Name: Will SBF tweet again by Friday?
Start: 2025-02-25T02:34:01.785816Z
End: 2025-02-28T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Sam Bankman-Fried (@SBF_FTX) posts/tweets again between February 24, 2025, 9:25 PM ET, and February 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Posts include any post, repost, or reply.

The resolution source for this market is https://x.com/SBF_FTX.

Will SBF tweet again by Friday?

Sam Bankman-Fried is tweeting again (https://x.com/SBF_FTX/status/1970633704323362904).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sam Bankman-Fried is released from custody by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If Sam Bankman-Fried is released but remains under house arrest, the market will still resolve to "Yes".

If Sam Bankman-Fried is released on parole, bond, or any other condition that results in them leaving state custody, the market will resolve to "Yes".

Transporting Sam Bankman-Fried  to another location of custody (e.g., a different prison, court, or hospital within the correctional system) will not suffice to resolve this market to "Yes".

Temporary outings from prison for purposes such as testifying in court or before Congress, while still under the custody of correctional authorities, will not count as a release.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from government authorities or corrections departments; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

SBF released from custody in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if @TheRoaringKitty posts between July 23, 10:40 AM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, all quote and reply posts count toward a "Yes" resolution, but reposts will not count.

The resolution source for this market will be Roaring Kitty's verified X account: https://x.com/TheRoaringKitty.

Please note, only the @TheRoaringKitty verified X account counts for this market, regardless of the URL for this profile. If Roaring Kitty posts from another account, it has no bearing on the resolution of this market.

Will Roaring Kitty tweet again by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Elon Musk (@elonmusk) unfollows Grimes (@Grimezsz) on X at any point between December 10, 2025, 2PM ET and January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

If either of the ‘@elonmusk’ or ‘@Grimezsz’ X accounts are deleted or disabled this market will immediately resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk X account (@elonmusk), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Elon Musk unfollow Grimes by January 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 22, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 28, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Very Merry Christmas" this week? (December 22 - 28)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Elon Musk (@elonmusk) changes his X profile picture by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be Elon Musk's X account: https://x.com/elonmusk

For an example of what Elon Musk's X pfp was at the time of this market's inception, see this link: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/elonmuskpfp12042025.png


Will Elon Musk change his X profile picture by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Sentient officially launches a token by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Sentient (https://www.sentient.xyz/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Sentient launch a token in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MrBeast (@mrbeast) changes his X profile picture by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be MrBeast's X account: https://x.com/mrbeast

For an example of what MrBeast's X pfp was at the time of this market's inception, see this link: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/mrbeastpfpdec.png

Will MrBeast change his X profile picture by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy sells any of its Bitcoin by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from MSTR and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any wallet labeled as belonging to Satoshi Nakamoto on Arkham’s Intel Explorer shows an “Outflow” or “Swaps” transaction before December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market is Arkham’s Intel Explorer, specifically the entity page for Satoshi Nakamoto available at https://intel.arkm.com/explorer/entity/satoshi-nakamoto

If Arkham becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on a consensus of credible sources.




Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Felix Protocol officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Felix Protocol, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Felix Protocol launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump’s Truth Social post published on the morning of December 15, 2025, regarding the passing of Rob Reiner (https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/115724141568860081) is deleted at any point between this market’s creation and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

A qualifying deletion includes the post being removed for any duration, regardless of whether it is later reposted.

Edits to the post will not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Donald Trump’s official Truth Social account; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump remove his Rob Reiner post?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 10, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- MrBeast hits 500 million subscribers
- Trump meets MrBeast in 2025
- Another MrBeast video gets 55m+ day 1 views 

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/mrbeast.png

Nothing Ever Happens: MrBeast Edition

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between December 1, 2025, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count towards the resolution of this market.

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Knucklehead" or "Numbskull" or "Numskull" in December?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Base officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Base, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any weekly bar in the Kaito “Mindshare over time (L12M)” chart reaches a new all-time high at any point between November 19 and 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. If no new all-time high occurs, the market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source is the creator’s page on Kaito. The weekly bar chart can be viewed by clicking the creator’s name at: https://yaps.kaito.ai/ct-leaderboard

A weekly bar counts as long as its date range includes the target date. A weekly bar is considered finalized once a bar for the following week is published.

Only the weekly values shown in the L12M chart are used for resolution.

If the Kaito page is temporarily unavailable at resolution time, the market will remain open until it returns. If it becomes permanently unavailable, the market will resolve to “No.”

Cobie mindshare all time high by March 31?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump mentions the listed term between November 19, 2025, 12:00 PM ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Pluralization/possessive of the word will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

A ‘mention’ will include any verbal mention which is recorded (audio or video) and publicly accessible.

