Will Apple create a backdoor for user data in iCloud?
<1% chance
$23,422 Vol.
$23,422 Vol.
Jun 30, 2025
<1% chance
$23,422 Vol.
$23,422 Vol.
Jun 30, 2025
This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence is made public by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that Apple has implemented a backdoor allowing it or a third party to access user data in iCloud. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For the purpose of this market, a "backdoor" is defined as an intentional mechanism that bypasses encryption or other security measures, granting access to user data without the account holder's consent. Vulnerabilities, exploits, or misconfigurations that are not deliberately placed by Apple will not qualify unless credible reporting confirms they were knowingly introduced as a covert access method.
Confirmation from Apple or the government of a G7 country will qualify as "definitive evidence".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, or statements from Apple, or the government of a G7 country.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence is made public by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that Apple has implemented a backdoor allowing it or a third party to access user data in iCloud. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For the purpose of this market, a "backdoor" is defined as an intentional mechanism that bypasses encryption or other security measures, granting access to user data without the account holder's consent. Vulnerabilities, exploits, or misconfigurations that are not deliberately placed by Apple will not qualify unless credible reporting confirms they were knowingly introduced as a covert access method.
Confirmation from Apple or the government of a G7 country will qualify as "definitive evidence".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, or statements from Apple, or the government of a G7 country.
For the purpose of this market, a "backdoor" is defined as an intentional mechanism that bypasses encryption or other security measures, granting access to user data without the account holder's consent. Vulnerabilities, exploits, or misconfigurations that are not deliberately placed by Apple will not qualify unless credible reporting confirms they were knowingly introduced as a covert access method.
Confirmation from Apple or the government of a G7 country will qualify as "definitive evidence".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, or statements from Apple, or the government of a G7 country.
Market Opened: Feb 7, 2025, 12:55 PM ET
Volume
$23,422End Date
Jun 30, 2025Market Opened
Feb 7, 2025, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x6a9d22261...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No
This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence is made public by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that Apple has implemented a backdoor allowing it or a third party to access user data in iCloud. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For the purpose of this market, a "backdoor" is defined as an intentional mechanism that bypasses encryption or other security measures, granting access to user data without the account holder's consent. Vulnerabilities, exploits, or misconfigurations that are not deliberately placed by Apple will not qualify unless credible reporting confirms they were knowingly introduced as a covert access method.
Confirmation from Apple or the government of a G7 country will qualify as "definitive evidence".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, or statements from Apple, or the government of a G7 country.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if definitive evidence is made public by June 30, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, that Apple has implemented a backdoor allowing it or a third party to access user data in iCloud. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
For the purpose of this market, a "backdoor" is defined as an intentional mechanism that bypasses encryption or other security measures, granting access to user data without the account holder's consent. Vulnerabilities, exploits, or misconfigurations that are not deliberately placed by Apple will not qualify unless credible reporting confirms they were knowingly introduced as a covert access method.
Confirmation from Apple or the government of a G7 country will qualify as "definitive evidence".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, or statements from Apple, or the government of a G7 country.
For the purpose of this market, a "backdoor" is defined as an intentional mechanism that bypasses encryption or other security measures, granting access to user data without the account holder's consent. Vulnerabilities, exploits, or misconfigurations that are not deliberately placed by Apple will not qualify unless credible reporting confirms they were knowingly introduced as a covert access method.
Confirmation from Apple or the government of a G7 country will qualify as "definitive evidence".
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting, or statements from Apple, or the government of a G7 country.
Volume
$0End Date
Jun 30, 2025Market Opened
Feb 7, 2025, 12:55 PM ETResolver
0x6a9d22261...Outcome proposed: No
No dispute
Final outcome: No




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