allowing a summer team switch rather than full retirement. At 28 with four titles, historical leverage tactics without action, and team affirmations of commitment underpin the heavy favoritism for continuation.