Name: Who will be part of Trump's Administration?
Start: 2024-11-06T16:15:08.429545Z
End: 2025-03-31T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on who will be in the Trump White House.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Elon Musk to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Elon Musk

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Mike Pompeo to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Mike Pompeo

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

RFK Jr.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Ron Paul to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ron Paul

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Steve Bannon to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Steve Bannon

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Vivek Ramaswamy to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Vivek Ramaswamy

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Donald Trump Jr. to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Donald Trump Jr.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Doug Burgum to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Doug Burgum

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Jared Kushner to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jared Kushner

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints David Sacks to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

David Sacks

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Jamie Dimon to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Jamie Dimon

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Marco Rubio to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Marco Rubio

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Betsy DeVos to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Betsy DeVos

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Kari Lake to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Kari Lake

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Matt Gaetz to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Matt Gaetz

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Sarah Palin to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sarah Palin

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Ron DeSantis to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ron DeSantis

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Nikki Haley to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Nikki Haley

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Ivanka Trump to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ivanka Trump

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Ben Carson to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ben Carson

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Bernie Sanders to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Bernie Sanders

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Ken Paxton to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Ken Paxton

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Trump wins the 2024 election and officially nominates or appoints Tulsi Gabbard  to his administration by March 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will immediately resolve to "No" if Donald Trump loses the 2024 US Presidential Election.

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Tulsi Gabbard 

Who will be part of Trump's Administration?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Eric Adams to his administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Eric Adams join Trump administration by December 31?

This market will resolve according to the next listed individual that it is announced will leave the Trump Cabinet, or otherwise ceases to be a member of administration.

If none of the listed individuals leave between December 5, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “None before 2027”.

An announcement of the listed individual's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect.

If multiple individuals announce departures or are removed at the same time, the market will resolve to the individual who actually leaves office first. If they leave simultaneously, the market will resolve to the individual whose last name is alphabetically first.

For the purposes of this market, the Cabinet includes Vice President, the heads of the 15 executive departments, as well as the Administrator of the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA), the President’s Chief of Staff, the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the Director of the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), the Director of the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), the United States Trade Representative (USTR), the Ambassador to the United Nations, the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), and the Administrator of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Acting officials serving in these roles are not included. The Director of the Office of Science and Technology Policy (OSTP) is not considered Cabinet-level under the current Trump administration and is excluded from this market.
A listed individual will be considered to have left the Cabinet if they resign from or are removed from any Cabinet-level position, even if they are subsequently appointed to a different Cabinet-level role.
If a candidate assumes a listed cabinet position they will be added to the market. However, candidates who have merely been nominated for a cabinet position will not be considered, even if their nomination is rejected or withdrawn. 

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Pete Hegseth be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?

This market will resolve according to the next person Donald Trump appoints to the National Security Advisor position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve based on Trump's first announcement - if Trump announces another person to this position first, this market will immediately resolve to "No".

This market refers to the first permanent National Security Advisor following Mike Waltz's departure from the role; any acting advisor or otherwise temporary advisor will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Michael Flynn be next National Security Advisor?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump officially nominates or appoints Laura Loomer to his administration by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The Trump administration includes individuals formally appointed or nominated by Donald Trump to roles within the U.S. federal government, such as Cabinet members, Executive Office staff, senior policy advisors, ambassadors, or White House staff whose appointments are publicly announced by official government channels.

Nominations will qualify even if the individual is not confirmed.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Laura Loomer join Trump administration by December 31?

This market will resolve based on whether Donald Trump announces that he will vote for or endorse the listed candidate in the election named in the title.

If Donald Trump does not announce an endorsement by the day before the scheduled election at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Donald Trump or one of his representatives, or a consensus of credible reporting of Donald Trump's endorsement.

Will Trump endorse Andy Barr for KY-Sen by Nov 2 2026 ET?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one cabinet-level Donald Trump appointee from his second term leaves their position by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Voluntary resignations, removals, retirements, or departures for any reason will count.

Announcements alone will not qualify toward this market's resolution. An individual must actually have left their cabinet-level position.

Temporary or acting officials will not count toward this market's resolution.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump cabinet member out in 2025?

Trump's Treasury Secretary pick Scott Bessent has floated the idea of Trump naming a successor to Jerome Powell to serve as a "shadow chair", prior to the end of Powell's term, scheduled for May 2026. (see: https://www.nbcwashington.com/news/business/money-report/fed-chair-jerome-powell-can-serve-remainder-of-term-says-trumps-treasury-pick-bessent/3788991/).

