Name: 2025 Norway Chess Tournament
Start: 2025-05-02T20:42:26.515212Z
End: 2025-06-06T12:00:00Z

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This is a market on predicting the winner of the Norway Chess tournament, scheduled to take place May 26, 2025 – Jun 6, 2025.

The 2025 Norway Chess tournament is scheduled to take place May 26, – Jun 6, 2025. You can read more about this event here: https://norwaychess.no/en/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Magnus Carlsen wins the 2025 Norway Chess tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If this event is cancelled, or not completed by July 6, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official information from Chess.com, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Magnus Carlsen

The 2025 Norway Chess tournament is scheduled to take place May 26, – Jun 6, 2025. You can read more about this event here: https://norwaychess.no/en/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Hikaru Nakamura wins the 2025 Norway Chess tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If this event is cancelled, or not completed by July 6, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official information from Chess.com, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Hikaru Nakamura

The 2025 Norway Chess tournament is scheduled to take place May 26, – Jun 6, 2025. You can read more about this event here: https://norwaychess.no/en/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Gukesh Dommaraju wins the 2025 Norway Chess tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If this event is cancelled, or not completed by July 6, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official information from Chess.com, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Gukesh Dommaraju

The 2025 Norway Chess tournament is scheduled to take place May 26, – Jun 6, 2025. You can read more about this event here: https://norwaychess.no/en/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Arjun Erigaisi wins the 2025 Norway Chess tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If this event is cancelled, or not completed by July 6, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official information from Chess.com, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Arjun Erigaisi

The 2025 Norway Chess tournament is scheduled to take place May 26, – Jun 6, 2025. You can read more about this event here: https://norwaychess.no/en/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Fabiano Caruana wins the 2025 Norway Chess tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If this event is cancelled, or not completed by July 6, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official information from Chess.com, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Fabiano Caruana

The 2025 Norway Chess tournament is scheduled to take place May 26, – Jun 6, 2025. You can read more about this event here: https://norwaychess.no/en/

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Wei Yi wins the 2025 Norway Chess tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If this event is cancelled, or not completed by July 6, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No". 

If multiple players are declared winner, this market will resolve in favor of the player whose listed last name comes first alphabetically.

The primary resolution source for this market will be the official information from Chess.com, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Wei Yi

 2025 Norway Chess Tournament

This market will resolve to the player who wins the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship, currently scheduled for October 13, 2025, to February 9, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.

If the listed player is eliminated from the championship under the tournament's official rules, this market will resolve to “No.”

The resolution source for this market will be official information from Chess.com, though a consensus of credible reporting may also be used in case of discrepancies.

If the winner is not announced by April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other.”

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025–2026 Speed Chess Championship?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup based off the rules of the NHL.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NHL.


Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?

The 2025 FIDE World Rapid & Blitz Championships are scheduled for December 26-30, 2025 in Doha, Qatar.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Magnus Carlsen wins both the FIDE World Rapid Open Championship and the FIDE World Blitz Open Championship at this event. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If Carlsen is eliminated from contention to win either the World Rapid Open Championship or the World Blitz Open Championship, this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If 2025 FIDE World Rapid & Blitz Championships are cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the World Rapid and Blitz Championships tournament organizers (https://worldrapidandblitz2025.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Magnus Carlsen wins both World Rapid & Blitz Championships?

The 2025 FIDE World Rapid Championship chess tournament is scheduled for December 26-28, 2025 in Doha, Qatar.

This market will resolve to the listed player who wins the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship.

If a listed player is eliminated from this tournament, the relevant market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If this event is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the World Rapid and Blitz Championships tournament organizers (https://worldrapidandblitz2025.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Rapid Open Championship?

The 2025 FIDE World Blitz Championship chess tournament is scheduled for December 29-30, 2025 in Doha, Qatar.

This market will resolve to the listed player who wins the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship.

