Name: OpenSea blocks US users in 2024?
Start: 2024-08-29T16:45:11.093628Z
End: 2024-12-31T12:00:00Z

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenSea (https://opensea.io/) geoblocks users from the United States of America from trading NFTs between August 28 and December 31, 2024, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If USA users are still allowed to sell or close out already-held NFTs, it will still count as a block, so long as they are blocked from purchasing new ones.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from OpenSea, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

OpenSea blocks US users in 2024?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Solana in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Solana does not count as holding Solana reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national Solana reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government sells any of its Bitcoin by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US government and on-chain data, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US Government sell Bitcoin by December 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, sports event contracts listed by a CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM), whether accessed directly or through a Futures Commission Merchant (FCM), are legally prohibited or blocked for users in at least one U.S. state or nationwide. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

A qualifying ban must have gone into effect during the market window and may occur through any of the following:

CFTC Action: A final order, rule, or directive under Regulation 40.11 or other CFTC authority that results in the removal or suspension of sports event contracts, either nationally or within one or more states.

Court Order or Judgment: A temporary restraining order, preliminary injunction, permanent injunction, or final judgment issued by a U.S. federal or state court that has the effect of suspending or terminating user access to sports event contracts in one or more states or nationwide. This includes situations where a court denies an exchange’s claim of federal preemption and thereby allows a state to enforce its gambling laws against sports event contracts while adjudication is pending, leading to blocked access in that state.

State Enforcement Upheld by Courts: If a state action (such as a cease-and-desist order or regulatory enforcement) is challenged on preemption grounds and the court declines to enjoin the state, resulting in blocked access to sports event contracts in that state, this will qualify.

To resolve “Yes,” the block or ban must actually take effect (users lose access or ability to trade/maintain positions). Mere announcements, proposed rules, or pending litigation without effect do not qualify.

Voluntary pauses or withdrawals by a DCM or FCM, absent legal compulsion, do not qualify.

If a qualifying block takes effect and is implemented the market will still resolve “Yes” regardless if it is later stayed, reversed, or vacated. 

Actions ordered before the deadline but which take effect only after, will not qulaify. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. 

Will sports prediction markets be banned in any U.S. state in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of Dogecoin in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating Dogecoin does not count as holding Dogecoin reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national Dogecoin reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the US government holds any amount of XRP in its reserves at any point between January 15, 2025, ET and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Note that the US government confiscating XRP does not count as holding XRP reserves.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US government and/or the US federal reserve, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

US national XRP reserve in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.

Clarity Act signed into law in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to establish a de minimis tax exemption on cryptocurrency transactions by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If the tax exemption only applies for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Trump enacts a de minimis crypto tax exemption before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump signs a bill into law or performs any executive action changing US tax law to eliminate capital gains tax on any cryptocurrency assets by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Such a bill must apply to US taxpaying persons in general; if a law applies only to specific companies or institutions, it will not qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market.

If capital gains is eliminated only for specific types or classes of crypto assets (e.g., only Bitcoin or Ethereum, only American issued cryptocurrencies, or only NFTs), it will still count toward a "Yes" resolution for this market.

If the bill is signed into law, or executive action is instituted before the resolution date, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes" regardless of when it takes effect.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the US federal government, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Abstract officially launches a token by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Abstract, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Abstract launch a token by December 31, 2026

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Robinhood offers tokenized versions of U.S.-listed equities to U.S.-based users for trading on its platform or an affiliated app it controls by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET . Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. 

The tokenized equities must track the price of U.S. stocks such as those listed on the NYSE or Nasdaq. They may be structured as synthetic assets, wrapped instruments, or token representations of real equities, but do not need to confer voting rights or direct ownership.

To qualify, U.S.-based users must be able to buy or sell the tokenized equities during the market period. 

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.


Will Robinhood launch stock tokens in the US before 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a U.S government funding lapse occurs on January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A funding lapse is defined as the President failing to sign the relevant bill(s) extending government funding by January 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If a bill extending the funding of the U.S. government is passed and signed by the acting President before January 31, 2026, 12:00 AM ET, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes," any funding lapse will count. If only a portion of the US government is covered by any signed bill(s) extending funding of the US government, and a portion of the US government goes unfunded, this market will still resolve to "Yes".

