Skip to main content

To trade in the US, go to polymarket.us

icon for U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday?

U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday?

icon for U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday?

U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday?

>99% chance
Polymarket

$287,210 Vol.

>99% chance
Polymarket

$287,210 Vol.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces board the "Bella 1" by January 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. government forces refers to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors. Board refers to U.S. forces physically boarding the Bella 1, including placing personnel on the vessel for inspection, enforcement, seizure, or operational control, regardless of whether the vessel is ultimately seized or diverted. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces board the "Bella 1" by January 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

U.S. government forces refers to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors.

Board refers to U.S. forces physically boarding the Bella 1, including placing personnel on the vessel for inspection, enforcement, seizure, or operational control, regardless of whether the vessel is ultimately seized or diverted.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces board the "Bella 1" by January 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. government forces refers to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors. Board refers to U.S. forces physically boarding the Bella 1, including placing personnel on the vessel for inspection, enforcement, seizure, or operational control, regardless of whether the vessel is ultimately seized or diverted. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$287,210
End Date
Jan 9, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 12:44 AM ET

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces board the "Bella 1" by January 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. government forces refers to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors. Board refers to U.S. forces physically boarding the Bella 1, including placing personnel on the vessel for inspection, enforcement, seizure, or operational control, regardless of whether the vessel is ultimately seized or diverted. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces board the "Bella 1" by January 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

U.S. government forces refers to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors.

Board refers to U.S. forces physically boarding the Bella 1, including placing personnel on the vessel for inspection, enforcement, seizure, or operational control, regardless of whether the vessel is ultimately seized or diverted.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if U.S. government forces board the "Bella 1" by January 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. U.S. government forces refers to any active U.S. military (including U.S. Coast Guard), law enforcement, or intelligence personnel or contractors. Board refers to U.S. forces physically boarding the Bella 1, including placing personnel on the vessel for inspection, enforcement, seizure, or operational control, regardless of whether the vessel is ultimately seized or diverted. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volume
$0
End Date
Jan 9, 2026
Market Opened
Jan 7, 2026, 12:44 AM ET

Outcome proposed: Yes

No dispute

Final outcome: Yes

Beware of external links.

Frequently Asked Questions

"U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday?" is a prediction market on Polymarket where traders buy and sell "Yes" or "No" shares based on whether they believe this event will happen. The current crowd-sourced probability is 100% for "Yes." For example, if "Yes" is priced at 100¢, the market collectively assigns a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday?" has generated $287.2K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 7, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday?," simply choose whether you believe the answer is "Yes" or "No." Each side has a current price that reflects the market's implied probability. Enter your amount and click "Trade." If you buy "Yes" shares and the outcome resolves as "Yes," each share pays out $1. If it resolves as "No," your "Yes" shares pay $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current probability for "U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday?" is 100% for "Yes." This means the Polymarket crowd currently believes there is a 100% chance that this event will occur. These odds update in real-time based on actual trades, providing a continuously updated signal of what the market expects to happen.

The resolution rules for "U.S. forces board Bella 1 by Friday?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.