If a listed player is eliminated from this tournament, the relevant market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If this event is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the World Rapid and Blitz Championships tournament organizers (https://worldrapidandblitz2025.fide.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Magnus Carlsen win the 2025 FIDE World Blitz Open Championship?

This is a polymarket on whether the listed team will win the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the tournament (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 UEFA Champions League is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Champions League (https://www.uefa.com/uefachampionsleague/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League?

The 2025 Tech Mahindra Global Chess League is scheduled for December 14-24, 2025 in Mumbai, India.

This market will resolve according to the listed team that wins the 2025 Tech Mahindra Global Chess League.

If a listed team is eliminated from this competition, the relevant market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If multiple teams tie as winners of the Tech Mahindra Global Chess League, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure used by the Tech Mahindra Global Chess League.

If this event is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within this timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the Tech Mahindra Global Chess League (https://globalchessleague.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Triveni Continental Kings win the 2025 Tech Mahindra Global Chess League?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2026 NBA Finals based off the rules of the NBA.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals?

This is a polymarket on whether the listed team will win the 2025–26 UEFA Europa League.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed team is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 UEFA Europa League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed team to win the tournament (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 UEFA Europa League is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from UEFA Europa League (https://www.uefa.com/uefaeuropaleague/). A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Aston Villa win the 2025-26 UEFA Europa League?

The 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship will premiere on Peacock this fall (https://www.pokernews.com/news/2025/07/national-heads-up-poker-championship-return-49301.htm). This market predicts which player will win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player wins the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship is canceled or not completed by December 31, 2025, 11:59 pm ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

If the final players agree to a prize‑money chop, this market will resolve based on the player who is awarded the official tournament trophy.

The primary resolution source for this market will be Peacock, along with streaming coverage on PokerGO and PokerStars. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Sam Soverel win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship?

This is a market to predict which athlete will win the 2025 ESPYS award for Best NHL Player.

If the listed player wins the 2025 ESPYS award for Best NHL Player, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025 ESPYS are cancelled or postponed past August 16, 2025, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be ESPN (https://www.espn.com/espys/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Leon Draisaitl win the 2025 ESPYS award for Best NHL Player?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed player officially qualifies for the 2026 FIDE World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2026 FIDE World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament is cancelled or rescheduled past January 1, 2027, this market will resolve to "No".

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the FIDE Candidates Tournament organizers; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Hikaru Nakamura qualify for the 2026 World Chess Championship Candidates Tournament?

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 Serie A.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 Serie A. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to win the league (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 Serie A season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from Serie A. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Inter win the 2025–26 Serie A league?

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 English Premier League.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 English Premier League. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to win the league (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 English Premier League season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the English Premier League. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League?

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 Bundesliga.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 Bundesliga. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to win the league (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 Bundesliga season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from the Bundesliga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Bundesliga?

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 French Ligue 1. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to win the league (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 French Ligue 1 season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from French Ligue 1. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will PSG win the 2025–26 French Ligue 1?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Green Bay Packers win the NFC North in the 2025-2026 NFL Season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for the Green Bay Packers team to win the NFC North based on the rules of the NFL (e.g., they are mathematically eliminated from finishing first in the division), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

Will the Green Bay Packers win the NFC North?

This market will resolve according to the country that wins the most medals (including gold, silver, and bronze) at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics, scheduled for February 6-22, 2026.

In the case of ties, the ordered list for most medals won will use most gold medals won as a tiebreaker (e.g. If Norway and China tie for most medals won, and Norway wins more gold medals than China, Norway will be ranked first and China will be second). If this also results in a tie, the country whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group, will be ranked higher.

This market will resolve based on the medal figures as they stand after medals are awarded for the final event in the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Later changes to medal counts will not be considered toward the resolution of this market.

If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are partially completed and then cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve based on the medals awarded in the completed events. If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are entirely cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source will be official information from the International Olympic Committee (https://www.olympics.com/).

