Name: US debt ceiling hike by...?
Start: 2023-04-24T20:25:44.251Z
End: 2023-07-01T00:00:00Z

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This is a market group over when the US debt ceiling will be raised.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the current debt ceiling for the US federal government is raised or suspended between April 19 and July 1, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The debt ceiling for the US federal government herein refers to the limit set by Title 31 of the U.S. Code, § 3101. Raising this debt ceiling refers to legislation enacted creating a new debt limit greater than the legal limit in effect as of the creation of this market (4/20/2023). Suspending this debt ceiling refers to legislation enacted that suspends application of the debt limit found in Title 31 U.S. Code § 3101 for any length of time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. federal government (e.g. https://www.congress.gov/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

July 1

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the current debt ceiling for the US federal government is raised or suspended between May 16 and June 2, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The debt ceiling for the US federal government herein refers to the limit set by Title 31 of the U.S. Code, § 3101. Raising this debt ceiling refers to legislation enacted creating a new debt limit greater than the legal limit in effect as of the creation of this market (5/16/2023). Suspending this debt ceiling refers to legislation enacted that suspends application of the debt limit found in Title 31 U.S. Code § 3101 for any length of time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. federal government (e.g. https://www.congress.gov/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

June 2

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the current debt ceiling for the US federal government is raised or suspended between May 16 and June 3, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The debt ceiling for the US federal government herein refers to the limit set by Title 31 of the U.S. Code, § 3101. Raising this debt ceiling refers to legislation enacted creating a new debt limit greater than the legal limit in effect as of the creation of this market (5/16/2023). Suspending this debt ceiling refers to legislation enacted that suspends application of the debt limit found in Title 31 U.S. Code § 3101 for any length of time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. federal government (e.g. https://www.congress.gov/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

June 3

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the current debt ceiling for the US federal government is raised or suspended between May 29 and June 5, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The debt ceiling for the US federal government herein refers to the limit set by Title 31 of the U.S. Code, § 3101. Raising this debt ceiling refers to legislation enacted creating a new debt limit greater than the legal limit in effect as of the creation of this market (5/29/2023). Suspending this debt ceiling refers to legislation enacted that suspends application of the debt limit found in Title 31 U.S. Code § 3101 for any length of time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. federal government (e.g. https://www.congress.gov/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

June 5

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the current debt ceiling for the US federal government is raised or suspended between May 16 and June 1, 2023, 11:59:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The debt ceiling for the US federal government herein refers to the limit set by Title 31 of the U.S. Code, § 3101. Raising this debt ceiling refers to legislation enacted creating a new debt limit greater than the legal limit in effect as of the creation of this market (5/16/2023). Suspending this debt ceiling refers to legislation enacted that suspends application of the debt limit found in Title 31 U.S. Code § 3101 for any length of time.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the U.S. federal government (e.g. https://www.congress.gov/), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

June 1

US debt ceiling hike by...?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2025 and the Fed's December 2025 meeting, currently scheduled for December 9-10. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate changes information following its December meeting.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fed rate hike in 2025?

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).

This market will resolve according to the value of customs duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/)

If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. 

The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.

Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the there are exactly 3 cuts of 25 basis points by the Fed's December meeting (including any cuts made during Dec meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

This market may resolve to "Yes" immediately after the statement from the Fed's December 2025 meeting has been released if there has been exactly 3 rate cuts by then.

Note that cuts between 1-24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate cut.

For example, if the FED cuts rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 cuts (of 25 bps each). If there are 4 or more rate cuts at any point before this market's resolution date, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2025 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025?

The U.S. government collected $82.2b in customs duties in FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/files/reports-statements/financial-report/2024/notes-to-the-financial-statements19.pdf).

This market will resolve to "Yes"  if the value of costumes duties collected in FY 2025 according to the Financial Report of the United States Government published by the Treasury Department for FY 2025 (See: https://www.fiscal.treasury.gov/reports-statements/financial-report/) is greater than $250b. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". 

If the Treasury Department does not publish relevant data  for FY 2025 by February 28, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

The resolution source will be the Treasury Department.


Will tariffs generate >$250b in 2025?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDC marketcap is equal to or greater than 50% of USDT marketcap on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for each coin, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/usd-coin/historical_data#panel and https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page for both USDC and USDT.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31?

This market will immediately resolve to "Yes" if the USDT marketcap is equal to or greater than the value specified in the title on any day by December 31, 2025. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

This market will resolve based on CoinGecko's "historical data" section for USDT, currently available at https://www.coingecko.com/en/coins/tether/historical_data#panel respectively, specifically the daily "Market Cap" data.

The daily market cap data for any given date will be considered finalized once data for the following calendar day is published on CoinGecko’s “Historical Data” page.

This market will resolve based on the specified CoinGecko chart, not according to other sources or spot markets.

