Trader consensus on the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner reflects Spain's narrow edge at 17.4% implied probability over France at 16.6%, driven by Spain's top FIFA ranking and flawless European qualifier campaign capped by dominant March friendlies, building on their Euro 2024 triumph with stars like Lamine Yamal shining. France's depth, highlighted by a gritty 2-1 friendly win over Brazil despite playing a man down via Kylian Mbappé's goal, keeps the race tight alongside England (11.1%), defending champions Argentina (8.7%), and Brazil (8.6%), all Pot 1 seeds in a balanced 12-group draw featuring tough matchups like Spain-Uruguay and France-Senegal. Recent qualifier playoffs and power rankings underscore the parity among Europe's elite, with no clear favorite amid expanded 48-team field's upset potential.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourEspagne 17.4%
France 16.7%
Angleterre 11.1%
Argentine 8.7%
$632,611,346 Vol.
$632,611,346 Vol.
Espagne
17%
France
17%
Angleterre
11%
Argentine
9%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
2%
Japon
2%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
Maroc
2%
États-Unis
1%
Mexique
1%
Suisse
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatie
1%
Turquie
1%
Équateur
1%
Sénégal
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Suède
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Panama
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Irak
<1%
Qatar
<1%
Espagne 17.4%
France 16.7%
Angleterre 11.1%
Argentine 8.7%
$632,611,346 Vol.
$632,611,346 Vol.
Espagne
17%
France
17%
Angleterre
11%
Argentine
9%
Brésil
9%
Portugal
7%
Allemagne
5%
Pays-Bas
3%
Norvège
2%
Japon
2%
Belgique
2%
Colombie
2%
Maroc
2%
États-Unis
1%
Mexique
1%
Suisse
1%
Uruguay
1%
Croatie
1%
Turquie
1%
Équateur
1%
Sénégal
1%
Canada
1%
Autriche
1%
Suède
1%
Corée du Sud
<1%
Paraguay
<1%
Côte d'Ivoire
<1%
Bosnie-Herzégovine
<1%
Écosse
<1%
Tchéquie
<1%
Égypte
<1%
Curaçao
<1%
Iran
<1%
Ghana
<1%
Algérie
<1%
Tunisie
<1%
Panama
<1%
Afrique du Sud
<1%
RD Congo
<1%
Cape Verde
<1%
Australie
<1%
Arabie saoudite
<1%
Nouvelle-Zélande
<1%
Haïti
<1%
Jordanie
<1%
Ouzbékistan
<1%
Irak
<1%
Qatar
<1%
If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Marché ouvert : Jul 2, 2025, 6:06 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.
If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on the 2026 FIFA World Cup winner reflects Spain's narrow edge at 17.4% implied probability over France at 16.6%, driven by Spain's top FIFA ranking and flawless European qualifier campaign capped by dominant March friendlies, building on their Euro 2024 triumph with stars like Lamine Yamal shining. France's depth, highlighted by a gritty 2-1 friendly win over Brazil despite playing a man down via Kylian Mbappé's goal, keeps the race tight alongside England (11.1%), defending champions Argentina (8.7%), and Brazil (8.6%), all Pot 1 seeds in a balanced 12-group draw featuring tough matchups like Spain-Uruguay and France-Senegal. Recent qualifier playoffs and power rankings underscore the parity among Europe's elite, with no clear favorite amid expanded 48-team field's upset potential.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Méfiez-vous des liens externes.
Questions fréquentes