Name: Trump DC election interference trial date?
Start: 2024-02-15T18:08:00Z
End: 2024-10-31T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on the scheduled trial date for Donald Trump's election interference case in Washington D.C.

Trump's election interference trial was initially set to begin on March 4, but the judge postponed it with no new date set due to Trump's immunity appeals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the new start date for the trial for the election interference case against Trump (United States of America v. Donald J. Trump) is set to July 31, 11:59 PM ET or earlier. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

If the judge sets a trial date outside of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the next trial date set by the judge in this case. If the trial date is moved, it will have no effect on the outcome of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

July or earlier

Trump's election interference trial was initially set to begin on March 4, but the judge postponed it with no new date set due to Trump's immunity appeals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the new start date for the trial for the election interference case against Trump (United States of America v. Donald J. Trump) is set between August 1 and August 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

If the judge sets a trial date outside of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the next trial date set by the judge in this case. If the trial date is moved, it will have no effect on the outcome of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

August

Trump's election interference trial was initially set to begin on March 4, but the judge postponed it with no new date set due to Trump's immunity appeals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the new start date for the trial for the election interference case against Trump (United States of America v. Donald J. Trump) is set between September 1 and October 31, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

If the judge sets a trial date outside of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the next trial date set by the judge in this case. If the trial date is moved, it will have no effect on the outcome of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

September/October

Trump's election interference trial was initially set to begin on March 4, but the judge postponed it with no new date set due to Trump's immunity appeals.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the new start date for the trial for the election interference case against Trump (United States of America v. Donald J. Trump) is set to November 2024 or later. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No."

If the judge sets a trial date outside of this market's timeframe, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the next trial date set by the judge in this case. If the trial date is moved, it will have no effect on the outcome of this market.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

November or later

Trump DC election interference trial date?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially invokes the Insurrection Act of 1807 by December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, "invoke" means that the President formally announces the use of the Insurrection Act as legal authority for deploying active-duty U.S. military forces or federalizing the National Guard in response to civil disorder, insurrection, or rebellion.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Trump invokes the Insurrection Act by December 31?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse John Cornyn for TX-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between December 16, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Keonne Rodriguez before 2027?

Donald Trump is set to make an appearance at the 48th Annual Kennedy Center Honors, which is scheduled to air on December 23, 2025 (https://www.npr.org/2025/12/05/nx-s1-5607173/kennedy-center-honors-trump).

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump says the listed term during his appearance at the specified event. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "No".

Pluralization/possessive of the listed term will count toward the resolution of this market.

Instances where the term is used in a compound word will count regardless of context (e.g. joyful is not a compound word for "joy," however "killjoy" is a compounding of the words "kill" and "joy").

If this market requires a specified number of mentions of a person’s first or last name, a full-name mention will count as one mention (e.g., if a market is about “Joe / Biden 5+ times,” a mention of “Joe Biden” will count once).

AI-generated audio or video will not count toward this market's resolution.

This market is explicitly about Donald Trump's scheduled appearance at the Kennedy Center Honors event on December 7, 2025. Speeches, events, or comments that occur outside of the named, scheduled event will not qualify toward this market's resolution. If the event contains a Q&A, it will count toward the resolution of this market.

If this event is definitively cancelled, or otherwise is not aired by December 23, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be video of the events. Only remarks which are broadcast or streamed live will count toward this market's resolution.

Will Trump say "Trump" at the Kennedy Center Honors event?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump DC election interference trial date?

July or earlier
$21,852 Vol.
No

August
$26,790 Vol.
No

September/October
$111,271 Vol.
No

November or later
$2,039,240 Vol.
Yes

Market Context

Trump DC election interference trial date?

Rules

Trump DC election interference trial date?

Market Context

Trump DC election interference trial date?

About

Related

Trump DC election interference trial date?

July or earlier$21,852 Vol.Nocircle xmark

August$26,790 Vol.Nocircle xmark

September/October$111,271 Vol.Nocircle xmark

November or later$2,039,240 Vol.Yescircle check

Market Context

Trump DC election interference trial date?

Rules

Trump DC election interference trial date?

Market Context

Trump DC election interference trial date?

About

Related

July or earlier
$21,852 Vol.
No

August
$26,790 Vol.
No

September/October
$111,271 Vol.
No

November or later
$2,039,240 Vol.
Yes