Will Norway win the most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Los Angeles Rams win the 2025-26 NFC Championship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the NFC Championship based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. they are eliminated in the playoff bracket), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

Will the Rams win the NFC Championship?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Canadian federal election is officially scheduled for a date prior to October 2029, by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the election date be declared, not that the election actually occur within the market timeframe. (e.g. if on December 23, 2025 an election is scheduled for April 23, 2026, this market will resolve to "Yes").

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the Canada, However a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

Another Canada election called in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl LX. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the Super Bowl based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. they are eliminated in the playoff bracket), this market will resolve immediately to "No".

Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026?

This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, as announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

If multiple listed individuals or entities jointly receive the prize, the market will resolve to a single winner. If Donald Trump, Volodymyr Zelenskyy,  Benjamin Netanyahu, Vladimir Putin, or Elon Musk are among the recipients, the market will resolve to the highest-ranked among them in that exact order of precedence. If none of those five are among the winners and the prize is awarded jointly to at least one listed individual and at least one listed organization, the market will resolve in favor of the individual. If no prioritized individuals are among the winners and all listed recipients are of the same type (all individuals or all organizations), the market will resolve to the person whose last name, or the entity’s name, comes first in alphabetical order as listed in this market.

If no official announcement regarding the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize has been made by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other."

The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement from the Norwegian Nobel Committee.

Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?

This is a market to predict which athlete will win the 2025 ESPYS award for Best Tennis Player.

If the listed player wins the 2025 ESPYS award for Best Tennis Player, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025 ESPYS are cancelled or postponed past August 16, 2025, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be ESPN (https://www.espn.com/espys/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Coco Gauff win the 2025 ESPYS award for Best Tennis Player?

This is a polymarket on whether the listed club will win the 2025–26 La Liga.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed club is officially crowned the winner of the 2025–26 La Liga. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If at any point it becomes impossible for the listed club to win the league (e.g. they are mathematically eliminated), the market will resolve to "No".

If the 2025–26 La Liga season is canceled or not completed by October 1, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source will be official information from La Liga. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga?

This market will resolve according to the country that wins the most gold medals at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics, scheduled for February 6-22, 2026.

In the case of ties, the ordered list for most gold medals won will use most overall medals won as a tiebreaker (e.g. If Norway and China tie for most gold medals won, and Norway wins more overall medals than China, Norway will be ranked first and China will be second). If this also results in a tie, the country whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group, will be ranked higher.

This market will resolve based on the medal figures as they stand after medals are awarded for the final event in the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Later changes to medal counts will not be considered toward the resolution of this market.

If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are partially completed and then cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve based on the gold medals awarded in the completed events. If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are entirely cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source will be official information from the International Olympic Committee (https://www.olympics.com/).

Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the date for the next Polish parliamentary election is set between June 2 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Polish election is announced within the stated timeframe. The date the election is scheduled to take place on will have no effect on the resolution to this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Poland however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Polish snap election called in 2025?

This polymarket will resolve to "Yes" if Magnus Carlsen publicly apologizes to Hans Niemann by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

To qualify for a "Yes" resolution:

Magnus Carlsen must publicly apologize, mention Hans Niemann by name, and clearly express regret for the backlash or consequences Niemann faced related to the 2022 cheating controversy.

The apology must be made before December 31, 2025 at 11:59 PM ET and be publicly accessible.

Statements that are vague, do not name Niemann, or express only general regret will not qualify as "Yes" for this market. 

The primary resolution source will be official statements from Magnus Carlsen or his representatives. A consensus of credible reporting from reputable chess or news outlets may also be used.

Will Magnus Carlsen apologize to Hans Niemann in 2025?

This is a market to predict which athlete will win the 2025 ESPYS award for Best Soccer Player.

If the listed player wins the 2025 ESPYS award for Best Soccer Player, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025 ESPYS are cancelled or postponed past August 16, 2025, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be ESPN (https://www.espn.com/espys/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Christian Pulisic win the 2025 ESPYS award for Best Soccer Player?

This market will resolve according to the country that wins the second most medals (including gold, silver, and bronze) at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics, scheduled for February 6-22, 2026.

