US military contingency planning for Cuba has intensified amid sustained economic sanctions, an effective oil embargo, and accusations that Havana enables adversaries, yet trader probabilities for a qualifying US strike by year-end remain low. An internal Army Reserve message reviewed in late September 2026 requested availability of logistics, engineering, medical, and military police units for Southern Command within 90-120 days, consistent with earlier briefings on options such as air assaults or targeted strikes. President Trump has repeatedly stated that military action is unlikely and that Washington and Havana will reach a deal to open the island economically, while continuing diplomatic and financial pressure. These developments, alongside competing global commitments and the absence of deployment orders or imminent triggers, shape the current market consensus.