Name: Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?
Start: 2024-02-29T23:10:00Z
End: 2024-03-05T00:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump performs worse in the Alabama Republican primary compared to all other states participating in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump's worst performance will be considered as either the smallest margin of victory if Trump wins all super Tuesday primaries, or largest margin of defeat if Trump loses one or more primaries.

‘Margin' is defined as the difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-highest vote-getter. Percentages of the votes received by each of the two candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia excluding American Samoa.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Alabama

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump performs worse in the Colorado Republican primary compared to all other states participating in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump's worst performance will be considered as either the smallest margin of victory if Trump wins all super Tuesday primaries, or largest margin of defeat if Trump loses one or more primaries.

‘Margin' is defined as the difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-highest vote-getter. Percentages of the votes received by each of the two candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia excluding American Samoa.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Colorado

Update: Per the rules, the margin for this market group is defined using votes for Trump and the next highest vote-getter: 
Trump / (# Trump + # Next highest) - # Next highest / (# Trump + # Next highest). The margin for this market group doesn’t take into consideration votes for other candidates.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump performs worse in the Alaska Republican primary compared to all other states participating in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump's worst performance will be considered as either the smallest margin of victory if Trump wins all super Tuesday primaries, or largest margin of defeat if Trump loses one or more primaries.

‘Margin' is defined as the difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-highest vote-getter. Percentages of the votes received by each of the two candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia excluding American Samoa.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Alaska

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump performs worse in the Arkansas Republican primary compared to all other states participating in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump's worst performance will be considered as either the smallest margin of victory if Trump wins all super Tuesday primaries, or largest margin of defeat if Trump loses one or more primaries.

‘Margin' is defined as the difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-highest vote-getter. Percentages of the votes received by each of the two candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia excluding American Samoa.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Arkansas

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump performs worse in the California Republican primary compared to all other states participating in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump's worst performance will be considered as either the smallest margin of victory if Trump wins all super Tuesday primaries, or largest margin of defeat if Trump loses one or more primaries.

‘Margin' is defined as the difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-highest vote-getter. Percentages of the votes received by each of the two candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia excluding American Samoa.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


California

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump performs worse in the Massachusetts Republican primary compared to all other states participating in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump's worst performance will be considered as either the smallest margin of victory if Trump wins all super Tuesday primaries, or largest margin of defeat if Trump loses one or more primaries.

‘Margin' is defined as the difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-highest vote-getter. Percentages of the votes received by each of the two candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia excluding American Samoa.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Massachusetts

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump performs worse in the North Carolina Republican primary compared to all other states participating in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump's worst performance will be considered as either the smallest margin of victory if Trump wins all super Tuesday primaries, or largest margin of defeat if Trump loses one or more primaries.

‘Margin' is defined as the difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-highest vote-getter. Percentages of the votes received by each of the two candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia excluding American Samoa.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


North Carolina

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump performs worse in the Maine Republican primary compared to all other states participating in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump's worst performance will be considered as either the smallest margin of victory if Trump wins all super Tuesday primaries, or largest margin of defeat if Trump loses one or more primaries.

‘Margin' is defined as the difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-highest vote-getter. Percentages of the votes received by each of the two candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia excluding American Samoa.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Maine

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump performs worse in the Minnesota Republican primary compared to all other states participating in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump's worst performance will be considered as either the smallest margin of victory if Trump wins all super Tuesday primaries, or largest margin of defeat if Trump loses one or more primaries.

‘Margin' is defined as the difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-highest vote-getter. Percentages of the votes received by each of the two candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia excluding American Samoa.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Minnesota

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump performs worse in the Oklahoma Republican primary compared to all other states participating in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump's worst performance will be considered as either the smallest margin of victory if Trump wins all super Tuesday primaries, or largest margin of defeat if Trump loses one or more primaries.

‘Margin' is defined as the difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-highest vote-getter. Percentages of the votes received by each of the two candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia excluding American Samoa.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Oklahoma

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump performs worse in the Texas Republican primary compared to all other states participating in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump's worst performance will be considered as either the smallest margin of victory if Trump wins all super Tuesday primaries, or largest margin of defeat if Trump loses one or more primaries.

‘Margin' is defined as the difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-highest vote-getter. Percentages of the votes received by each of the two candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia excluding American Samoa.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Texas

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump performs worse in the Tennessee Republican primary compared to all other states participating in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump's worst performance will be considered as either the smallest margin of victory if Trump wins all super Tuesday primaries, or largest margin of defeat if Trump loses one or more primaries.

‘Margin' is defined as the difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-highest vote-getter. Percentages of the votes received by each of the two candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia excluding American Samoa.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Tennessee

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump performs worse in the Virginia Republican primary compared to all other states participating in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump's worst performance will be considered as either the smallest margin of victory if Trump wins all super Tuesday primaries, or largest margin of defeat if Trump loses one or more primaries.

