Recent positive UK GDP readings and broad forecaster consensus underpin the 93% market-implied odds against a 2026 recession. Official data show 0.6% growth in Q1 and a revised 0.5% in Q2, with full-year projections clustered between 1.0% and 1.4% from sources including the Bank of England, OBR, and private analysts. Elevated energy prices from Middle East developments have pushed CPI toward a 3.2–3.6% peak late in the year before easing, while the Bank Rate remains at 3.75% and unemployment hovers near 4.9–5.0%. These factors support continued modest expansion despite softer consumption and investment. Risks that could alter the outcome include sharper energy-driven inflation prompting tighter policy or deeper labor-market weakness eroding household spending.