Trader consensus prices a DHS funding lapse ending anytime in April nearly evenly, with 26.5% odds for April 1-4 or 5-8 leading slight favorites amid stalled congressional appropriations talks. House Republicans advanced a fiscal year 2024 Homeland Security bill last week proposing spending cuts and stricter border security measures, but Senate Democrats rejected it over insufficient funding for ICE, CBP, and FEMA operations, blocking a continuing resolution before the latest deadline. This partisan deadlock keeps probabilities dispersed, as no breakthrough emerged from recent bipartisan leadership meetings. Upcoming House floor votes and potential conference committee formation could accelerate resolution, while further entrenchment risks pushing outcomes later into April.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour1-4 avril 27%
5-8 avril 27%
9-12 avril 26%
13-16 avril 26%
Avant le 1er avril
25%
1-4 avril
27%
5-8 avril
27%
9-12 avril
26%
13-16 avril
26%
17-20 avril
26%
21-24 avril
26%
25-28 avril
26%
29-30 avril
26%
Après le 30 avril
26%
1-4 avril 27%
5-8 avril 27%
9-12 avril 26%
13-16 avril 26%
Avant le 1er avril
25%
1-4 avril
27%
5-8 avril
27%
9-12 avril
26%
13-16 avril
26%
17-20 avril
26%
21-24 avril
26%
25-28 avril
26%
29-30 avril
26%
Après le 30 avril
26%
The end date of the shutdown will be determined by the date on which the funding bill required to reopen the Department of Homeland Security is signed by the President or otherwise enacted. The announcement of an impending reopen will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be information from official U.S. Government sources and a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : Mar 25, 2026, 9:40 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus prices a DHS funding lapse ending anytime in April nearly evenly, with 26.5% odds for April 1-4 or 5-8 leading slight favorites amid stalled congressional appropriations talks. House Republicans advanced a fiscal year 2024 Homeland Security bill last week proposing spending cuts and stricter border security measures, but Senate Democrats rejected it over insufficient funding for ICE, CBP, and FEMA operations, blocking a continuing resolution before the latest deadline. This partisan deadlock keeps probabilities dispersed, as no breakthrough emerged from recent bipartisan leadership meetings. Upcoming House floor votes and potential conference committee formation could accelerate resolution, while further entrenchment risks pushing outcomes later into April.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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