‘Margin' is defined as the difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-highest vote-getter. Percentages of the votes received by each of the two candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia excluding American Samoa.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Virginia

Update: Per the rules, the margin for this market group is defined using votes for Trump and votes for the next highest vote-getter: 
# Trump / (# Trump + # Next highest ) - # Next highest /  (# Trump + # Next highest). The margin for this market doesn’t take into consideration votes for other candidates. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump performs worse in the Vermont Republican primary compared to all other states participating in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump's worst performance will be considered as either the smallest margin of victory if Trump wins all super Tuesday primaries, or largest margin of defeat if Trump loses one or more primaries.

‘Margin' is defined as the difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-highest vote-getter. Percentages of the votes received by each of the two candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia excluding American Samoa.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Vermont

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump performs worse in the Utah Republican primary compared to all other states participating in the 2024 Super Tuesday Republican Primaries. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Trump's worst performance will be considered as either the smallest margin of victory if Trump wins all super Tuesday primaries, or largest margin of defeat if Trump loses one or more primaries.

‘Margin' is defined as the difference between the percentages of votes received by Donald J. Trump and the second-highest vote-getter. Percentages of the votes received by each of the two candidates will be determined by dividing the total number of votes each receives by the sum of all votes received by both candidates in the election.

The states participating in the Super Tuesday Republican Primaries are: Alabama, Alaska, Arkansas, California, Colorado, Maine, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, Vermont, and Virginia excluding American Samoa.

The resolution source for this market will be the announcement of the primary results from the participating state Republican parties. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Utah

Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse Andy Barr for KY-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US Senate is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the Senate for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US Senate as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US Senate for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular seat will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of one of a state's seats by the Republican Party followed by the gain of the other seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the Senate elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the US Senate for any state Trump won in 2024?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the House of Representatives for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US House of Representatives as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular district seats will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of a particular district's seat by the Republican Party followed by the gain of another district's seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the second-most votes in the first round of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to take place on March 3, 2026. 

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Ken Paxton come in 2nd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the third-most votes in the first round of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas, which is scheduled to take place on March 3, 2026. 

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Wesley Hunt come in 3rd in the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Texas. 

If no 2026 Texas Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.


Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.

If no 2026 Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Bryce Reeves be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-31 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will John Carter be the Republican nominee for TX-31?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from West Virginia.

If no 2026 West Virginia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the West Virginia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Shelley Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Virginia?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Benjamin Netanyahu personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

This includes calling Netanyahu weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, or using other derogatory language. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

Any public statement made by Trump qualifies.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump publicly disparage Netanyahu by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the TX-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Chip Roy be the Republican nominee for TX-21?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump makes any public statement by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, in which he insults, mocks, or attacks Nicholas J. Fuentes personally or professionally in a clearly negative manner. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This includes calling Nicholas J. Fuentes weak, stupid, disloyal, a failure, using an insulting nickname, using other derogatory language, or using the negative form of a positive trait in a derogatory personal way (e.g., “Nick isn’t smart”). Negative forms used in reference to Nicholas J. Fuentes’s professional actions, policies, or decisions (e.g., “Nick isn’t being smart about this policy”) will not count. Policy disagreements stated without disparaging language will not count.

A direct reference will qualify even if Nicholas J. Fuentes is not named, so long as it is reasonably clear from context that he is the subject.

Any written, verbal, or recorded public statement by Trump qualifies.

Will Trump disparage Nick Fuentes by December 31?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit Florida in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from South Carolina.

If no 2026 South Carolina Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the South Carolina Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Lindsey Graham be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Texas.

If no 2026 Texas Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Texas Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will James Talarico be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Texas?

This market will resolve according to the candidate Bernie Sanders announces that he will vote for or endorses for the listed election.

If Bernie Sanders does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Bernie Sanders or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Bernie Sanders' endorsement.

Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Florida.

If no 2026 Florida Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Florida Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Ashley B. Moody be the Republican nominee for Senate in Florida?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Rhode island.

If no 2026 Rhode Island Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Raymond McKay be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. 

Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public
- Trump out as President
- Trump impeached
- Any Trump cabinet member out

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Trump-Epstein+Parlay.pdf

Trump-Epstein Parlay

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Illinois.

If no 2026 Illinois Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Illinois Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Don Tracy be the Republican nominee for Senate in Illinois?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from New Hampshire.

If no 2026 New Hampshire Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Hampshire Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will John E. Sununu be the Republican nominee for Senate in New Hampshire?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Virginia.

If no 2026 Virginia Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Virginia Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Mark Warner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Virginia?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Colorado.

If no 2026 Colorado Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Colorado Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Janak Joshi be the Republican nominee for Senate in Colorado?

This market will resolve according to the election or referendum won by Democrats with the highest margin of victory compared to the other listed events, all scheduled for November 4, 2025:

- Virginia Governor election
- Virginia House of Delegates election
- New Jersey Governor election
- New York City Mayor election
- California referendum “Proposition 50”

If the results of any of these elections are not confirmed by July 31, 2026, this market will be resolved according to the results published thus far.

