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What day will GPT-5 be released…?

Market icon

What day will GPT-5 be released…?

August 7 100.0%

August 5 <1%

August 6 <1%

August 8 <1%

Polymarket

$2,849,586 Vol.

August 7 100.0%

August 5 <1%

August 6 <1%

August 8 <1%

Polymarket

$2,849,586 Vol.

August 5

$25,790 Vol.

No

August 6

$196,001 Vol.

No

August 7

$1,657,167 Vol.

Yes

August 8

$195,026 Vol.

No

August 9

$126,682 Vol.

No

August 10

$106,430 Vol.

No

August 11

$122,649 Vol.

No

August 12

$103,695 Vol.

No

August 13

$75,210 Vol.

No

August 14

$106,778 Vol.

No

August 15+

$134,157 Vol.

No

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) OpenAI's GPT-5 model is made available to the general public. To qualify, GPT-5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5 (e.g. ChatGPT-5o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) OpenAI's GPT-5 model is made available to the general public.

To qualify, GPT-5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

GPT-5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5 (e.g. ChatGPT-5o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,849,586
Date de fin
15 août 2025
Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2025, 11:43 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) OpenAI's GPT-5 model is made available to the general public. To qualify, GPT-5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5 (e.g. ChatGPT-5o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Résultat proposé: No

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: No

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) OpenAI's GPT-5 model is made available to the general public. To qualify, GPT-5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5 (e.g. ChatGPT-5o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve according to the date (ET) OpenAI's GPT-5 model is made available to the general public.

To qualify, GPT-5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public.

GPT-5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5 (e.g. ChatGPT-5o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$2,849,586
Date de fin
15 août 2025
Marché ouvert
Aug 4, 2025, 11:43 PM ET
This market will resolve according to the date (ET) OpenAI's GPT-5 model is made available to the general public. To qualify, GPT-5 must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be clearly defined and publicly announced by OpenAI as being accessible to the general public. GPT-5 refers to a product explicitly named GPT-5 (e.g. ChatGPT-5o would count), or one that is recognized as a successor to GPT-4, similar to the progression from GPT-3 to GPT-4. Products labeled as GPT-4.5 or similar will not count for this market's resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

Résultat proposé: No

Aucune contestation

Résultat final: No

Méfiez-vous des liens externes.

Questions fréquentes

« What day will GPT-5 be released…? » est un marché de prédiction sur Polymarket avec 11 résultats possibles où les traders achètent et vendent des parts selon ce qu'ils pensent qu'il se passera. Le résultat en tête actuel est « August 7 » à 100%, suivi de « August 5 » à 0%. Les prix reflètent des probabilités en temps réel de la communauté. Par exemple, une part cotée à 100¢ implique que le marché attribue collectivement une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Ces cotes changent en permanence. Les parts du résultat correct sont échangeables contre $1 chacune lors de la résolution du marché.

À ce jour, « What day will GPT-5 be released…? » a généré $2.8 million en volume total de trading depuis le lancement du marché le Aug 5, 2025. Ce niveau d'activité reflète un fort engagement de la communauté Polymarket et garantit que les cotes actuelles sont alimentées par un large bassin de participants. Vous pouvez suivre les mouvements de prix en direct et trader sur n'importe quel résultat directement sur cette page.

Pour trader sur « What day will GPT-5 be released…? », parcourez les 11 résultats disponibles sur cette page. Chaque résultat affiche un prix actuel représentant la probabilité implicite du marché. Pour prendre position, sélectionnez le résultat que vous estimez le plus probable, choisissez « Oui » pour trader en sa faveur ou « Non » pour trader contre, entrez votre montant et cliquez sur « Trader ». Si votre résultat choisi est correct lors de la résolution, vos parts « Oui » rapportent $1 chacune. S'il est incorrect, elles rapportent $0. Vous pouvez également vendre vos parts avant la résolution.

Le favori actuel pour « What day will GPT-5 be released…? » est « August 7 » à 100%, ce qui signifie que le marché attribue une probabilité de 100% à ce résultat. Le résultat le plus proche ensuite est « August 5 » à 0%. Ces cotes sont mises à jour en temps réel à mesure que les traders achètent et vendent des parts. Revenez fréquemment ou ajoutez cette page à vos favoris.

Les règles de résolution de « What day will GPT-5 be released…? » définissent exactement ce qui doit se produire pour que chaque résultat soit déclaré gagnant, y compris les sources de données officielles utilisées pour déterminer le résultat. Vous pouvez consulter les critères de résolution complets dans la section « Règles » sur cette page au-dessus des commentaires. Nous recommandons de lire attentivement les règles avant de trader, car elles précisent les conditions exactes, les cas particuliers et les sources.