BTS’s “Swim” leads trader sentiment for VMA Song of the Year at a 61% implied probability, driven by the group’s unmatched global fan mobilization and sustained commercial momentum. The track, the lead single from the March 2026 album Arirang, debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, maintained strong streaming and radio presence, and earned dual nominations including Best K-Pop. Fan voting, which closes September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony in Los Angeles, historically favors acts with organized, high-volume supporter bases like ARMY. Lower odds for “Choosin’ Texas,” “Bring Your Love,” and the remaining nominees reflect comparatively lighter voting turnout despite solid chart or critical profiles. The market will likely stay volatile until ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · UpdatedVMA Song of the Year 2026
VMA Song of the Year 2026
Swim (BTS) 61%
Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley) 20%
Bring Your Love (Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter) 13%
Golden (Huntrix) 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 27, 2026
Swim (BTS)
61%
Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley)
20%
Bring Your Love (Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter)
13%
Golden (Huntrix)
5%
Man I Need (Olivia Dean)
4%
Stateside + Zara Larsson (PinkPantheress)
4%
Where Is My Husband! (Raye)
4%
Swim (BTS) 61%
Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley) 20%
Bring Your Love (Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter) 13%
Golden (Huntrix) 5%
NEW
NEW
Sep 27, 2026
Swim (BTS)
$441 Vol.
61%
Choosin' Texas (Ella Langley)
$184 Vol.
20%
Bring Your Love (Madonna and Sabrina Carpenter)
$238 Vol.
13%
Golden (Huntrix)
$1 Vol.
5%
Man I Need (Olivia Dean)
$1 Vol.
4%
Stateside + Zara Larsson (PinkPantheress)
$1 Vol.
4%
Where Is My Husband! (Raye)
$1 Vol.
4%
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed song that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year.
If a song was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated song whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.BTS’s “Swim” leads trader sentiment for VMA Song of the Year at a 61% implied probability, driven by the group’s unmatched global fan mobilization and sustained commercial momentum. The track, the lead single from the March 2026 album Arirang, debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, maintained strong streaming and radio presence, and earned dual nominations including Best K-Pop. Fan voting, which closes September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony in Los Angeles, historically favors acts with organized, high-volume supporter bases like ARMY. Lower odds for “Choosin’ Texas,” “Bring Your Love,” and the remaining nominees reflect comparatively lighter voting turnout despite solid chart or critical profiles. The market will likely stay volatile until ballots close.
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed song that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year.
If a song was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated song whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed song that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year.
If a song was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated song whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Market Opened: Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ET
Volume
$868End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed song that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year.
If a song was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated song whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.BTS’s “Swim” leads trader sentiment for VMA Song of the Year at a 61% implied probability, driven by the group’s unmatched global fan mobilization and sustained commercial momentum. The track, the lead single from the March 2026 album Arirang, debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, maintained strong streaming and radio presence, and earned dual nominations including Best K-Pop. Fan voting, which closes September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony in Los Angeles, historically favors acts with organized, high-volume supporter bases like ARMY. Lower odds for “Choosin’ Texas,” “Bring Your Love,” and the remaining nominees reflect comparatively lighter voting turnout despite solid chart or critical profiles. The market will likely stay volatile until ballots close.
The MTV Video Music Awards are presented annually by MTV to honor outstanding achievement in music videos. The 2026 MTV Video Music Awards are currently scheduled for September 27, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the listed song that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year.
If a song was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated song whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the listed song that wins the 2026 MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year.
If a song was not officially nominated for the MTV Video Music Award for Song of the Year when the 2026 nominees were announced, the corresponding market will immediately resolve to "No".
In case of a tie for the winner, this market will resolve in favor of the nominated song whose listed title comes first in alphabetical order.
If, for any reason, no winner is declared by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the MTV Video Music Awards and MTV, including data from their website (e.g., https://www.mtv.com/vma) and the live broadcast of the award ceremony; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Volume
$868End Date
Sep 28, 2026Market Opened
Sep 18, 2026, 5:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...BTS’s “Swim” leads trader sentiment for VMA Song of the Year at a 61% implied probability, driven by the group’s unmatched global fan mobilization and sustained commercial momentum. The track, the lead single from the March 2026 album Arirang, debuted at No. 1 on the Billboard Hot 100, maintained strong streaming and radio presence, and earned dual nominations including Best K-Pop. Fan voting, which closes September 25 ahead of the September 27 ceremony in Los Angeles, historically favors acts with organized, high-volume supporter bases like ARMY. Lower odds for “Choosin’ Texas,” “Bring Your Love,” and the remaining nominees reflect comparatively lighter voting turnout despite solid chart or critical profiles. The market will likely stay volatile until ballots close.
Experimental AI-generated summary referencing Polymarket data. This is not trading advice and plays no role in how this market resolves. · Updated
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