Traders assign a 98.6 percent implied probability that NATO will not dissolve before 2027 because the alliance of 32 members continues formal operations, including the 2026 Ankara summit that reaffirmed Article 5 commitments and initiated updates to its Political Guidance document for the coming decade. Recent U.S. pressure for greater European defense spending and troop posture reviews has prompted strategic planning for potential American adjustments, yet legal requirements for congressional approval of any U.S. withdrawal, combined with ongoing joint exercises and alliance decision-making processes, create substantial structural barriers to rapid dissolution. Realistic scenarios that could still shift odds include an unprecedented unilateral U.S. action bypassing statutory constraints or a sudden cascade of member-state exits triggered by acute geopolitical shocks within the narrow remaining window.