In the case of ties, the ordered list for most medals won will use most gold medals won as a tiebreaker (e.g. If Norway and China tie for most medals won, and Norway wins more gold medals than China, Norway will be ranked first and China will be second). If this also results in a tie, the country whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group, will be ranked higher.

This market will resolve based on the medal figures as they stand after medals are awarded for the final event in the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Later changes to medal counts will not be considered toward the resolution of this market.

If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are partially completed and then cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve based on the medals awarded in the completed events. If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are entirely cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source will be official information from the International Olympic Committee (https://www.olympics.com/).

Will Canada win the second most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

This market will resolve to the continent of the country that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup, currently scheduled for June 11-July 19, 2026.

For example, if France wins the tournament, the market will resolve to Europe.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is cancelled, postponed after December 31, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The definitive source of the continent for each country will be World Population Review (https://worldpopulationreview.com/country-rankings/list-of-countries-by-continent).

The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/) and the World Population Review; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Europe win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the Denver Broncos win the 2025-26 AFC Championship. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the AFC Championship based on the rules of the NFL (e.g. they are eliminated in the playoff bracket), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

Will the Broncos win the AFC Championship?

This market will resolve according to the country that wins the third most medals (including gold, silver, and bronze) at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics, scheduled for February 6-22, 2026.

In the case of ties, the ordered list for most medals won will use most gold medals won as a tiebreaker (e.g. If Norway and China tie for most medals won, and Norway wins more gold medals than China, Norway will be ranked first and China will be second). If this also results in a tie, the country whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group, will be ranked higher.

This market will resolve based on the medal figures as they stand after medals are awarded for the final event in the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Later changes to medal counts will not be considered toward the resolution of this market.

If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are partially completed and then cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve based on the medals awarded in the completed events. If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are entirely cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source will be official information from the International Olympic Committee (https://www.olympics.com/).

Will Canada win the third most medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

This market will resolve according to the country that wins the second most gold medals at the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics, scheduled for February 6-22, 2026.

In the case of ties, the ordered list for most gold medals won will use most overall medals won as a tiebreaker (e.g. If Norway and China tie for most gold medals won, and Norway wins more overall medals than China, Norway will be ranked first and China will be second). If this also results in a tie, the country whose name comes first in alphabetical order, as listed in this market group, will be ranked higher.

This market will resolve based on the medal figures as they stand after medals are awarded for the final event in the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics. Later changes to medal counts will not be considered toward the resolution of this market.

If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are partially completed and then cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve based on the gold medals awarded in the completed events. If the 2026 Milano-Cortina Winter Olympics are entirely cancelled or postponed after December 31, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source will be official information from the International Olympic Committee (https://www.olympics.com/).

Will Germany win the second most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?

This market will resolve according to the national team that wins the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this team to win the FIFA World Cup based on the rules of FIFA (e.g., they are eliminated in the knockout stage), this market will resolve immediately to “No”.

If the 2026 FIFA World Cup is permanently canceled or has not been completed by October 13, 2026, 11:59 PM this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from FIFA, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This market will resolve according to the NHL team that wins the 2025–26 Presidents' Trophy (best regular season record by points; tiebreakers per NHL rules).

Will the Colorado Avalanche win the 2025–2026 NHL Presidents' Trophy?

This is a market to predict which athlete will win the 2025 ESPYS award for Best Golfer.

If the listed player wins the 2025 ESPYS award for Best Golfer, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, it will resolve to "No".

If the 2025 ESPYS are cancelled or postponed past August 16, 2025, this market will resolve to "Other".

The primary resolution source for this market will be ESPN (https://www.espn.com/espys/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2025 ESPYS award for Best Golfer?

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the greatest number of seats in the Swedish Parliament (Riksdag) in this election.

If voting in the Swedish parliamentary election does not occur by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

In the event of a tie between multiple parties for the most seats won, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition which received a greater number of valid votes. In the event that results in a tie, this market will resolve in favor of the party or coalition whose listed abbreviation appears first in alphabetical order.

