Recent UK GDP data showing 0.6% growth in Q1 2026 and a revised 0.5% in Q2, alongside IMF upgrades to 1.3% full-year expansion, underpin the 93% market-implied probability against recession. Independent forecasts average 1.2% growth, reflecting resilience in services and AI-related investment despite elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions. The Bank of England’s 3.75% policy rate and contained core inflation pressures further support positive output, consistent with trader consensus backed by capital at risk. Still, sharper BoE tightening, sustained oil prices above $100, or fiscal consolidation ahead of the October 28 budget could compress consumption and tip quarterly readings negative.