Inter's commanding six-point lead atop the Serie A table after 30 matches, with a league-best +42 goal difference from 66 goals scored, drives their 82.5% implied probability as Scudetto favorite, despite dropping points in recent fixtures like a 1-1 draw at Fiorentina amid a post-international break stutter. AC Milan (8.8%) sits second on 63 points with a solid +24 GD and improving injury woes, while Napoli (6.8%) lurks one point back at 62 after four straight wins post-crisis, though Romelu Lukaku's likely absence heightens stakes for their April 6 showdown with Milan that could reshape the runner-up chase. Trailing packs like Juventus, Atalanta, Como, and Roma face steep 12+ point deficits and tougher slates, cementing low trader consensus on upsets.