Trudeau resigns before February?
$654,309 Vol.
Jan 31, 2025
Source: Polymarket.com
Rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Trudeau announces he is resigning as Prime Minister of Canada or otherwise ceases to be Prime Minister of Canada for any length of time between December 16, 2024 and January 31, 2025 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
If Justin Trudeau announces he is resigning but remains in office to a point outside this market's timeframe, the announcement will still qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Justin Trudeau or the government of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
If Justin Trudeau announces he is resigning but remains in office to a point outside this market's timeframe, the announcement will still qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Justin Trudeau or the government of Canada, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.
Volume
$654,309
End Date
Jan 31, 2025
Resolver
0x6A9D222616...Outcome proposed: Yes
No dispute
Final outcome: Yes
Comments (181)
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JesseAndhe
2mo ago
market will resolve to yes if the sun comes up tmrw or a crow sings a Shakespeare play in the ear of a elephant with exceptional hearing. fcking ridiculous rules here. he never resigned, he said hes thinking of resigning
epicRNG
2mo ago
instead of writing "but" in the rules, create a new market for the exception you're thinking of. If you can create new markets from the rules then those rules should not be included. Create a new market instead of adding exceptions to the main spirit of the market.
epicRNG
2mo ago
I just want better rules with less "but"s in the rules.
heuer
2mo ago
lo siento, you have to remember every market resolution has the potential to be quite subjective, open to group interpretation, then finally UMA collusion just look at the current morning headlines... CBC: Trudeau to resign as prime minister after Liberal leadership race BBC: Justin Trudeau resigns as Canadian prime minister - live updates the Guardian: Canadian prime minister announces plan to resign - live which version do you objectively choose? does it depend on the interpretation of the writer/editor? or the view of cross-section of the polled populace? or does it depend on what you imagined, interpreted, envisioned when you bought your shares? or what you wish to interpret?
Slowroasted
2mo ago
epicRNG
2mo ago
"resigns" in the title and "resigning" in the rules are not in line with each other, not compatible. Who's writing these rules? You keep creating new markets in the rules and it's disgusting to me and others showing clear warranted disapproval in the comments. Keep the wording from the title in rules, keep the same tense in the rules.
epicRNG
2mo ago
You can't be writing rules which are not in line with the main spirit of the title of the market. If you can create new market out of the rules you're writing then those rules should not be included and instead create the new market.
epicRNG
2mo ago
i'm disgusted by the short dispute windows and the premature resolutions and the incorrect resolutions
Jonpizza
2mo ago
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Trudeau announces he is resigning as Prime Minister of Canada
enterprise1701
2mo ago
How could you possibly dispute this outcome? Lmao.
JesseAndhe
2mo ago
he didnt say he is resigning...he says he intends to resign ...some time in the future..
Slowroasted
2mo ago
that's him announcing he is resigning lmao
Jonpizza
2mo ago
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Justin Trudeau announces he is resigning as Prime Minister of Canada lol
Justifax
2mo ago
The thing about headlines is everyone is familiar with them and they are very impactful. Predicting them is very very relevant and they are like mention markets. Zero disputes!
Justifax
2mo ago
We'll never know how poly would have clarified if JT didn't resign pm, but if this market was resolved on headlines + gpt o1, we would be able to ask o1 about how it might resolve. Seriously people can we stop this shit
Funkymonkey123
2mo ago
Why we lost the bet
porktato
2mo ago
read the rules : If Justin Trudeau announces he is resigning but remains in office to a point outside this market's timeframe, the announcement will still qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution.
Funkymonkey123
2mo ago
Wtf not in feb… but match
Insidescoop
2mo ago
Well at least it ended with no dispute :D
Insidescoop
2mo ago
Why he did mention prime minister I do not know. But at least he knew that its 2 separate positions, not like some of YES man
endo2
2mo ago
yeah. If he said I'm quitting as PL but will resume my duties as PM until elections or whatevs we would have a interesting days involving UMA ahead
Justifax
2mo ago
Thank you JT for saving me from an aneurism arguing some market on Poly. At least you did something right.
endo2
2mo ago
Trudeau says he intends to resign as party leader and as prime minister after the party selects its next leader.