This market's resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party or coalition in the Swedish Parliament. 

This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Swedish government, specifically the Swedish Election Authority (Valmyndigheten) (https://www.val.se/).

Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) win the most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Russia commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Finland between May 28 and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Finland or Russia as of May 28, 2025, 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country.

Hybrid or “grey zone” operations conducted by unmarked personnel will qualify if they are confirmed to be Russian operatives and are intended to establish de facto control over territory, as occurred in Crimea (2014) or Donbas (2014–2022).

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.


Will Russia invade Finland in 2025?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the next Ukrainian presidential election is scheduled by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

This market is about whether a date for the next Ukrainian election is announced between February 14, 2025, and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Whether the election is supposed to take place during this timeframe or later will have no effect on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Government of Ukraine; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.


Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026?

This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026.

If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This polymarket will resolve to the player who wins the 2025 ATP Next Gen Finals Men’s Singles Tournament.

The market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed player wins the 2025 ATP Next Gen Finals Men’s Singles Tournament. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If at any point it becomes impossible for this player to win the tournament per the official rules of the 2025 ATP Next Gen Finals, this market will resolve to “No”.

The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Learner Tien win the 2025 ATP Next Gen Finals Men’s Singles Tournament

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between September 19, 2025, 6 PM ET, and December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET:

- Artificial Intelligence is named TIME's Person of 2025
- GPT-5 scores above 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam
- AI wins IMO gold medal
- AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark
- AI scores ≥85% on ARC-AGI-2

Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.

If resolution-relevant information regarding the events mentioned above is not available by December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, this market will remain open until January 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. If by that date there is still no clear information indicating that one of the listed events has occurred,  this market will resolve to “Yes”.

The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI.png
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/AI2.png

Nothing Ever Happens: AI Edition

This market will resolve according to the team that wins Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup group stage, scheduled for June 11-27, 2026.

If multiple teams tie as group winners, this market will resolve according to the official tiebreak procedure of the 2026 FIFA World Cup.

If the World Cup group stage is cancelled, postponed after September 30, 2026, or there is otherwise no winner declared for this group within that timeframe, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from FIFA (https://www.fifa.com/); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Will Netherlands win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the New York Knicks win the 2025–2026 NBA Eastern Conference Finals. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

This market will resolve to “No” if it becomes impossible for this team to win the 2025–26 NBA Eastern Conference Finals based on the rules of the NBA.

If the 2025-26 NBA Eastern Conference Finals winner is not announced by June 30, 2026, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be information from the NBA.

2025 Norway Chess Tournament

Magnus Carlsen
$555,501 Vol.
Yes

Hikaru Nakamura
$182,866 Vol.
No

Gukesh Dommaraju
$217,493 Vol.
No

Arjun Erigaisi
$120,202 Vol.
No

Fabiano Caruana
$214,110 Vol.
No

Wei Yi
$63,745 Vol.
No

Market Context

2025 Norway Chess Tournament

Rules

2025 Norway Chess Tournament

Market Context

2025 Norway Chess Tournament

About

Related

2025 Norway Chess Tournament

Magnus Carlsen$555,501 Vol.Yescircle check

Hikaru Nakamura$182,866 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Gukesh Dommaraju$217,493 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Arjun Erigaisi$120,202 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Fabiano Caruana$214,110 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Wei Yi$63,745 Vol.Nocircle xmark

Market Context

2025 Norway Chess Tournament

Rules

2025 Norway Chess Tournament

Market Context

2025 Norway Chess Tournament

About

Related

Magnus Carlsen
$555,501 Vol.
Yes

Hikaru Nakamura
$182,866 Vol.
No

Gukesh Dommaraju
$217,493 Vol.
No

Arjun Erigaisi
$120,202 Vol.
No

Fabiano Caruana
$214,110 Vol.
No

Wei Yi
$63,745 Vol.
No