The primary resolution for this source will be official information from the US government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

U.S. Government Funding Lapse on January 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if it is announced that Jeff Bezos will be, has, or is in the process of selling a majority stake in The Washington Post by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."

An announcement by Jeff Bezos or one of his representatives will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of whether the announced sale actually occurs.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Jeff Bezos however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Bezos announce Washington Post sale in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Rosie O'Donnell's U.S. citizenship is officially rescinded by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution sources will be information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Rosie O'Donnell citizenship revoked in 2025?

On December 16, 2025, President Donald Trump issued a proclamation titled “Restricting and Limiting the Entry of Foreign Nationals to Protect the Security of the United States”, which updated and expanded partial and full suspensions of entry into the U.S. for nationals of various countries (see: https://www.whitehouse.gov/presidential-actions/2025/12/restricting-and-limiting-the-entry-of-foreign-nationals-to-protect-the-security-of-the-united-states/). 

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump issues any executive order, signs any bill into law, or if the Trump administration otherwise takes any formal action which is aimed at fully or partially suspending entry into the U.S. for nationals of any specific, additional country between market issuance and the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

A qualifying action must be aimed at restricting or banning entry into the United States for nationals of a particular country or countries. Blanket actions to restrict entry for individuals holding certain visa classes, or other generalized entry restrictions, which do not target a specific country or countries, will not count.

Additional country refers to any country not subject to a full or partial suspension of entry as of the December 16 proclamation.

Any qualifying government action taken within this market’s timeframe will qualify for a "Yes" resolution, regardless of when the policy takes effect. However, announcements of future or planned bans which are not made official through government action will not qualify.

Any action meeting these criteria will count, even if its implementation is immediately halted or delayed by judicial or other actions.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the US federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Trump suspends U.S. entry for more countries by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ostium Labs officially launches a token by 11:59 PM ET on the date specified in the title. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Ostium Labs, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will Ostium launch a token by December 31, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Panama Canal comes under US control by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, US control means the United States assumes primary operational authority over the canal, either via diplomatic agreement, military action, or any other means.

An official announcement made by the United States and Panama that the Panama Canal will come under US control will qualify, even if the actual transfer of control is yet to occur. Only announcements of official agreements or actions (e.g. executive order, signed legislation, etc.) will count - mere posts on Social Media will not.

The resolution source for this market will be official information from the US Government and the Government of Panama, however a consensus of credible reporting confirming that the Panama Canal has come under US sovereignty will also qualify.

US takes Panama Canal before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if it is announced that Meta Platforms, Inc. has reached a settlement with the Federal Trade Commission over the issues outlined in the Federal Trade Commission v. Meta Platforms, Inc. (Case No. 1:20-cv-03590-JEB) case by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Will Meta settle with the FTC?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if 1 or more earthquakes with a magnitude of 10.0 or higher occur anywhere on Earth between December 8, 2025 12:00 PM ET, and December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef).

If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used. 

After a qualifying earthquake is registered, this market will remain open for 24 hours to account for any revisions to its recorded magnitude. After 24 hours, this market will resolve according to the latest provided data.

10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Supreme Court vacancy in 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Metamask officially launches a token by September 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from Metamask, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.


Will MetaMask launch a token by September 30, 2026?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Barack Obama serves any time in custody in a federal, state, or local U.S. jail or prison between July 22 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the U.S. Government, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Obama in jail in 2025?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if USD.AI officially launches a governance token by March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

The token must be actively and publicly transferable and tradable. Announcements alone do not qualify.

The primary resolution source for this market will be information from USD.AI (https://x.com/USDai_Official), however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one seat on the United States Supreme Court becomes vacant between January 1 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official announcements from the U.S. Government. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.  

Supreme Court vacancy in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if OpenAI completes an Initial Public Offering (IPO) by the listed date ET, as confirmed by official company announcements and credible news sources. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The IPO refers to the first sale of stock by the listed company to the public on any recognized stock exchange.

If OpenAI is acquired by another company that is already public, this market will immediately resolve to "No."

The resolution source for this market is a consensus of credible reporting.

OpenSea blocks US users in 2024?

Market Context

OpenSea blocks US users in 2024?

Rules

OpenSea blocks US users in 2024?

Market Context

OpenSea blocks US users in 2024?

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