Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, with 98% implied probability reflecting alignment with CME FedWatch Tool probabilities near 98.4%, backed by the Fed's March decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and anchored inflation expectations. Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks emphasized a "good place" for policy to "wait and see" energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, like oil spikes, tempering cut or hike prospects despite recent soft February nonfarm payrolls. Upside risks to a 25 basis point hike (<1% odds) hinge on hotter March CPI due April 10 or escalating inflation; downside cut scenarios (<1%) require sharper labor weakness in tomorrow's March jobs report.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jourDécision de la Fed en avril ?
Décision de la Fed en avril ?
Aucun changement 98.0%
Augmentation de 25 points de base ou plus <1%
réduction de 25 points de base <1%
Titre d'élément de groupe: Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$46,941,596 Vol.
$46,941,596 Vol.
29 avr. 2026
Titre d'élément de groupe: Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
<1%
réduction de 25 points de base
1%
Aucun changement
98%
Augmentation de 25 points de base ou plus
1%
Aucun changement 98.0%
Augmentation de 25 points de base ou plus <1%
réduction de 25 points de base <1%
Titre d'élément de groupe: Baisse de plus de 50 points de base <1%
$46,941,596 Vol.
$46,941,596 Vol.
29 avr. 2026
Titre d'élément de groupe: Baisse de plus de 50 points de base
$16,581,718 Vol.
<1%
réduction de 25 points de base
$9,573,783 Vol.
1%
Aucun changement
$10,028,560 Vol.
98%
Augmentation de 25 points de base ou plus
$10,759,060 Vol.
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, with 98% implied probability reflecting alignment with CME FedWatch Tool probabilities near 98.4%, backed by the Fed's March decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and anchored inflation expectations. Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks emphasized a "good place" for policy to "wait and see" energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, like oil spikes, tempering cut or hike prospects despite recent soft February nonfarm payrolls. Upside risks to a 25 basis point hike (<1% odds) hinge on hotter March CPI due April 10 or escalating inflation; downside cut scenarios (<1%) require sharper labor weakness in tomorrow's March jobs report.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Marché ouvert : Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
Volume
$46,941,596Date de fin
29 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, with 98% implied probability reflecting alignment with CME FedWatch Tool probabilities near 98.4%, backed by the Fed's March decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and anchored inflation expectations. Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks emphasized a "good place" for policy to "wait and see" energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, like oil spikes, tempering cut or hike prospects despite recent soft February nonfarm payrolls. Upside risks to a 25 basis point hike (<1% odds) hinge on hotter March CPI due April 10 or escalating inflation; downside cut scenarios (<1%) require sharper labor weakness in tomorrow's March jobs report.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
Volume
$46,941,596Date de fin
29 avr. 2026Marché ouvert
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly favors no change in the federal funds rate at the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, with 98% implied probability reflecting alignment with CME FedWatch Tool probabilities near 98.4%, backed by the Fed's March decision to hold steady at 3.50%-3.75% amid steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year and anchored inflation expectations. Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks emphasized a "good place" for policy to "wait and see" energy shocks from geopolitical tensions, like oil spikes, tempering cut or hike prospects despite recent soft February nonfarm payrolls. Upside risks to a 25 basis point hike (<1% odds) hinge on hotter March CPI due April 10 or escalating inflation; downside cut scenarios (<1%) require sharper labor weakness in tomorrow's March jobs report.
Résumé expérimental généré par IA à partir des données Polymarket · Mis à jour
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