**Maggie Goodlander holds a 100% implied probability in the NH-02 Democratic primary market because she is the incumbent representative seeking a second term and secured a decisive victory in the September 8 primary against her sole listed opponent, state Representative Paige Beauchemin.** Recent polling from the University of New Hampshire and Saint Anselm College showed Goodlander leading by roughly 40 points among likely voters, driven by her substantial fundraising edge—more than $4 million raised compared to Beauchemin’s under $50,000—and broader name recognition across the district. Beauchemin positioned her campaign as a progressive alternative focused on working-class issues, but limited resources and lower visibility prevented any meaningful erosion of the incumbent’s support. With the primary concluded and results confirming Goodlander’s win by approximately 80% to 20%, trader consensus reflects the completed outcome while noting that any late procedural challenges or certification delays remain the only theoretical paths to altering the result.