Name: Will the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by...?
Start: 2023-06-29T20:22:33.748Z
End: 2023-12-31T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Bitcoin ETF from BlackRock receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2023, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Blackrock, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


December 31

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Bitcoin ETF from BlackRock receives approval from the SEC by March 30, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Blackrock, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


March 30

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a Bitcoin ETF from BlackRock receives approval from the SEC on or before August 31, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Blackrock, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


August 31

Will the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by...?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if net Bitcoin ETF flows in 2025 are greater than $33.6B (the total net flows recorded in 2024). Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

Net flows for 2025 will be calculated by subtracting the cumulative flow shown on January 1, 2025 from the cumulative flow shown on December 31, 2025.

A daily cumulative flow data point on Farside will be considered finalized once the data point for the following day is published.

The resolution source is Farside’s Bitcoin Spot ETF Total Cumulative Flow chart available at https://farside.co.uk/btc/

This market resolves solely according to the cumulative flow values displayed on Farside, not according to other ETF flow sources.

If Farside becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve using other credible and publicly verifiable sources.

Will Bitcoin ETFs attract more flows in 2025 than in 2024?

On December 9, Google introduced Willow, a breakthrough state-of-the-art quantum chip. This achievement fueled speculation that Bitcoin's encryption may be vulnerable to quantum computers in the not-so-distant future (see https://www.cryptoglobe.com/latest/2024/12/does-googles-new-quantum-chip-willow-threaten-bitcoin-the-crypto-community-responds/).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Bitcoin stops using SHA-256 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the Bitcoin blockchain, in addition to a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Bitcoin replace SHA-256 before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto

If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.




Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Backpack (https://x.com/Backpack) officially launches a governance token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Backpack, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation of Backpack's token is greater than the value specified in the title 1 day after launch. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No."

The token must be actively, publicly transferable and tradable to be considered a launch.

"1 day after launch" is defined as 4:00 PM ET on the calendar day following launch. The resolution source for this market is the most liquid price source available. If Backpack (https://x.com/Backpack) doesn't launch a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, the number of Bitcoin Knots nodes exceeds the number of Bitcoin Core nodes. Otherwise, it will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is https://coin.dance/nodes/all, specifically the “Bitcoin Nodes” chart set to “MTD.”
Resolution will be based on the node counts displayed when hovering over each date for Bitcoin Core Nodes and Bitcoin Knots Nodes.

A data point for a given day will be considered finalized once data for the following day is published.

If the resolution source becomes permanently unavailable within this market’s timeframe and before resolution criteria are met, the market will resolve based on a reliable alternative source or public data consistent with the official Bitcoin node counts.

Will the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by...?

August 31
$105,646 Vol.
No

December 31
$147,341 Vol.
No

March 30
$16,199 Vol.
Yes

Market Context

Will the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by...?

Rules

Will the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by...?

Market Context

Will the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by...?

About

Related

Will the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by...?

August 31$105,646 Vol.Nocircle xmark

December 31$147,341 Vol.Nocircle xmark

March 30$16,199 Vol.Yescircle check

Market Context

Will the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by...?

Rules

Will the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by...?

Market Context

Will the SEC approve BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF by...?

About

Related

August 31
$105,646 Vol.
No

December 31
$147,341 Vol.
No

March 30
$16,199 Vol.
Yes