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Qui remportera la médaille Fields 2026 ?

Market icon

Qui remportera la médaille Fields 2026 ?

$369,481 Vol.

30 juil. 2026
Polymarket

$369,481 Vol.

Polymarket

Hong Wang

$48,595 Vol.

77%

Yu Deng

$98,715 Vol.

53%

Jacob Tsimerman

$44,752 Vol.

52%

Jack Thorne

$94,121 Vol.

47%

Sam Raskin

$27 Vol.

39%

John Pardon

$78,800 Vol.

33%

Julian Sahasrabudhe

$0 Vol.

38%

Will Sawin

$3,793 Vol.

18%

Aleksandr Logunov

$159 Vol.

17%

Alexander Efimov

$519 Vol.

13%

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus crowns Hong Wang as the frontrunner for the 2026 Fields Medal, with market-implied odds reaching 76% following her landmark proof of the three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture, a decades-old problem in geometric measure theory. Jacob Tsimerman trails closely at 63% for resolving the André–Oort conjecture in arithmetic geometry, while Jack Thorne, Javier Fresán, and Yu Deng gain traction amid math community buzz on Reddit and recent profiles highlighting their breakthroughs in number theory and algebraic geometry. Recent March media spotlights amplified this momentum, but selections by the secretive International Mathematical Union committee remain unpredictable, with up to four medals for those under 40. Watch for plenary invitations and final preprints ahead of the July 23–30 announcement at ICM 2026 in Philadelphia.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$369,481
Date de fin
30 juil. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.Trader consensus crowns Hong Wang as the frontrunner for the 2026 Fields Medal, with market-implied odds reaching 76% following her landmark proof of the three-dimensional Kakeya conjecture, a decades-old problem in geometric measure theory. Jacob Tsimerman trails closely at 63% for resolving the André–Oort conjecture in arithmetic geometry, while Jack Thorne, Javier Fresán, and Yu Deng gain traction amid math community buzz on Reddit and recent profiles highlighting their breakthroughs in number theory and algebraic geometry. Recent March media spotlights amplified this momentum, but selections by the secretive International Mathematical Union committee remain unpredictable, with up to four medals for those under 40. Watch for plenary invitations and final preprints ahead of the July 23–30 announcement at ICM 2026 in Philadelphia.

The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal.

If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.
Volume
$369,481
Date de fin
30 juil. 2026
Marché ouvert
Jan 6, 2026, 1:51 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The Fields Medal is a prize regarded as the top award in the field of mathematics worldwide. It is awarded to two, three, or four mathematicians under 40 years of age at the International Congress of the International Mathematical Union (IMU), a meeting that takes place every four years. The International Congress of Mathematicians 2026 (ICM 2026) is scheduled to take place from July 23 to July 30, 2026. This market will resolve according to the winners of the 2026 Fields medal. If the 2026 Fields medalists are not announced by August 15, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the IMU (https://www.mathunion.org/imu-awards/fields-medal), however other credible reporting may be used.

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Questions fréquentes

« Qui remportera la médaille Fields 2026 ? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 10 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « Hong Wang » à 77%, suivi de « Yu Deng » à 54%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 77¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 77% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « Qui remportera la médaille Fields 2026 ? » a généré $369.5K en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Jan 6, 2026. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « Qui remportera la médaille Fields 2026 ? », parcourez les 10 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « Qui remportera la médaille Fields 2026 ? » est « Hong Wang » à 77%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 77% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « Yu Deng » à 54%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « Qui remportera la médaille Fields 2026 ? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.