Improved notification preferences and types.

notifications_v2

authenticated_book_ws

Improved in-game view for sports markets.

mobile_sports_overlay_v2

async_order_submission

Enable updates from the sports websocket.

sports_websocket

Show/hide language selector in navigation

language_selector

Auto-detect and redirect based on browser language

auto_locale_detection

Show BTC 15-minute up/down market in 3rd slot on homepage.

homepage_btc_15m_slot

signup_prompt

Show personalized Picked for You shelf on homepage

picked_for_you

Auto-redeem prompt for closed market positions

auto_redeem

Kill switch — when enabled, hides sponsor and cancel-sponsorship UI

disable_sponsor_markets

Route /search and navbar search to Shaped-backed /search-v3 (vs Typesense /search-v2).

search_v3

Enables the new contracts (PMCT) migration: post-migration modal, USDCe→pUSD wrap UI, new allowance reads/approvals, balance upgrade prompts, and the cancelled-orders portfolio tab.

enable_pmct_migration

Lower is better. Brier scores show how accurate predictions really are — not just if they were correct, but how close the prediction was to being right.

Brier Score vs Volume

Polymarket forecasts closely align with actual outcomes across all probability ranges.

Expected vs Actual

Frequently Asked Questions

All metrics are calculated from resolved polymarkets, using price snapshots taken 1 month, 1 week, 1 day, 12 hours, and 4 hours before resolution. Accuracy reflects how often the final leading outcome matched reality, and Brier scores measure the average squared error of predictions.

Methods

How accurate is Polymarket?

Shows how accurate Polymarket odds were at different points before they resolved.

Accuracy prior to resolution

Shows the percentages of all polymarkets that ended up resolving to "Yes" or "No".

Resolution Composition

Approve token spending for trading

Deploy a smart contract wallet to enable trading

Sign a message to generate your API keys

Enable Trading

Funds Activated

Your account needs to migrate to a new wallet to continue trading. Deploy your new deposit wallet, then transfer your funds over.

Upgrade your account

Activate your funds first

Migration complete

Wallet is still deploying

How we calculate fees

Trading fees across all Polymarket categories.

Fees

Buy ‘Yes’ or ‘No’ shares depending on your prediction. Odds shift in real time as other traders get in on the action.

1. Pick a Polymarket

1. Explore our Polymarkets

Fund your account with crypto, debit card, or bank transfer—then you're ready to trade.

2. Place a Trade

Sell your 'Yes' or 'No' shares at any time, or wait until the market ends to redeem winning shares for $1 each. Create an account and place your first trade in minutes.

3. Redeem

Your session needs to be reset in order to make transactions. Please log out and then back in to reset your session.

Connection Issue

and attest that you are not (i) a U.S. person; (ii) located in the United States, France or other restricted jurisdiction; and (iii) using a VPN or other measures to circumvent or attempt to circumvent restrictions. Polymarket reserves the right to put your wallet in close-only mode if you do not comply with these Terms.

Trade on Polymarket

To continue to access trading functionality on the site, please complete the following Google Form to certify that you are not a US resident or located in the United States:

Proof of Residence Required

for more information, including if you think you are receiving this message in error.

Your account has been placed into close only mode due to a potential violation of our Terms of Service. You may close out of your existing positions but not enter into new ones. Reach out to

Trading Halted

Trading is unavailable in the locations below. Use of measures to circumvent or attempt to circumvent these restrictions is prohibited.

View-only mode

{count} Orders

When you win, your payout hits your balance automatically. No more manual steps.

Auto-Redeem Disabled

Auto-Redeem Enabled

Auto-Redeem Failed

Re-enable Auto-Redeem

Auto-redeem wins

Get Paid Instantly

Something went wrong

You can close out these resolved positions to realize the loss.

Polymarkets Lost

Redeem Failed

This will merge all eligible market positions.

Merge ${amount} in positions

Your winnings are ready. Get back to trading!

I just won ${amount} on @Polymarket!

Join me and put your money where your mouth is:

Your Polymarket Wallet Address

For multi-outcome events, like “{topMultiOutcomeMarketTitle},” you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

For multi-outcome events, you simply trade on the specific outcome you think will win.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question, like “{topYesNoMarketTitle}”. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes.

Each polymarket is a yes/no question. You buy shares in “yes” or “no” outcomes.

For complete clarity, you can check the “Rules” section on any individual market page like “{topTrendingMarketTitle},” to see the exact criteria and sources used to determine the winner.

For complete clarity, you can check the “Rules” section on any individual market page to see the exact criteria and sources used to determine the winner.

It’s a free way to track market sentiment on major outcomes like “{topMultiOutcomeMarketTitle}” without ever needing to place a trade.

It’s a free way to track market sentiment on major outcomes without ever needing to place a trade.

I just put my money where my mouth is on @Polymarket.

Trade against me:

Merge a share of Yes and No to get 1 USDC. You can do this to save cost when trying to get rid of a position.

Merge shares

Order Book

Major Price Slippage

Split a USDC into a share of Yes and No. You can do this to save cost by getting both and just selling the other side.

Split shares

By trading, you agree to the Terms of Use, including that you are not (i) a U.S. person and (ii) located in the United States, France or other restricted territory.

To start trading with the upgraded system, approve the migration in your wallet. This is a one-time action.

Complete migration

Your USDC.e will be converted to pUSD at a 1:1 rate. No fees, all positions included, fully redeemable.

Balance migration

Your unfilled limit orders were cancelled as part of the upgrade. No fees were charged, and all funds have been returned to your balance.

Limit Orders Cancelled

Please log in to your account so we can migrate your balance and approve the new contracts.

Fees

Standard fees