Recent polling averages place the PSOE consistently second behind the PP in seat and vote projections for the November 29 election, with the socialists at roughly 26-27% and the PP at 30-31%. Vox trails further at around 19% despite gains since 2023, while smaller parties including Sumar/Frente Amplio and regional groups remain well behind. A late-October train accident in Urda halted PSOE momentum in the final weeks of the campaign, reinforcing the two-party ordering in updated surveys. Trader consensus on PSOE for second place reflects this stable gap, with limited volatility expected before election day absent major shifts in turnout or late alliances.