Trader sentiment strongly backs Anthropic with a 94% implied probability for the best Text Arena Math AI model by end of August, reflecting its Claude models' established edge in mathematical reasoning benchmarks and complex problem-solving. Recent iterations have shown measurable gains in accuracy on advanced math tasks, outpacing rivals amid a competitive landscape of large language models. OpenAI sits at just 5.2% while Google holds 1.5%, underscoring limited recent momentum elsewhere. Potential late-August releases or updated evaluations from other labs remain the main swing factors that could narrow the gap if they demonstrate clear capability jumps before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jourAnthropic 94%
OpenAI 5.2%
Google 1.5%
Alibaba <1%
$86,449 Vol.
$86,449 Vol.

Anthropic
94%

OpenAI
5%

2%

Alibaba
<1%

SpaceXAI
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Meta
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Bytedance
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Tencent
<1%

StepFun
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Anthropic 94%
OpenAI 5.2%
Google 1.5%
Alibaba <1%
$86,449 Vol.
$86,449 Vol.

Anthropic
94%

OpenAI
5%

2%

Alibaba
<1%

SpaceXAI
<1%

Baidu
<1%

Z.ai
<1%

Xiaomi
<1%

Moonshot
<1%

Meta
<1%

Nvidia
<1%

DeepSeek
<1%

MiniMax
<1%

Meituan
<1%

Amazon
<1%

Bytedance
<1%

Mistral
<1%

Tencent
<1%

StepFun
<1%

Microsoft
<1%
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Marché ouvert : Jul 16, 2026, 11:05 PM ET
Source de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Source de résolution
https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-controlResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment strongly backs Anthropic with a 94% implied probability for the best Text Arena Math AI model by end of August, reflecting its Claude models' established edge in mathematical reasoning benchmarks and complex problem-solving. Recent iterations have shown measurable gains in accuracy on advanced math tasks, outpacing rivals amid a competitive landscape of large language models. OpenAI sits at just 5.2% while Google holds 1.5%, underscoring limited recent momentum elsewhere. Potential late-August releases or updated evaluations from other labs remain the main swing factors that could narrow the gap if they demonstrate clear capability jumps before resolution.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket. Ceci n'est pas un conseil de trading et ne joue aucun rôle dans la résolution de ce marché. · Mis à jour
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