Recent leaks of GPT-5.6 routing entries in OpenAI’s Codex backend logs, combined with credible internal codename sightings like Iris-alpha, have driven the strong trader consensus around a June 15–21 window at 59.5% implied probability. Following the April 23 release of GPT-5.5, OpenAI’s accelerated iteration pattern and competitive pressure from models like Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.8 point to a mid-June public rollout, though all signals remain unconfirmed canary tests rather than official announcements. No product card, benchmarks, or executive statements have surfaced in the past week, leaving room for last-minute delays common in frontier large language model cycles. Traders are watching for any developer conference mentions or API updates that could shift the 20.5% probability assigned to “not released by June 28.”
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourJune 15–June 21 57%
Not released by June 28 20%
June 8–June 14 17%
June 22–June 28 14.3%
$61,202 Vol.
$61,202 Vol.
28 juin 2026
June 1–June 7
1%
June 8–June 14
17%
June 15–June 21
61%
June 22–June 28
16%
Not released by June 28
21%
June 15–June 21 57%
Not released by June 28 20%
June 8–June 14 17%
June 22–June 28 14.3%
$61,202 Vol.
$61,202 Vol.
28 juin 2026
June 1–June 7
$12,151 Vol.
1%
June 8–June 14
$10,672 Vol.
17%
June 15–June 21
$2,632 Vol.
61%
June 22–June 28
$2,001 Vol.
16%
Not released by June 28
$6,608 Vol.
21%
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent leaks of GPT-5.6 routing entries in OpenAI’s Codex backend logs, combined with credible internal codename sightings like Iris-alpha, have driven the strong trader consensus around a June 15–21 window at 59.5% implied probability. Following the April 23 release of GPT-5.5, OpenAI’s accelerated iteration pattern and competitive pressure from models like Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.8 point to a mid-June public rollout, though all signals remain unconfirmed canary tests rather than official announcements. No product card, benchmarks, or executive statements have surfaced in the past week, leaving room for last-minute delays common in frontier large language model cycles. Traders are watching for any developer conference mentions or API updates that could shift the 20.5% probability assigned to “not released by June 28.”
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Marché ouvert : May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ET
Volume
$61,202Date de fin
28 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Recent leaks of GPT-5.6 routing entries in OpenAI’s Codex backend logs, combined with credible internal codename sightings like Iris-alpha, have driven the strong trader consensus around a June 15–21 window at 59.5% implied probability. Following the April 23 release of GPT-5.5, OpenAI’s accelerated iteration pattern and competitive pressure from models like Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.8 point to a mid-June public rollout, though all signals remain unconfirmed canary tests rather than official announcements. No product card, benchmarks, or executive statements have surfaced in the past week, leaving room for last-minute delays common in frontier large language model cycles. Traders are watching for any developer conference mentions or API updates that could shift the 20.5% probability assigned to “not released by June 28.”
This market will resolve according to the calendar date (ET) on which OpenAI's GPT-5.6 model is made available to the general public.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
GPT-5.6 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to GPT-5.5, similar to the progression from GPT-5.1 to GPT-5.2. (e.g., GPT-5.7, GPT-5.8, etc., would qualify toward this market)
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models (e.g., GPT-Codex/Transcribe), cost-efficiency variants (e.g., Nano/Mini), or reasoning models of the o-series family will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation GPT-6 or similar will NOT qualify.
A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$61,202Date de fin
28 juin 2026Marché ouvert
May 15, 2026, 6:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent leaks of GPT-5.6 routing entries in OpenAI’s Codex backend logs, combined with credible internal codename sightings like Iris-alpha, have driven the strong trader consensus around a June 15–21 window at 59.5% implied probability. Following the April 23 release of GPT-5.5, OpenAI’s accelerated iteration pattern and competitive pressure from models like Anthropic’s Claude Opus 4.8 point to a mid-June public rollout, though all signals remain unconfirmed canary tests rather than official announcements. No product card, benchmarks, or executive statements have surfaced in the past week, leaving room for last-minute delays common in frontier large language model cycles. Traders are watching for any developer conference mentions or API updates that could shift the 20.5% probability assigned to “not released by June 28.”
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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