Will USDT market cap hit $200B by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate the federal tax exemption on interest from municipal bonds by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If the exemption is eliminated only for specific types or classes of municipal bonds (e.g., only newly issued bonds, only bonds from certain states or localities, or only bonds purchased after a certain date), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump remove municipal bond tax exemption in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if both of the following conditions prove true at any point in 2025:

1) The "US recession in 2025?" market resolves to "Yes" (https://polymarket.com/event/us-recession-in-2025).

2) The Consumer Price Index (CPI) increases by 5.0% or more over the 12 month period ending in any month between April 2025 and December 2025 according to the US Bureau of Labor Statistics (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current)

Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will not resolve until all relevant figures are reported for the period of time encompassing December 2025.

The resolution sources for this market will be the NBER, BEA (https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product), and BLS (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm#current), as well as the "US recession in 2025?" market on Polymarket.

US stagflation in 2025?

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.5% or lower before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the maximum individual tax rate below 37% at any point between January 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.



Will Trump cut taxes on high earners in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States federal government formally charges or announces a criminal indictment of Jerome Powell by December 31, 2025 ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market the District of Columbia and any county, municipality, or other subdivision of a State shall be included within the definition of a State.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from US governmental sources, however a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Jerome Powell federally charged in 2025?

On April 2, Donald Trump announced a 10% tariff on all imports set to take effect on April 5, 2025 at 12:01 a.m. EDT (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/04/fact-sheet-president-donald-j-trump-declares-national-emergency-to-increase-our-competitive-edge-protect-our-sovereignty-and-strengthen-our-national-and-economic-security/)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action which pauses, delays, or removes the 10% general tariff by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No”.

Actions which remove the general 10% tariff will qualify even if there are item specific exceptions for which the tariff still applies. However, lowering the general tariff below 10% without removing it will not qualify.

Any action which is officially enacted within the market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the removal goes into effect.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Will Trump remove 10% blanket tariff in 2025?

The next Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting is scheduled for December 9–10, 2025. The policy decision will be announced at 2:00 PM Eastern Time on December 10, followed by the Fed Chair’s press conference at around 2:30 PM ET.

This market will resolve according to both the number of dissenting votes recorded at the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee monetary policy meeting, specifically those dissenting on the Fed Funds Rate decision, and the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level prior to the meeting.

The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for December 9–10, 2025, according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

If the FOMC changes the upper bound of the target federal funds rate by an amount that is within 12.5 basis points of either “No change” or a “25bp cut,” the change will be rounded to the corresponding listed bracket (e.g., a 12.5-bp change is rounded to a 25-bp cut).

If any change is announced that is not listed, including any non-standard increment that cannot be rounded to a listed bracket under the rule above, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The level and change of the target federal funds rate are also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for the December meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No change” bracket.

This market will resolve to the combined outcome corresponding to both the rate decision (No change / 25bp cut / Other) and the number of dissents (≤2 / >2) as expressed in the displayed strike options.

Will the December 2025 FOMC decision result in a 25bp cut with >2 dissents?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Trump says Fuck, Fucking, or Fucked 
- House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution
- Trump declares another national emergency

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Panick+in+the+White+House.pdf

Panick in the White House

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that explicitly eliminates federal income taxes for individuals earning less than $150,000 per year in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income, occupation, or other criteria) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal of federal income tax for individuals earning under $150,000. Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g., he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Trump removes income tax on individuals making <$150k?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the budget is balanced for the 2025 fiscal year, i.e. if revenue minus spending is 0 or greater. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The resolution source will be the Federal Surplus/Deficit published by the U.S. Office of Management and Budget (OMB) here https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/FYFSD. 

 This market will resolve according to the first data release from the OMB - any further updates won't be considered.


US debt ceiling hike by...?

June 1
$234,312 Vol.
No

June 2
$88,831 Vol.
No

June 3
$6,033 Vol.
Yes

June 5
$59,207 Vol.
Yes

July 1
$108,836 Vol.
Yes

Market Context

US debt ceiling hike by...?

Rules

US debt ceiling hike by...?

Market Context

US debt ceiling hike by...?

About

Related

US debt ceiling hike by...?

June 1$234,312 Vol.Nocircle xmark

June 2$88,831 Vol.Nocircle xmark

June 3$6,033 Vol.Yescircle check

June 5$59,207 Vol.Yescircle check

July 1$108,836 Vol.Yescircle check

Market Context

US debt ceiling hike by...?

Rules

US debt ceiling hike by...?

Market Context

US debt ceiling hike by...?

About

Related

June 1
$234,312 Vol.
No

June 2
$88,831 Vol.
No

June 3
$6,033 Vol.
Yes

June 5
$59,207 Vol.
Yes

July 1
$108,836 Vol.
Yes