This market will resolve to according the individual Donald Trump announces as his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair. If Donald Trump does not announce his pick for the next Federal Reserve Chair by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No announcement by December 31".  

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump refrain from announcing a next Fed Chair in 2025?

This market will resolve according to the next individual Donald Trump, as President of the United States, formally nominates to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. 

Formal nominations are defined as the submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

Acting or interim appointments will not count unless the individual is formally nominated to be Chair of the Federal Reserve by submission of a nomination message to the U.S. Senate.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Senate (see: https://www.senate.gov/legislative/nominations_new.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if all of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Trump says Fuck, Fucking, or Fucked 
- House passes Epstein disclosure bill/resolution
- Trump declares another national emergency

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.

The full rules for this market can be found here: 
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Panick+in+the+White+House.pdf

Panick in the White House

Donald Trump recently announced he was firing Lisa D. Cook from her position on the Federal Reserve Board of Governors: https://apnews.com/article/federal-reserve-lisa-cook-trump-6fca3d2fbb54ba204cc91398e6a7b020

This market will resolve to according the next individual Donald Trump nominates or announces as a nominee to become a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors between August 26, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. If Donald Trump does not announce nominee for Fed Governor within this market's timeframe, it will resolve to "No announcement by December 31".

This market will resolve based on the first individual trump nominates within the established timeframe.

The announcement of a specific nominee will qualify toward a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether that individual is later officially nominated.

The resolution source for this market will be official information form Donald Trump or one of his official representatives, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump make no announcement by December 31 to replace Lisa Cook?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Joe Biden, Jill Biden, Beau Biden, Hunter Biden, Ashley Biden, James "Jim" Biden, Sara Biden, Valerie Biden Owens, John Owens or Francis "Frank" Biden serve any time in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between March 17 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Trump jail Biden family member?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any individual is formally charged or criminally indicted for insider trading related to a tariff policy announcement made during the second Trump administration between July 11 and December 31, 2025, at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from relevant governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will anyone be charged for insider trading Trump tariff announcements?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if any of the following conditions are met by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Evidence Trump went to Epstein's Island made public
- Trump out as President
- Trump impeached
- Any Trump cabinet member out

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/Trump-Epstein+Parlay.pdf

Trump-Epstein Parlay

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

If it becomes impossible for Donald Trump to resign or to announce his resignation (e.g., due to his removal from office by other means, etc.), this market will immediately resolve to "No."

For this market to resolve to "Yes," it is only necessary that Trump announce that he has resigned or will resign. Whether he actually resigns will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits the listed state between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial territory of the listed state. Whether or not Trump enters the state’s airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from the government of the United States of America, official information from Trump, or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g., https://twitter.com/POTUS); however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Donald Trump visit Florida in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that explicitly eliminates federal income taxes for individuals earning less than $150,000 per year in the United States by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Legislation which includes specific exceptions where federal income tax remains applicable for specified groups (whether by income, occupation, or other criteria) will still qualify, as long as the primary outcome of the law is the removal of federal income tax for individuals earning under $150,000. Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect. If it becomes impossible for Trump to sign legislation/perform executive actions (e.g., he resigns), this market will resolve to "No".

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.

Trump removes income tax on individuals making <$150k?

If U.S. President Donald Trump visits China by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Trump physically entering the terrestrial or maritime territory of the listed country. Whether or not Trump enters the country's airspace during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution.

The primary resolution source for this information will be official information from government of the United States of America, official information from Trump or released by his verified social media accounts (e.g. https://twitter.com/POTUS), however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump visit China by April 30?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump between November 17, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Eric Adams before 2027?

The 2026 midterm elections for the US House of Representatives is scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Republicans hold fewer seats in the House of Representatives for any state that Trump won in the 2024 US presidential election as a result of the 2026 midterm elections. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". 

Initial seat counts will be based on the composition of the US House of Representatives as of November 2, 2026, 11:59PM ET.

This market's resolution will be solely based on the number of seats held by the Republican Party in the US House of Representatives for any state won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election. The loss of particular district seats will not count towards a resolution for this market; only the total number of seats held by the Republican Party in a given state will be considered. (e.g. The loss of a particular district's seat by the Republican Party followed by the gain of another district's seat would not be sufficient to resolve this market to "Yes".)

​​A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.