Justifax
2mo ago
In theory and it has happened in the past, the PM has let the GG give the other party a shot at being PM. This would be resigning PM but not Party Leader. In this case, this market would got YES and that market would go NO. But there is no scenario where JT can quit party leadership and stay as PM as he would no longer have the confidence of his caucus which is required in canada to govern.
Justifax
2mo ago
So there is a way to resign as PM and stay as Party Leader. There is no way to resign as Party Leader and stay as PM.
endo2
2mo ago
CBC and CTV News are reporting that Trudeau met Canada's governor general this morning and asked her to prorogue parliament - essentially a suspension that would stop all proceedings, including debates and votes, without dissolving parliament - until 24 March. This move would give the party time to find a new leader. While a routine part of parliamentary procedure, it is sometimes used by governments to buy time during a political crisis. Canada's parliament is currently on holiday break until 27 January.
Justifax
2mo ago
Anyways, I took a $500 loss in order to argue this without bags. I have no conflict of interest.
Malganis
2mo ago
If Justin Trudeau announces he is resigning but remains in office to a point outside this market's timeframe, the announcement will still qualify for an immediate "Yes" resolution.
Justifax
2mo ago
Well, JT could hand it over to Polliviere but hell has yet to freeze over.
Justifax
2mo ago
So the only way for JT to resign from PM is when his party picks his replacement. Which is what is happening right now
Justifax
2mo ago
The Governor General 'appoints' the PM. This is either as a result of a general election, giving it to the party with the most seats. Or, JT can 'suggest' an alternative, but he has to suggest someone that has the confidence of his caucus. He can't suggest a rando, the GG would never and should never go for that.
Justifax
2mo ago
In the french system, at this point the President would take over and appoint an interm PM. In Canada, they don't have that, they have the governor general who works at the behest of the PM, though has some theoretical power if the PM wigs out.
Justifax
2mo ago
JT resigned PM and is now staying on until his party picks his replacement. Exactly as the rules intended. If it was anything else, this market would have been at 5%
TPTPTPTPTPTPTPTP...
2mo ago
resigning as "party leader" is not an announcement of resigning as prime minister, just so you all know
Justifax
2mo ago
If JT had resigned on the spot, his party still would have had to chose the interim leader. JT can't go to the governor general and say "appoint this rando"
Justifax
2mo ago
But the rules specifically allow JT to stay in power while his party picks his replacement
Justifax
2mo ago
And 'interim leaders' are not a thing in Canada since parties and conventions were made formalized around 1920 or so
Justifax
2mo ago
In Canada and other westminster systems. they vote for MPs and not for the prime minister. This is why party leader is so important, because they have the confidence of their caucus. Once JT no longer is party leader he by definition doesn't have confidence of the parliament and is out as PM.
Car
2mo ago
Domer stop selling your Y
Justifax
2mo ago
JT is resigning from PM but needs to get his party to chose a new leader because he cant just leave PM vacant.
peasant
2mo ago
From the Guardian (and every single other source…) “ On Sunday evening, the Globe and Mail newspaper cited three sources saying that Trudeau would quit as head of the ruling Liberal party, which in turn would bring to an end his nine years as prime minister at some point later this year. The 53-year-old became party leader in 2013 and has been prime minister since November 2015.”
Insidescoop
2mo ago
Nobody here is gaming anything. I was prob. The first to buy "no" 3 weeks ago. People need to learn how to pay attention to market rules
Insidescoop
2mo ago
And there is no point to wait until february after this announcement also. Its won when he steps down as party leader
endo2
2mo ago
Since there is a different market for him resigning as party leader. And rummors he might resign as prime mininister (and supposedly asked Dominic LeBlanc to take over). If he just resigns only as party leader and not prime minister then this is a clear No. It’s not that hard.
Yannlagaf
2mo ago
the market is clear. as PM of Canada. the rest doesn't matter
peasant
2mo ago
For those uneducated about these cold subjects of the crown, read this and make some weird argument about how this resignation isn’t a PM resignation. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-01-06/canada-s-trudeau-is-likely-to-resign-this-week-globe-reports
Justifax
2mo ago
If this market didn't let JT stay on as PM, then it would have been at 5%
Justifax
2mo ago
Lowlife piece of shit scammers are just coming late into the market buying cheap and trying to scam it. JT is resigning PM and staying on until the new party leader is chosen.
Kafjkafjan
2mo ago
muse be retired
Outcome: Yes