The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official election authority sources conducting the election.

Will the California Proposition 50 referendum have the largest Democratic margin of victory?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Idaho.

If no 2026 Idaho Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Idaho Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Jim Risch be the Republican nominee for Senate in Idaho?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Florida U.S. Senate election special election currently scheduled for November 3, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Florida Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the FL-19 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 18, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Madison Cawthorn be the Republican nominee for FL-19?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Texas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-01 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Matt Gress be the Republican nominee for AZ-01?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of New York, scheduled to take place on June 23, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 New York Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the New York Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Elise Stefanik win the 2026 New York Governor Republican primary election?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump or his administration takes a formal action or makes an official announcement directing the deployment of National Guard troops to the listed city by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, the market will resolve to “No.”
A qualifying announcement or action will count, regardless of if/when the deployment actually occurs, or if the deployment is delayed, suspended, or subsequently blocked by judicial or other actions.

Qualifying actions include but are not limited to:
- A Presidential action (e.g., Executive Order, Presidential Memorandum) that directs or announces National Guard deployment to the listed city.
- An official White House/DoD/National Guard Bureau press release, fact sheet, or order explicitly stating that National Guard troops will be deployed to the listed city.
- A Secretary of Defense or NGB directive/order that calls up or assigns National Guard forces to the listed city, including under Title 32 (state control with federal funding) or Title 10 (federalized).
- An official federal announcement that specific state Guard units (including the listed city National Guard or out-of-state Guard) are being sent to the listed city.

Non-qualifying actions include:
- Informal announcements/social media posts which do not constitute a formal policy announcement 
- Ambiguous remarks, “we’re considering it,” broad statements like “ready to go anywhere,” or contingent plans without a clear directive to the listed city.
- Generic posture changes (e.g., standing up quick-reaction forces “nationwide”) that do not explicitly name the listed city as a deployment location.
- A state-only activation by the listed city's state Governor without any official Trump administration action or announcement about sending the Guard to the listed city.

The primary resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Trump send the national guard to Los Angeles by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Alabama.

If no 2026 Alabama Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Alabama Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Virginia U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.

A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.

Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.

The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.

Will the Democrats win the Virginia Senate race in 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for Governor of Arizona, scheduled to take place on August 4, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off.

If no 2026 Arizona Gubernatorial Republican Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.”

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Arizona Republican Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Andy Biggs win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa.

If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Ashley Hinson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Mississippi.

If no 2026 Mississippi Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Mississippi Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Cindy Hyde-Smith be the Republican nominee for Senate from Mississippi?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-28 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Henry Cuellar be the Democratic nominee for TX-28?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from New Jersey.

If no 2026 New Jersey Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the New Jersey Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Cory Booker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in New Jersey?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Georgia.

If no 2026 Georgia Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Georgia Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Will Mike Collins be the Republican nominee for Senate in Georgia?

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Republican Party to contest the AZ-05 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Republican primary will take place on August 4, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican sources, including https://www.rnc.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

Will Mark Lamb be the Republican nominee for AZ-05?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for United States Senator from Michigan.

If no 2026 Michigan Democratic Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Michigan Democratic party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?

Vermont
$80,846 Vol.
Yes

Massachusetts
$39,535 Vol.
No

Utah
$37,808 Vol.
No

Virginia
$50,207 Vol.
No

Colorado
$36,557 Vol.
No

Arkansas
$37,689 Vol.
No

Alabama
$32,703 Vol.
No

Alaska
$43,230 Vol.
No

California
$25,923 Vol.
No

Maine
$20,733 Vol.
No

Minnesota
$26,400 Vol.
No

North Carolina
$46,909 Vol.
No

Oklahoma
$25,371 Vol.
No

Tennessee
$34,635 Vol.
No

Texas
$21,663 Vol.
No

Market Context

Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?

Rules

Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?

Market Context

Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?

About

Related

Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?

Vermont$80,846 Vol.Yescircle check

Massachusetts$39,535 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Utah$37,808 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Virginia$50,207 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Colorado$36,557 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Arkansas$37,689 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Alabama$32,703 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Alaska$43,230 Vol.Nocircle xmark

California$25,923 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Maine$20,733 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Minnesota$26,400 Vol.Nocircle xmark

North Carolina$46,909 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Oklahoma$25,371 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Tennessee$34,635 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Texas$21,663 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?

Rules

Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?

Market Context

Trump's worst state on Super Tuesday?

About

Related

Vermont
$80,846 Vol.
Yes

Massachusetts
$39,535 Vol.
No

Utah
$37,808 Vol.
No

Virginia
$50,207 Vol.
No

Colorado
$36,557 Vol.
No

Arkansas
$37,689 Vol.
No

Alabama
$32,703 Vol.
No

Alaska
$43,230 Vol.
No

California
$25,923 Vol.
No

Maine
$20,733 Vol.
No

Minnesota
$26,400 Vol.
No

North Carolina
$46,909 Vol.
No

Oklahoma
$25,371 Vol.
No

Tennessee
$34,635 Vol.
No

Texas
$21,663 Vol.
No