Written usages of terms (e.g. Truth Social posts, written statements, etc.) will not count toward this market's resolution.

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

Videos posted on his social media which were filmed outside this market's time frame will not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

Will Trump say "Polymarket" by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump Media & Technology Group (TMTG) announces that it has acquired more Bitcoin between July 24 11:00 ET, 2025, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from TMTG, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Will Trump Media buy more Bitcoin in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the U.S. announces that they are occupying/using Bagram air base in Afghanistan for military or intelligence operations by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official announcements form the U.S government and military.

US announces return to Bagram base in Afghanistan by December 31?

If a Bitcoin hard fork occurs between July 7 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Bitcoin hard fork before 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Bitcoin comparatively outperforms the S&P 500 (SPX) in December 2025, with performance measured as the percentage change in price during the month for each asset. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The percentage change in price for Bitcoin will be calculated by comparing the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT December 31, 2025 11:59 PM in the ET timezone to the "Close" price for the Binance 1 minute candle for BTC/USDT December 1, 2025 12:00 AM in the ET timezone.

The percentage change in the S&P 500 (SPX) will be calculated by comparing the official S&P 500 (SPX) Close price for the last trading day in December to the official S&P 500 (SPX) Close price for the last trading day in November, as reported by the Wall Street Journal.

If either of the relevant days have no official closing price (for example, due to a trading halt into the market close, system issue, delisting, or other disruption), the market will use the last valid on-exchange trade price of the regular session as the effective closing price.

The resolution sources for this market are Binance, specifically the BTC/USDT "Close" prices currently available at https://www.binance.com/en/trade/BTC_USDT with "1m" and "Candles" selected on the top bar, and the Wall Street Journal, specifically the Close values published by the WSJ under "Historical Prices" (US: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks, EMEA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/emea, ASIA: https://www.wsj.com/market-data/stocks/asia).

Bitcoin outperforms S&P 500 in December?

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between this market’s creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET:

- Elon Musk rejoins Trump Administration
- Trump deports Elon Musk
- Elon Musk trillionaire
- Another Elon baby

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Nothing+Ever+Happens+Elon+Musk+Edition.pdf

Nothing Ever Happens: Elon Edition

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Infinex (https://infinex.xyz/) officially launches a token by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be publicly announced and transferable on a blockchain. If a first such token launch occurs outside of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be public announcements from Infinex.

Will Infinex launch a token by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for June 2026, currently scheduled for June 16-17. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If no June meeting takes place by July 7, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". 

Emergency rate cuts will qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that Meta Platforms, Inc. has reached a settlement with the Federal Trade Commission over the issues outlined in the Federal Trade Commission v. Meta Platforms, Inc. (Case No. 1:20-cv-03590-JEB) case by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Meta settle with the FTC?

On November 18, Texas Representative Giovanni Capriglione introduced H.B. 1598, a bill to establish a strategic bitcoin reserve within the state treasury (see: https://www.cnbc.com/2024/12/12/texas-house-introduces-bill-to-establish-a-strategic-bitcoin-reserve.html).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if H.B. 1598, the Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act, is signed into law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source will be official information from the Texas Legislature or a consensus of credible reporting. 

Texas Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act (H.B. 1598) signed in 2025?

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the target for the overnight interbank interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Mexico's February 2026 meeting.

The resolution source for this market is information released by the Bank of Mexico after its February 5, 2026 policy meeting, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar: https://www.banxico.org.mx/politica-monetaria/d/%7B3B4BDA5B-E7E8-E414-2066-DA0CB3F7C36F%7D.pdf

This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Mexico's statement for their February meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.

Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the February meeting?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any spot Pepe (https://etherscan.io/token/0x6982508145454ce325ddbe47a25d4ec3d2311933) ETF receives approval from the SEC by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Approval under Rule 19-4b will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, even if there has not been an S-1 approval. Similarly, an S-1 approval without a 19-4b approval will also qualify for a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the SEC, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Pepe ETF in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Bureau of Labor Statistics fails to release any monthly report on the Consumer Price Index by 11:59PM ET on the scheduled release date between December 1, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If an announcement is made by the White House or the BLS that the monthly CPI release will be delayed or cancelled altogether, this market will immediately resolve to "Yes".

The resolution source for this market will be information from the BLS or a consensus of credible reporting. 

Will SBF tweet again by Friday?

Market Context

Will SBF tweet again by Friday?

Rules

Will SBF tweet again by Friday?

Market Context

Will SBF tweet again by Friday?

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