For the purposes of this market, states won by Trump in the 2024 Presidential election include Alabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, North Carolina, North Dakota, Ohio, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Tennessee, Texas, Utah, West Virginia, Wisconsin, and Wyoming. This list is determined by the winner of the electoral votes for each state in the 2024 Presidential election. In states such as Maine and Nebraska, where electoral votes are allocated separately by congressional districts as well as to the statewide winner, only the electoral votes allocated to the statewide winner are considered.

This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).

Will Republicans lose a seat in the House of Representatives in any state Trump won in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed individual receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve from Donald Trump by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for whether the individual is pardoned or not will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump pardon Roger Stone in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if President Donald Trump announces that he is running for a third term as US President by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Trump must definitively state his intent to run (e.g., "I am running for a third term" or equivalent unambiguous language); vague comments, speculative or contingent remarks or jokes will not suffice. 

Past statements such his March 30 NBC phone interview where he stated "There are methods which you could do it, as you know... A lot of people want me to do it." or his November 13, 2024, where he stated "I suspect I won’t be running again unless you say, ‘He’s so good we’ve got to figure something else out.’" would NOT qualify. 

The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements by Donald Trump (ex: via speech, social media, etc.), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Trump announce run for 3rd term?

This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives by simple majority vote to approve or pass one or more articles of impeachment of President Donald Trump, between July 24, 2025, and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will be used.

Trump impeached by end of 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any federal jurisdiction of the United States and/or the District of Columbia formally charges or otherwise announces a criminal indictment of any former member(s) of the House Select Committee to Investigate the January 6th Attack on the U.S. Capitol by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET.

This includes the following individuals: Bennie Thompson, Liz Cheney, Zoe Lofgren, Adam Schiff, Pete Aguilar, Stephanie Murphy, Jamie Raskin, Elaine Luria, Adam Kinzinger

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from U.S. governmental sources; however, a wide consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump charges Member of January 6 committee? 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration publicly releases any files pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein, which weren’t previously public by the listed date  (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying file must contain substantive information pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein. 

The following will qualify: 
-Previously released documents in which redactions containing new substantive content such as names of associates or practices directly pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein were removed. 
-Documents that weren’t previously public and contain information pertaining to  the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein, even if that information was already known from previous releases (e.g. a previously unreleased document pertaining to the illegal activities of Jeffrey Epstein which mentions Ghislaine Maxwell will qualify even if the information itself isn’t novel) 

The following will not qualify:
-Trivial metadata-only releases, duplicative redactions, or administrative cover sheets without substantive content.
-Files which were created after the start of the Trump Administration (January 20, 2025, 12:00 PM ET).
-Announcements of declassifications or releases that are not implemented within this market's timeframe.
-Releases made exclusively by federal courts (including unsealings), Congress or its committees, state or local governments, private entities, or leaks not officially attributable to the Executive Branch.
-Releases made by non-Executive entities, even if based on Executive Branch filings or requests.
-Court-ordered FOIA disclosures or FOIA litigation records provided by a court.
-Leaked, unofficial, or anonymously sourced disclosures will not qualify 

For a release to qualify, the Executive Branch must itself publish the files to the public, such as through an official website, public press release, or FOIA reading room. Transmissions to Congress, courts, or other non-Executive entities do not qualify unless the Executive Branch subsequently makes the files publicly accessible.

FOIA responses qualify only if the Executive Branch agency itself publicly releases the responsive files. FOIA disclosures published by courts as part of litigation do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald J. Trump, as President of the United States, signs into law a bill that lowers the maximum individual tax rate below 37% at any point between January 19 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

Note that the cut does not need to go into effect before the resolution date - it just needs to be signed into law by then.

This market's primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration, however a consensus of credible information will also be used.



Will Trump cut taxes on high earners in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation or performs any executive action that lowers, pauses, delays, or removes any tariffs on imports from Mexico by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

Actions that lower, pause, delay, or remove any tariffs on Mexican imports will qualify, including changes to the reciprocal tariff, or any other existing or new tariffs specifically targeting Mexican goods.

Only the removal of tariffs specifically targeting Mexico will qualify. For example, the removal of the 10% general tariff on all imports into the U.S., or a tariff on specific Mexican provinces or entities, will not count toward this market’s resolution.

Item-specific tariff exemptions, such as those outlined in the U.S. Customs and Border Protection notice dated April 11, 2025, which excluded 25 HTSUS codes covering electronics, will not qualify.

Any action officially enacted within the market’s time frame will qualify, regardless of when the change goes into effect.

