Polymarket traders show a razor-thin split in India annual CPI inflation for 2026, with 37.5% implied probability on 2.25-2.99% narrowly leading 35.0% for 4.50%+, reflecting February 2026's uptick to 3.21%—a 10-month high under the new 2024=100 base—from volatile food and personal care prices, offsetting the Reserve Bank of India's benign FY26 average projection of 2.1%. This contest hinges on food inflation trajectory versus supply-side moderation, with global oil risks adding upside pressure amid steady repo rate at 5.25% and neutral stance. Key swing factors include upcoming RBI MPC (April 6-8) signals and March CPI release around April 13, alongside monsoon outlook and commodity trends.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour4,50 % + 36%
2,25 % à 2,99 % 34%
3,75 % à 4,49 % 19%
<0,75 % 14%
$57,251 Vol.
$57,251 Vol.
<0,75 %
14%
0,75 % à 1,49 %
5%
1,50 % à 2,24 %
14%
2,25 % à 2,99 %
34%
3,00 % à 3,74 %
10%
3,75 % à 4,49 %
19%
4,50 % +
36%
4,50 % + 36%
2,25 % à 2,99 % 34%
3,75 % à 4,49 % 19%
<0,75 % 14%
$57,251 Vol.
$57,251 Vol.
<0,75 %
14%
0,75 % à 1,49 %
5%
1,50 % à 2,24 %
14%
2,25 % à 2,99 %
34%
3,00 % à 3,74 %
10%
3,75 % à 4,49 %
19%
4,50 % +
36%
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Marché ouvert : Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the percentage change in India’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (Year-on-Year inflation, over the same month of the previous year), according to the monthly MoSPI Consumer Price Index report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the MoSPI Consumer Price Index report released for December 2026, currently scheduled to be released on January 12, 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://mospi.gov.in/latest-releases
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Indian Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://www.mospi.gov.in/uploads/documents/releaseCalender/1770293210621-ADVANCE%20RELEASE%20CALENDAR%202026-27%20FINAL%2005.02.2026.pdf
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Polymarket traders show a razor-thin split in India annual CPI inflation for 2026, with 37.5% implied probability on 2.25-2.99% narrowly leading 35.0% for 4.50%+, reflecting February 2026's uptick to 3.21%—a 10-month high under the new 2024=100 base—from volatile food and personal care prices, offsetting the Reserve Bank of India's benign FY26 average projection of 2.1%. This contest hinges on food inflation trajectory versus supply-side moderation, with global oil risks adding upside pressure amid steady repo rate at 5.25% and neutral stance. Key swing factors include upcoming RBI MPC (April 6-8) signals and March CPI release around April 13, alongside monsoon outlook and commodity trends.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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