Rep. Kevin Hern's commanding 90.5% implied probability in the Oklahoma Republican U.S. Senate primary stems from President Trump's March 13 endorsement, which prompted Gov. Kevin Stitt and Rep. Stephanie Bice to exit the race within 48 hours, effectively clearing the field for the open seat vacated by Sen. Markwayne Mullin's DHS secretary nomination. Bolstered by subsequent backing from Senate Majority Leader John Thune and NRSC Chair Tim Scott on March 19, plus Hern's $2.2 million fundraising edge, traders view him as the prohibitive nominee ahead of the June 16 primary. Challengers like Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell trail amid weak momentum, though a late scandal, rival mega-endorsement, or Trump reversal could disrupt this consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourVainqueur de la primaire du Sénat républicain de l'Oklahoma
Vainqueur de la primaire du Sénat républicain de l'Oklahoma
Kevin Hern 91%
Nick Hankins 2.6%
Matt Pinnell 2.4%
Wayne Lonny Washington 1.7%
$12,834 Vol.
$12,834 Vol.
Kevin Hern
91%
Nick Hankins
3%
Matt Pinnell
2%
Wayne Lonny Washington
2%
John M. O’Connor
2%
Stephanie Bice
1%
Markwayne Mullin
1%
Ron Meinhardt
1%
Tammy Swearengin
1%
Donelle Harder
<1%
Kevin Hern 91%
Nick Hankins 2.6%
Matt Pinnell 2.4%
Wayne Lonny Washington 1.7%
$12,834 Vol.
$12,834 Vol.
Kevin Hern
91%
Nick Hankins
3%
Matt Pinnell
2%
Wayne Lonny Washington
2%
John M. O’Connor
2%
Stephanie Bice
1%
Markwayne Mullin
1%
Ron Meinhardt
1%
Tammy Swearengin
1%
Donelle Harder
<1%
If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Marché ouvert : Mar 5, 2026, 5:09 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...If no 2026 Oklahoma Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Oklahoma Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Rep. Kevin Hern's commanding 90.5% implied probability in the Oklahoma Republican U.S. Senate primary stems from President Trump's March 13 endorsement, which prompted Gov. Kevin Stitt and Rep. Stephanie Bice to exit the race within 48 hours, effectively clearing the field for the open seat vacated by Sen. Markwayne Mullin's DHS secretary nomination. Bolstered by subsequent backing from Senate Majority Leader John Thune and NRSC Chair Tim Scott on March 19, plus Hern's $2.2 million fundraising edge, traders view him as the prohibitive nominee ahead of the June 16 primary. Challengers like Lt. Gov. Matt Pinnell trail amid weak momentum, though a late scandal, rival mega-endorsement, or Trump reversal could disrupt this consensus.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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