Michigan and Arizona share top billing at 34.5% and 34.0% implied probabilities entering the Final Four, reflecting trader consensus on their dominance as No. 1 seeds through a grueling March Madness bracket, capped by Michigan's steamroll of lower seeds and Arizona's balanced attack to reach the semis. The race stays razor-tight because the Wolverines face the Wildcats directly Saturday night—a de facto national title preview—while No. 3 Illinois (17.2%) and No. 2 UConn (13.6%) hold the other semifinal, buoyed by gritty Elite Eight wins but trailing in power rankings and head-to-head projections. Recent injury-free paths and bracket luck underscore the toss-up dynamics among these battle-tested contenders.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourMichigan 35%
Arizona 34.0%
Illinois 17.1%
Connecticut 13.6%
$23,653,656 Vol.
$23,653,656 Vol.
Michigan
35%
Arizona
34%
Illinois
17%
Connecticut
14%
Michigan 35%
Arizona 34.0%
Illinois 17.1%
Connecticut 13.6%
$23,653,656 Vol.
$23,653,656 Vol.
Michigan
35%
Arizona
34%
Illinois
17%
Connecticut
14%
If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
Marché ouvert : Oct 31, 2025, 7:31 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...If it is impossible for a team to win the 2026 NCAA Men’s Basketball Tournament according to the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated) , the corresponding market will immediately resolve to “No”.
If for any reason no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be information from the NCAA.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Michigan and Arizona share top billing at 34.5% and 34.0% implied probabilities entering the Final Four, reflecting trader consensus on their dominance as No. 1 seeds through a grueling March Madness bracket, capped by Michigan's steamroll of lower seeds and Arizona's balanced attack to reach the semis. The race stays razor-tight because the Wolverines face the Wildcats directly Saturday night—a de facto national title preview—while No. 3 Illinois (17.2%) and No. 2 UConn (13.6%) hold the other semifinal, buoyed by gritty Elite Eight wins but trailing in power rankings and head-to-head projections. Recent injury-free paths and bracket luck underscore the toss-up dynamics among these battle-tested contenders.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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