Recent UK GDP data underscore resilience, with 0.6% quarterly growth in Q1 2026 and 0.4% in Q2, supporting consensus forecasts of 1.0–1.3% annual expansion from the OBR, IMF, and private analysts despite elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions. Inflation is projected to peak near 3.5–4% before easing toward the 2% target, while the Bank of England holds Bank Rate at 3.75% amid a loosening labor market with unemployment near 5%. These factors underpin the 91.5% market-implied odds against recession, reflecting positive output amid contained second-round effects. Escalation in geopolitical risks or sharper real-income erosion could still trigger contraction in late 2026.