This market’s primary resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration; however, a consensus of credible information from major news outlets or government statements will also be used.

Will Trump lower tariffs on Mexico by December 31?

On September 1, 2025, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the Trump administration may declare a national housing emergency this fall to address high housing costs.(see: https://www.reuters.com/world/us/bessent-says-trump-administration-will-tackle-high-housing-costs-with-new-2025-09-01/)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act (NEA) primarily addressing housing by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A national emergency must actually be declared for this market to resolve to "Yes" - it will not be enough for Trump to announce an intention to declare a national emergency.

This market's resolution source will be official information from the Trump administration.

Who will be part of Trump's Administration?

Elon Musk
$1,850,597 Vol.
Yes

Kari Lake
$252,889 Vol.
Yes

David Sacks
$581,582 Vol.
Yes

Ben Carson
$93,285 Vol.
No

RFK Jr.
$498,206 Vol.
Yes

Ron Paul
$243,223 Vol.
No

Steve Bannon
$58,494 Vol.
No

Vivek Ramaswamy
$334,043 Vol.
No

Donald Trump Jr.
$201,472 Vol.
No

Doug Burgum
$64,208 Vol.
Yes

Mike Pompeo
$759,620 Vol.
No

Jared Kushner
$140,699 Vol.
No

Jamie Dimon
$44,081 Vol.
No

Marco Rubio
$390,530 Vol.
Yes

Ron DeSantis
$74,183 Vol.
No

Nikki Haley
$448,842 Vol.
No

Ivanka Trump
$293,923 Vol.
No

Ken Paxton
$41,216 Vol.
No

Tulsi Gabbard
$295,987 Vol.
Yes

Betsy DeVos
$26,172 Vol.
No

Sarah Palin
$16,574 Vol.
No

Matt Gaetz
$51,055 Vol.
No

Bernie Sanders
$921,324 Vol.
No

Market Context

Who will be part of Trump's Administration?

Rules

Who will be part of Trump's Administration?

Market Context

Who will be part of Trump's Administration?

About

Related

Who will be part of Trump's Administration?

Elon Musk$1,850,597 Vol.Yescircle check

Kari Lake$252,889 Vol.Yescircle check

David Sacks$581,582 Vol.Yescircle check

Ben Carson$93,285 Vol.Nocircle xmark

RFK Jr.$498,206 Vol.Yescircle check

Ron Paul$243,223 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Steve Bannon$58,494 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Vivek Ramaswamy$334,043 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Donald Trump Jr.$201,472 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Doug Burgum$64,208 Vol.Yescircle check

Mike Pompeo$759,620 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Jared Kushner$140,699 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Jamie Dimon$44,081 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Marco Rubio$390,530 Vol.Yescircle check

Ron DeSantis$74,183 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Nikki Haley$448,842 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Ivanka Trump$293,923 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Ken Paxton$41,216 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Tulsi Gabbard $295,987 Vol.Yescircle check

Betsy DeVos$26,172 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Sarah Palin$16,574 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Matt Gaetz$51,055 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Bernie Sanders$921,324 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

Who will be part of Trump's Administration?

Rules

Who will be part of Trump's Administration?

Market Context

Who will be part of Trump's Administration?

About

Related

Elon Musk
$1,850,597 Vol.
Yes

Kari Lake
$252,889 Vol.
Yes

David Sacks
$581,582 Vol.
Yes

Ben Carson
$93,285 Vol.
No

RFK Jr.
$498,206 Vol.
Yes

Ron Paul
$243,223 Vol.
No

Steve Bannon
$58,494 Vol.
No

Vivek Ramaswamy
$334,043 Vol.
No

Donald Trump Jr.
$201,472 Vol.
No

Doug Burgum
$64,208 Vol.
Yes

Mike Pompeo
$759,620 Vol.
No

Jared Kushner
$140,699 Vol.
No

Jamie Dimon
$44,081 Vol.
No

Marco Rubio
$390,530 Vol.
Yes

Ron DeSantis
$74,183 Vol.
No

Nikki Haley
$448,842 Vol.
No

Ivanka Trump
$293,923 Vol.
No

Ken Paxton
$41,216 Vol.
No

Tulsi Gabbard
$295,987 Vol.
Yes

Betsy DeVos
$26,172 Vol.
No

Sarah Palin
$16,574 Vol.
No

Matt Gaetz
$51,055 Vol.
No

Bernie Sanders
$921,324 Vol.
No